EGYPTIAN REPRESENTATIVE TO PA ON RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 001488 SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA, NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KWBG KPAL IS EG SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN REPRESENTATIVE TO PA ON RECONCILIATION AND HAMAS Classified By: Deputy Principal Officer Greg Marchese for Reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Egyptian Representative to the PA Yasir Othman told D/SEMEP David Hale that GOE mediators made no progress during a visit to Amman and Ramallah the week of August 17. Gaps remain on a proposed factional committee, and may have widened on the issue of Hamas prisoners in the West Bank. Talks scheduled for August 25 have been postponed, and no new date has been set. Othman said Hamas remains firmly in control in Gaza, despite clashes last weekend with Jund Ansar Allah. Finally, he said that Fatah emerged strengthened from its recent Congress, and an emboldened Abu Mazen appears sincerely committed to elections in January 2010, despite practical difficulties. End Summary. Reconciliation: No New Ideas, Talks Delayed -------------- ¶2. (C) In an August 20 meeting with D/SEMEP David Hale in Ramallah, Egyptian Representative to the Palestinian Authority Yasir Othman provided a debrief on Egyptian mediation efforts. Othman said Egyptian General Intelligence Service Deputy Mohammed Ibrahim visited Amman and Ramallah the week of August 17 before moving on to Damascus on August ¶20. "He came with no new ideas," Othman noted, adding, "his goal was only to listen, to see if it is possible to restart talks now that the Fatah Congress is over." ¶3. (C) No progress was been made in closing the gaps on key issues (prisoners, elections, security, or a proposed factional committee),Othman said. With regard to the factional committee, Othman said senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad had told him that Hamas "wants the committee to have an executive function, and more clarity as to how it relates to the governments in the West Bank and Gaza. We told them it would not replace the (PA) government, and would only exist in the transitional period before elections." ¶4. (C) On prisoners, the gap has actually widened, Othman said. In the run-up to the recent Congress, Fatah had offered to free as many as 600 prisoners in exchange for Hamas permitting Gaza delegates to travel to Bethlehem, he said. This was well beyond the "hundred or so" prisoners Fatah had offered in the previous round of talks in Cairo. Now, Hamas' expectations had been raised, but Fatah officials made clear their offer was specific to the Congress. Mohammed Ibrahim told Hamas representatives it might be possible to structure a three-stage deal, with an initial release, a second release in conjunction with a factional agreement, and a third stage at an undetermined future date. Othman said the Israelis had made clear any prisoner release would affect their willingness to relax restrictions on West Bank movement and access, further complicating this issue. ¶5. (C) Othman confirmed that the next round of factional talks (planned for August 25 in Cairo) would be postponed due to a lack of progress, and to avoid conflicting with an August 26-27 meeting of the PLO National Council in Ramallah. Hamas Politics: Zahar Ascendant? -------------- ¶6. (C) In response to a question from D/SEMEP Hale about internal Hamas politics, Othman said Hamas military wing commander Ahmed Jabari "has the upper hand" in Gaza now. Interior Minister Fathi Hamad remains influential, as does former Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar, he added. "We are trying to give more attention to Zahar because he is becoming more moderate compared to the others," Othman noted. He described Khaled Misha'al as the "axis" between senior leaders, adding that Jabari depends on Misha'al for financial resources. ¶7. (C) With regard to August 14-15 clashes between Hamas forces in Gaza and the Jund Ansar Allah group, Othman said the Egyptians received advanced warning and increased security along the border as a result. "From our point of view this was a good development," he noted, adding, "these Salafist groups are not directly related to al Qaeda but embrace its ideas." He said Hamas retains complete control over the security situation in Gaza, and dismissed the possibility that Salafist groups represent a threat to Hamas rule. "They (Hamas) were ruthless in how they handled the situation, but in the long term there will be a payoff for Hamas," he added. Fatah: Sights Set On Elections -------------- ¶8. (C) Fatah emerged from the Sixth Congress in a stronger position domestically, Othman said. "They are gaining popularity, and they feel now is their chance to regain a majority in parliament," he noted. In recent meetings with Abu Mazen and senior Fatah officials, Othman said he came away with the impression that calls for Palestinian elections in January 2010 were more than just a tactical ploy against Hamas. "I feel that Abu Mazen is seeking legitimacy in advance of resuming negotiations. He is already reactivating the PLO. If he is re-elected as president, and if Fatah wins a majority, it repairs the damage Fatah suffered in (the 2006 Legislative Council elections)," he said. ¶9. (C) Hale asked how elections could be held in the absence of a factional agreement. Othman said he had heard several "ideas" from senior Fatah officials, none of which seemed practical in his view. One senior Fatah official told him if Hamas refuses to agree to elections, Gaza would be declared a "rebellious region," but Othman questioned the practical impact of such a declaration. Another idea involved adding Gaza-based Fatah leaders to the electoral slate in the West Bank. "These are not solutions," Othman said, "and I told Abu Mazen we remain unconvinced that elections are a viable option in the absence of reconciliation." Nonetheless, he noted that Abu Mazen's inner circle and key Fatah leaders seem to view elections as the only way out of the domestic political stalemate. Othman said Abu Mazen did pledge not to call elections before consulting the Egyptians, since such a move would signal the end of GOE mediation efforts. WALLES