YESHA COUNCIL WEAKEND, NEEDS TO DELIVER TO SETTLER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001398 SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA; NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR; JOINT STAFF FOR LTGEN SELVA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL IS SUBJECT: YESHA COUNCIL WEAKEND, NEEDS TO DELIVER TO SETTLER CONSTITUENTS Classified By: DPO Greg Marchese, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Although it emerged weaker from the 2005 Gaza disengagement and 2006 evacuation of Amona outpost, and is now challenged by a younger generation of radical settlers, the YESHA Council remains the strongest settler organization, according to ConGen contacts. One expert claimed that a unilateral GOI decision to freeze settlement construction and evacuate outposts would harden settlers against cooperating on these issues. Several contacts said that settlers expect PM Netanyahu to allow settlement construction to accommodate "natural growth." In return, our contacts said, settlers might be more willing to accept the evacuation of some outposts. End summary. YESHA Council is weaker than before... -------------- ¶2. (C) ConGen contacts told PolOff that the YESHA Council, the umbrella organization of West Bank settlement communities, remains in a weakened position, following its failure to prevent Gaza disengagement in 2005 and the evacuation of the Amona outpost in 2006. Anat Roth, a PhD candidate at Bar Ilan University and an expert on the YESHA Council, told PolOff on August 6 that, in the period leading up to the Amona evacuation, the GOI actively delegitimized the YESHA Council through the press and by cutting off its access to GOI decision-makers. For example, Roth said, then-PM Olmert refused to negotiate with YESHA leadership prior to the evacuation of Amona. ¶3. (C) Peace Now's Hagit Ofran said that the traditional settler leadership is being challenged by a younger generation of "opposition" settlers. These settlers organize and mobilize resistance to outpost evacuations, usually via the internet and SMS, according to Ofran. Unlike the YESHA Council, they are willing to violently challenge GOI institutions such as the IDF and Border Police, Ofran said. ... but settlers have no alternative to it -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite its weakened position, Roth said, the YESHA Council remains the largest and strongest settler leadership group. Roth opined that radical settler youth do not represent a true threat to its legitimacy. In a August 10 meeting with PolOff, Ofra settlement spokesperson Ruchie Avital said that radical, violent settlers are a small minority, and that their popular support is limited. Both Roth and Avital linked the strength of the YESHA Council to its commitment to influencing the GOI through dialogue and negotiations, rather than advocating for violent resistance to GOI measures. Could pressure drive settlers in a more extreme direction? -------------- ¶5. (C) Roth cautioned that unilateral steps by the GOI to freeze settlement construction or evacuate outposts could harden settler attitudes against cooperation. A unilateral mass evacuation of outposts would be a "big mistake," she claimed. Roth opined that settlers resist outpost evacuations not necessarily because they support those specific outposts, but because they fear a "snowball effect," in which the GOI dismantles a few outposts, then a few more, and eventually some settlements east of the barrier. Roth noted that, in the current political context, settlers are likely to harden their positions on construction and outposts to prevent a "snowball" from gaining momentum. Settlers: YESHA Council and PM Netanyahu need to "deliver" -------------- ¶6. (C) According to Roth, settlers fear that they are about to witness a repeat of the past: a right-wing prime minister making unilateral concessions to advance the Israel-U.S. relationship at the expense of settlers' interests. Roth cautioned that, if settlers perceive PM Netanyahu is going down this path, they might abandon the YESHA Council's commitment to negotiation in favor of violent resistance. JERUSALEM 00001398 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Roth said that the YESHA Council "must win" the debate about construction for "natural growth." Otherwise, it will have delivered nothing to its constituents. Settlers expect PM Netanyahu to "deliver" on "natural growth," Avital explained. "Otherwise, we will suffocate." Avital noted that, for settlers, accommodating "natural growth" is the priority. If this goal is achieved, she said, settlers are likely to accept the evacuation of some small outposts, but not significant outposts like Migron and Amona. According to Avital, most settlers still have faith in PM Netanyahu, but "his rope is getting shorter." WALLES