YESHA COUNCIL WEAKEND, NEEDS TO DELIVER TO SETTLER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001398

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA; NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR; JOINT
STAFF FOR LTGEN SELVA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL IS
SUBJECT: YESHA COUNCIL WEAKEND, NEEDS TO DELIVER TO SETTLER
CONSTITUENTS

Classified By: DPO Greg Marchese, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Although it emerged weaker from the 2005
Gaza disengagement and 2006 evacuation of Amona outpost, and
is now challenged by a younger generation of radical
settlers, the YESHA Council remains the strongest settler
organization, according to ConGen contacts. One expert
claimed that a unilateral GOI decision to freeze settlement
construction and evacuate outposts would harden settlers
against cooperating on these issues. Several contacts said
that settlers expect PM Netanyahu to allow settlement
construction to accommodate "natural growth." In return, our
contacts said, settlers might be more willing to accept the
evacuation of some outposts. End summary.


YESHA Council is weaker than before...
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2. (C) ConGen contacts told POLOFF that the YESHA Council,
the umbrella organization of West Bank settlement
communities, remains in a weakened position, following its
failure to prevent Gaza disengagement in 2005 and the
evacuation of the Amona outpost in 2006. Anat Roth, a PhD
candidate at Bar Ilan University and an expert on the YESHA
Council, told POLOFF on August 6 that, in the period leading
up to the Amona evacuation, the GOI actively delegitimized
the YESHA Council through the press and by cutting off its
access to GOI decision-makers. For example, Roth said,
then-PM Olmert refused to negotiate with YESHA leadership
prior to the evacuation of Amona.


3. (C) Peace Now's Hagit Ofran said that the traditional
settler leadership is being challenged by a younger
generation of "opposition" settlers. These settlers organize
and mobilize resistance to outpost evacuations, usually via
the internet and SMS, according to Ofran. Unlike the YESHA
Council, they are willing to violently challenge GOI
institutions such as the IDF and Border Police, Ofran said.


... but settlers have no alternative to it
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4. (C) Despite its weakened position, Roth said, the YESHA
Council remains the largest and strongest settler leadership
group. Roth opined that radical settler youth do not
represent a true threat to its legitimacy. In a August 10
meeting with PolOff, Ofra settlement spokesperson Ruchie
Avital said that radical, violent settlers are a small
minority, and that their popular support is limited. Both
Roth and Avital linked the strength of the YESHA Council to
its commitment to influencing the GOI through dialogue and
negotiations, rather than advocating for violent resistance
to GOI measures.


Could pressure drive settlers
in a more extreme direction?
--------------


5. (C) Roth cautioned that unilateral steps by the GOI to
freeze settlement construction or evacuate outposts could
harden settler attitudes against cooperation. A unilateral
mass evacuation of outposts would be a "big mistake," she
claimed. Roth opined that settlers resist outpost
evacuations not necessarily because they support those
specific outposts, but because they fear a "snowball effect,"
in which the GOI dismantles a few outposts, then a few more,
and eventually some settlements east of the barrier. Roth
noted that, in the current political context, settlers are
likely to harden their positions on construction and outposts
to prevent a "snowball" from gaining momentum.


Settlers: YESHA Council and
PM Netanyahu need to "deliver"
--------------


6. (C) According to Roth, settlers fear that they are about
to witness a repeat of the past: a right-wing prime minister
making unilateral concessions to advance the Israel-U.S.
relationship at the expense of settlers' interests. Roth
cautioned that, if settlers perceive PM Netanyahu is going
down this path, they might abandon the YESHA Council's
commitment to negotiation in favor of violent resistance.


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7. (C) Roth said that the YESHA Council "must win" the
debate about construction for "natural growth." Otherwise,
it will have delivered nothing to its constituents. Settlers
expect PM Netanyahu to "deliver" on "natural growth," Avital
explained. "Otherwise, we will suffocate." Avital noted
that, for settlers, accommodating "natural growth" is the
priority. If this goal is achieved, she said, settlers are
likely to accept the evacuation of some small outposts, but
not significant outposts like Migron and Amona. According to
Avital, most settlers still have faith in PM Netanyahu, but
"his rope is getting shorter."
WALLES