FOUR PRE-CONGRESS VIEWS ON FATAH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001266 SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA. NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS KDEM KPAL KWBG IS SUBJECT: FOUR PRE-CONGRESS VIEWS ON FATAH Classified By: Deputy Principal Officer Greg Marchese for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. In separate meetings, contacts from various segments of Fatah and a prominent analyst discussed expectations for the upcoming Congress on August 4. One said Fatah had little to show for its platform of peaceful resistance, and worried that any U.S.-Israeli "deal" on settlements or continued IDF incursions could undercut moderate voices at the Congress. Another expressed optimism that internal Fatah elections would be fair and a new leadership would emerge. A third said senior leaders were focused on personal interest rather than reform, and predicted Fatah would not be prepared for PA elections by next January. Finally, an analyst said the success of the Congress hinges on the behavior of key voting blocs (particularly PA employees and the Fatah Tanzim),Fatah's political message, and whether Hamas will allow Gaza-based delegates to attend. End Summary. The Establishment "Outsider" -------------- ¶2. (C) Qalqilia Governor Rabeeh Khandaqji, a Brigadier General in the PA security forces who returned to the West Bank in 1994, said the fact of the Congress alone represents a victory for the movement. It shows the movement can mobilize its internal (West Bank/Gaza) and overseas members toward a common purpose. Khandaqji, who is a delegate, said he disagrees with elements of Abu Mazen's political message, particularly his opposition to Palestinian demonstrations during the recent Gaza conflict. "We have nothing to show for Oslo, and this can't last forever," he said, adding "Fatah's fate is tied to a two-state solution." In response to a question from Polchief about what message Fatah should advocate, he said "a two-state solution achieved through nonviolence, for now." ¶3. (C) Khandaqji said several variables make predictions about the Congress difficult. Externally, a USG deal with the GOI on settlements would play into the hands of hard-liners in Fatah who oppose Abu Mazen's categorical position on nonviolence. Continued IDF incursions and public USG comments linking Palestinian security efforts with Israel's security undermine moderates insider Fatah, he said. "We are not the Israelis' subcontractors on security, nor yours," he added. Internally, the presence of elected district committees delegates at the Congress for the first time creates many unknowns. Elected District Committee Representative -------------- ¶4. (C) Mahmud Walwil, General Secretary of the Qalqilya Fatah District Committee and a delegate to the Congress, said the international community and Israel will play an important role in setting the political context for the Congress. "I support a two-state solution," he said, "but if there is no progress (toward this goal) there are other options too." Walwil said IDF incursions undermined Fatah politically, noting the "humiliation" of recent raids on homes of a Fatah parliamentarian and retired general. With regard to the Congress itself, he expressed confidence it would occur on schedule, but also said attendance of Gaza-based delegates was essential to a successful event. He predicted "Old Guard" efforts to retain their Fatah Central Committee (FCC) seats by appointment would fail, and said he was confident internal elections would be free and fair. The Government Technocrat -------------- ¶5. (C) Salah Zuhayka (PA Deputy Minister of Religious Affairs and a delegate) said Fatah's leaders are focused on improving their political positions at the expense of developing a political program or preparing for elections. Zuhayka divided the leadership into three camps: "Old Guard" FCC members hoping to maintain their positions by reappointment, an alignment headed by Mohammad Dahlan, and a group connected to Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala'a). Zuhakya described the Abu Ala'a group (of which he is a member) as the most focused on transforming Fatah from a revolutionary movement into a real political party. He said Dahlan had successfully amassed enough support in the West Bank for election to the FCC, even if Gaza delegates are unable to participate. However, much of this support was purchased, he alleged, and Dahlan remains unpopular among Fatah cadres. ¶6. (C) Zuhayka said three factors could split the movement in the near term: if diaspora members feel disenfranchised, if JERUSALEM 00001266 002.2 OF 002 key constituencies feel underrepresented, and if Dahlan takes a stronger leadership role, "as many members no longer trust him." He added, "the Congress will change Fatah," he said, "but I don't know if it will be for the better or the worse." Beyond the Congress, he said PA parliamentary and presidential elections are essential next January if Abu Mazen wants to maintain his legitimacy. However, he was pessimistic that Fatah could overcome its internal divisions in time for elections. An Independent View -------------- ¶7. (C) According to Mahdi Abdul Hadi, director of the Palestinian Academic Society for the Study of International Affairs and a prominent independent political voice, three issues merit close attention as the Congress approaches. First, where will the two main voting blocs (PA government employees and the Fatah Tanzim) direct their votes at the Congress? He said two Fatah power centers are assembling informal slates of candidates for FCC - a bloc of former Gazans led by Mohammed Dahlan and a Hebron-centered grouping led by former West Bank PSO Director Jibril Rijoub, current FCC member Nasir Yusif, and others. It is not at all clear the main voting blocs will line up behind either, Abdul Hadi said. ¶8. (C) The second issue is what will emerge as Fatah's political message. Abdul Hadi said many Fatah members disagree with Abu Mazen's statements against demonstrations during the recent Gaza conflict - "it is like being an employee of Israel." He predicted similar sentiments would emerge from Fatah leaders at the Congress. Finally, will Hamas allow the Gaza-based Fatah delegates to attend the Congress? Abdul Hadi said he raised the issue directly with Hamas Political Office Director Khaled Misha'al on July 16. He said Misha'al had replied, "have you seen the list? They are all Dahlan men? How can I justify letting them go?" Abdul Hadi said he told Misha'al that Hamas would lose more if it is seen as contributing to Fatah's disunity. Comment: Common Threads -------------- ¶9. (C) In these and other meetings with contacts below the level of the senior Fatah leadership, a number of common threads appear to emerge. First, all are certain the Congress will occur on schedule. At the same time, they insist it cannot occur without the Gaza-based delegates in attendance. With no solu:n]%D4SQ;Qy"t, our contacts may have inflated expectations. Second, there is little overlap between the tidy descriptions of leadership dynamics our contacts offer, suggesting a more complex reality of constantly shifting alliances. Third, many of these contacts say Fatah's political message should differ from Abu Mazen's own. While they agree Fatah's support for a two-state solution is a bedrock principle distinguishing the party from Hamas, most add that peaceful resistance cannot go on forever in the absence of political progress. WALLES