WEST BANK POLLSTERS COMMENT ON RECENT PUBLIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 JERUSALEM 001967 SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA; NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2024 TAGS: IS KDEM KPAL KPAO KWBG PGOV PTER SUBJECT: WEST BANK POLLSTERS COMMENT ON RECENT PUBLIC OPINION POLLS, SUPPORT FOR ABBAS Classified By: CG Daniel Rubinstein, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Three early-October polls showed a decrease in support for both Hamas and Fatah following the decision of PA President Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen) to support a deferral of the Goldstone report. Palestinians still expressed greater trust in Abu Mazen and Fatah than in former Hamas PM Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas. Pollsters agreed that Abu Mazen's decline in popularity has stabilized for now, and that Fatah and the PLO appear to have successfully distanced themselves from Abu Mazen's Goldstone decision. PA Information Office Director (and former pollster) Ghassan al-Khatib predicted that Abu Mazen's ratings would drop again if he relaunched negotiations without a settlement freeze. Palestinians covered in the polling appear only partially aware of U.S. support to the PA and efforts to improve West Bank security. Marwan Barghuti appears to be the most popular Palestinian leader, followed by Abu Mazen, Mustafa Barghuti, and Salam Fayyad. End Summary. SUPPORT FOR ABU MAZEN HAS DROPPED... -------------- ¶2. (C) Ghassan al-Khatib told PolOff October 27 that Abu Mazen's popularity in September (prior to his decision to support a deferral of the Goldstone report) was high, following his success in convening the Fatah General Congress and Palestinian National Council, as well as his "principled" position on a settlement freeze. Al-Khatib said an October poll by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) showed a decrease in support for Abu Mazen; he was seen as "caving" when he met Israeli PM Netanyahu in a September 22 trilateral without a settlement freeze, and was blamed for "mishandling" the Goldstone report. Al-Khatib said Abu Mazen's October 24 decree calling for elections in January 2010 will likely boost his popularity, if Palestinians see him as defending the Basic Law and responding to public support for elections on schedule. He predicted that Abu Mazen would lose support quickly were he to relaunch negotiations without a settlement freeze. ¶3. (C) JMCC's poll showed that the drop in support for Abu Mazen did not affect other Palestinian leadership bodies -- including Fatah, the PLO, and the PA Cabinet -- because they acted quickly to distance themselves from Abu Mazen's Goldstone decision, al-Khatib said. He said the poll showed no change in support for Haniyeh, and a slight increase in Fayyad's popularity. ...BUT MAY BE ON THE REBOUND; FATAH SUPPORT STABLE -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Nader Said-Foqahaa, General Director of the independent research and polling center AWRAD, told PolChief on October 19 that the aftermath of the Goldstone report caused a decline in support for the "four Palestinian pillars," Abu Mazen, Fatah, Haniyeh, and Hamas. Said-Foqahaa based his assessment on two AWRAD polls -- one conducted September 31 to October 3, as the Goldstone story broke, and the other conducted October 11, after the story had been in the media for a week. Support for Abu Mazen hit a low point just before his October 11 speech explaining his actions on the Goldstone report, according to Said-Foqahaa, and began to rebound shortly thereafter, in part because attacks on Abu Mazen by al-Jazeera evoked sympathy among Palestinians. Support for Hamas dropped significantly from October 3 to October 11, he said, probably in reaction to Hamas's "excessive" criticism of Abu Mazen. PALESTINIANS LOSING CONFIDENCE IN USG -------------- ¶5. (C) Said-Foqahaa said Fatah's support in the West Bank was rising again. (He warned that support does not necessarily translate into votes during elections.) He added that polls show Palestinians "losing confidence" in the USG, as they perceive the Administration to be compromising with Israel on settlements. Nearly half of his respondents do not believe that USG assistance to the PA security forces plays a positive role, probably in part because Hamas labels it "colonialist." "UNDECIDED" PALESTINIANS OUTNUMBER SUPPORT FOR FATAH, HAMAS -------------- ¶6. (C) Jamil Rabah, Director of Near East Consulting (NEC), discussed with PolOff on October 21 the results of a poll from October. Rabah emphasized that polls cannot predict JERUSALEM 00001967 002 OF 003 voting behavior because of the high number of Palestinians who are or claim to be "undecided." As an example, he shared data showing that 40 percent of Palestinians trust Fatah more than any other Palestinian faction; 18 percent trust Hamas; and roughly 40 percent are undecided. The same poll shows that 39 percent of Palestinians trust Abu Mazen, and 18 percent trust Haniyeh, but another 40 percent trust "no one." Rabah said that, based on other questions in the poll, he believes "undecided" Palestinians are ideologically closer to Fatah, but are attracted to Hamas's well-run media campaign. He also said that Palestinian trust in the USG has fallen consistently over the past several months. ABU MAZEN STILL PALESTINIANS' "MOST TRUSTED" LEADER -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Faisal Awartani, CEO of Alpha International, echoed Said-Foqahaa's comments that the Goldstone report decreased support for all Palestinian leaders. Awartani did not conduct a poll in October, but commented on other polls that he had seen. He said he did not believe that Abu Mazen lost significant support as a result of the Goldstone report. Palestinians still recognize Abu Mazen as their "best chance to move forward," and would vote for him over any other leader, he said. He said that he believes polls underestimate the level of support for Fayyad, who, he claimed, would win an election against any Hamas candidate. Awartani said Palestinians perceive an increase in security in the West Bank, but do not attribute this to USG efforts. UNPUBLISHED DATA FROM AWRAD POLL CONCERNING USG, PALESTINIAN LEADERS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The following results, from a poll conducted October 1 to 12, were not published, but were provided to Post by Said-Foqahaa. The numbers indicated are percentages of Palestinians who replied. (WB = West Bank; GS = Gaza Strip) Q: Do you believe that the following are playing a positive role in bringing about more security, rule of law, and personal safety? American support for the PA security agencies Yes Total 19.0 WB 20.4 GS 16.7 To an extent Total 26.5 WB 25.7 GS 27.8 No Total 45.5 WB 42.5 GS 50.4 NA/don't know Total 9.0 WB 11.3 GS 5.1 EU support for the PA security agencies Yes Total 24.2 WB 22.8 GS 26.4 To an extent Total 27.7 WB 27.8 GS 27.6 No Total 39.7 WB 37.8 GS 42.9 NA/don't know Total 8.4 WB 11.6 GS 3.1 Q: In your estimation, which of the following parties is paying the most support to Palestinian development-related projects? The EU Total 64.4 WB 58.5 GS 74.2 Arab Countries Total 14.8 WB 14.3 GS 15.6 The USA Total 11.4 WB 14.5 GS 6.2 Other (specify) Total 2.3 WB 3.2 GS 0.9 Don't know Total 7.1 WB 9.5 GS 3.1 Q: Do you know of any project in your community supported by American funding (such as USAID()? Yes Total 45.4 WB 50.1 GS 37.6 No Total 49.2 WB 43.3 GS 58.9 NA Total 5.4 WB 6.5 GS 3.6 Q: Did you ever see-watch-hear an ad (TV, radio, newspaper, billboard) that publicizes American funding support to the Palestinian? Yes Total 43.4 WB 47.4 GS 36.7 No Total 51.5 WB 46.4 GS 60.2 Don,t know Total 5.2 WB 6.4 GS 3.1 Q: Have you personally or your community benefited from support from American funding (USAID()? Yes Total 24.4 WB 27.4 GS 19.3 No Total 66.8 WB 62.2 GS 74.4 Don,t know Total 8.8 WB 10.4 GS 6.2 Q: In comparison with other sources of funding, how do you evaluate American funding support to the Palestinians? Better Total 13.4 WB 14.5 GS 11.6 Same Total 37.5 WB 36.6 GS 38.9 JERUSALEM 00001967 003 OF 003 Inferior Total 38.0 WB 35.0 GS 42.9 NA/Don,t know Total 11.2 WB 14.0 GS 6.7 Q: How do you evaluate American funding support in the following sectors: Civic education and democracy promotion Good Total 15.9 WB 15.2 GS 16.9 Medium Total 27.0 WB 26.9 GS 27.1 Weak Total 47.1 WB 42.0 GS 53.8 Don,t know Total 10.1 WB 14.8 GS 2.2 Infrastructure (e.g.,) Good Total 15.8 WB 19.6 GS 9.6 Medium Total 31.0 WB 33.8 GS 26.4 Weak Total 46.2 WB 36.2 GS 62.7 Don,t know Total 7.0 WB 10.4 GS 1.3 Health Good Total 18.1 WB 22.9 GS 10.2 Medium Total 32.1 WB 32.6 GS 31.3 Weak Total 42.7 WB 34.2 GS 56.7 Don,t know Total 7.1 WB 10.3 GS 1.8 Education (KGs, schools and universities) Good Total 16.4 WB 19.1 GS 12.0 Medium Total 31.2 WB 32.3 GS 29.3 Weak Total 44.2 WB 36.5 GS 56.9 Don,t know Total 8.2 WB 12.0 GS 1.8 Economic development Good Total 11.7 WB 12.2 GS 10.9 Medium Total 25.0 WB 25.1 GS 24.9 Weak Total 53.4 WB 48.3 GS 61.8 Don,t know Total 9.9 WB 14.4 GS 2.4 Q: How do you evaluate American political support for the Palestinian people? Good Total 4.1 WB 4.9 GS 2.9 Medium Total 16.9 WB 14.7 GS 20.7 Weak Total 74.8 WB 75.2 GS 74.2 Don,t know Total 4.1 WB 5.3 GS 2.2 Q: If presidential elections took place and only the three following candidates ran, which one would you vote for? Mahmud Abbas Total 27.9 WB 26.4 GS 30.2 Ismayil Haniyeh Total 17.5 WB 14.2 GS 23.1 Marwan BarghoutiTotal 33.2 WB 35.5 GS 29.3 Undecided Total 8.9 WB 10.4 GS 6.4 Will not vote Total 12.5 WB 13.5 GS 10.9 Q: If presidential elections took place and only the two following candidates ran, which one would you vote for? Mahmud Abbas Total 40.0 WB 37.4 GS 44.4 Salam Fayyad Total 12.1 WB 11.6 GS 12.9 Undecided Total 14.0 WB 16.4 GS 10.0 Will not vote Total 33.9 WB 34.6 GS 32.7 Q: If presidential elections took place and only the two following candidates ran, which one would you vote for? Mahmud Abbas Total 40.4 WB 38.3 GS 43.8 Mustafa Barghouti Total 21.0 WB 18.2 GS 25.8 Undecided Total 12.3 WB 15.0 GS 8.0 Will not vote Total 26.3 WB 28.6 GS 22.4 Q: If presidential elections took place and only the two following candidates ran, which one would you vote for? Mustafa Barghuti Total 28.4 WB 22.3 GS 38.4 Salam Fayyad Total 26.9 WB 25.2 GS 29.6 Undecided Total 14.8 WB 18.2 GS 9.1 Will not vote Total 30.0 WB 34.3 GS 22.9 RUBINSTEIN