GLOOMY POLITICAL AND PUBLIC REACTION TO ABU MAZEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 002017 SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA; NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR; JOINT STAFF FOR LTGEN SELVA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV KPAL KWBG IS SUBJECT: GLOOMY POLITICAL AND PUBLIC REACTION TO ABU MAZEN ANNOUNCEMENT REF: JERUSALEM 2004 Classified By: Consul General Daniel Rubinstein for reasons 1.4 (b,d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Summary: Following Abu Mazen's public statement that he does not want to run for another term as Palestinian Authority (PA) president, senior Fatah and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) members continue to urge him to reconsider, and so far seem unwilling to consider alternative candidates or plans of action. Hamas reacted to Abu Mazen's November 5 announcement (Reftel) by describing the development as an "internal affair," and claiming that the USG and Israel were "abandoning" of Abu Mazen. At the grassroots level, Fatah activists described the announcement as a harbinger of darker days ahead, and argued that Abu Mazen represented the "last salvo" of hope for peace with Israel. End Summary. FATAH AND PLO GLOOMY, UNWILLING TO ACCEPT DECISION -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In the wake of Abu Mazen's televised announcement on the evening of November 5 that he did not want to run as a presidential candidate in the next election (currently scheduled for January 24),Post contacts among Fatah and PLO leadership described the mood in both organizations as "gloomy." Following their failure to dissuade Abu Mazen from going public with his intentions (Reftel),members of the Fatah Central Committee (FCC) issued a statement that Abu Mazen remains "the only candidate trusted by the people and Fatah to lead the Palestinians in the upcoming stage." PLO spokesman Yaser Abed Rabbo announced publicly that the PLO Executive Committee "rejected" Abu Mazen's desire not to run in upcoming elections, and urged Abu Mazen to reconsider. Fatah and PLO officials told Post that "no one" from either organization was prepared to register to run in Abu Mazen's place, and that Abu Mazen would remain the sole candidate for the PA presidency "even if he doesn't run." HAMAS: DECISION AN INTERNAL AFFAIR -------------- ¶3. (U) Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said in a press statement that Abu Mazen's "threat" not to run was "an internal Fatah affair that does not concern the Hamas movement," and that "we (Hamas) view this step as a message of anger that is directed to his American and Israeli friends who abandoned him and turned him into a mere tool." Abu Zuhri continued, "Instead of turning to the Americans, Mahmoud Abbas should turn to the Palestinian people and tell them that the settlement (freeze) process has failed." Gaza-based Fatah member Faisal Abu Shahla told local press that Hamas security officials had announced a ban on the holding of Fatah rallies on November 11 to commemorate the death of Yaser Arafat. (Fatah sources expect rallies in the West Bank to result in a show of public support for Abu Mazen.) GRASSROOTS FOCUSED ON "FAILURE" OF PEACE PROCESS -------------- --- ¶4. (C) Immediately after Abu Mazen's speech, which was broadcast shortly after 8:30 p.m. local time, Fatah officials organized demonstrations of several hundred in Ramallah and Jenin. Demonstrators chanted slogans of support for Abu Mazen, urged him to reconsider his decision not to run, criticized recent USG and Israeli approaches to the peace process, and called for a full settlement freeze. Yousef Barakeh, who joined the demonstrations in Ramallah, told Post that he and other grassroots activists considered Abu Mazen the "last salvo of hope for peace" for the Palestinian people, and that he expected more radical elements of the Palestinian street to fill the vaccuum created by Abu Mazen's decision. "Hamas will point to the decision as a sign of the failure of the peace process," Barakeh predicted. ¶5. (C) Barakeh speculated that Abu Mazen's decision resulted from personal and public "frustration with the peace process." "Whether he sticks to his decision or he backs down eventually," Barakeh said, "this is a very strong message that pursuing the peace process with Israel is not working. The situation is dark. There is a collective sense in the neighborhood in which I live that we all share, that JERUSALEM 00002017 002 OF 002 if Israel and the United States cannot make peace with Abu Mazen, it means they simply cannot make peace with the Palestians. This is an indication that the Palestinian peace camp led by Abu Mazen has lost, and Israel is simply not interested." Barakeh predicted a large turnout for November 11 rallies in support of Abu Mazen "as a symbol of the Palestinian pursuit of a dignified peace process, that restores the peoples' rights." RUBINSTEIN