SAUDI GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY REQUESTS US ASSISTANCE IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JEDDAH 000190 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP - PLEASE PASS ACTION REQUEST TO US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY; EMBASSY ABU DHABI PLEASE PASS TO USGS TEAM IN AL-AIN; INFO CA, DS/IP/NEA, OES E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC PGOV SA SUBJECT: SAUDI GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY REQUESTS US ASSISTANCE IN ANALYZING SEISMIC DATA AFTER RECENT EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY REF: JEDDAH 0174 JEDDAH 00000190 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. In May 26 meeting with the Saudi Geological Society President to discuss the recent earthquakes in northwestern Saudi Arabia, post received a request for a visit to Saudi Arabia by experts from the United States Geological Survey (USGS),to be funded at SAG expense, in order to assist in analyzing data collected by Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) officials. See Action Request details para 6. While SAG took precautions last week to evacuate more than 30,000 residents, SGS sees small risk of imminent volcanic eruption or danger to civilian population or Yanbu industrial infrastructure. However, concern was flagged about structural soundness of residential buildings. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) MAGMA MOVEMENT -- NO IMMINENT VOLCANIC ERUPTION: In May 26 meeting on recent earthquakes in Saudi Arabia (reftel),Dr. Zuhair Nawab, President of the Saudi Geological Society (SGS),told Pol/Econoff that the minor earthquakes which occurred last week in the northwestern part of the Kingdom were a direct result of the movement of magma (molten or partially molten rock) around the Al-Ais volcano. Nawab said these were "not major quakes" and a volcanic eruption is not necessarily imminent, contrary to claims of some journalists and bloggers. Blogs have reported that magma has moved from 8 kilometers beneath the ground surface to 4 kilometers; however, Dr. Nawab says the actual range of magma movement has been from 10 to 7 kilometers, with the level fluctuating within the latter range. He added that, contrary to reports, the Saudi Geological Society has received no credible verification of emissions of gas and vapor from the earth. ¶3. (U) EVACUATIONS A PRECAUTION: Nawab emphasized that even though the recent earthquakes were minor with no casualties, the Saudi Arabian Government recommended that residents living in the affected areas evacuate temporarily to ensure their safety. He conceded that much of the housing in the area may not be earthquake resistant, with some buildings constructed of mud without reinforcing steel. Although he did not provide exact figures, Nawab estimated that more than 30,000 residents were moved from Al-Ais to other parts of western Saudi Arabia. He added that SAG covered all expenses related to relocation, including housing and food. ¶4. (U) LOW OVERALL DANGER LEVEL BUT HOUSING A WORRY: With regard to the effect of a volcanic eruption on the population, Nawab stated that he did not believe an eruption would cause much damage since the nearest town to the volcano is 18 kilometers away. According to his estimates, a volcanic eruption could possibly shoot volcanic ash 500 meters into the atmosphere and 2 kilometers away, with prevailing winds carrying the ash approximately 10 kilometers. As for rocks, known as "volcanic bombs," sometimes projected during an eruption, Nawab estimated that such projectiles could travel as high as 50 meters over a distance of probably not more than 100-200 meters. Nawab indicated that he is mainly worried about the effect of future earthquakes in the Al-Ais region on buildings and housing which may not be structurally sound. While he stressed that the rise in the magnitude of recent earthquakes (3.0 to 5.9 on the Richter scale) is "somewhat alarming," he noted that not even experts can truly predict whether the magnitude of the earthquakes will rise or fall. ¶5. (U) NO CURRENT DANGER TO YANBU INDUSTRY: With regard to the effect on industrial infrastructure, Nawab stated categorically that there is currently no threat. Authorities from the nearby Yanbu Industrial City, which contains the Royal Commission, King Fahad Industrial Port, Yanpet Petrochemical Plant, Yanbu Industrial College and other facilities, have asked whether their complex might be endangered. Nawab said he assured officials that as long as the earthquakes remained at or near current levels, there was no danger. However, he noted that Yanbu officials have begun to install their own meters and gauges to detect seismic movement. ¶6. (U) ACTION REQUEST: Dr. Nawab asked the Consulate to arrange for a 2-4 week visit to Saudi Arabia of "one or two US experts" from the US Geological Survey in order to review the seismic data the Saudi Geological Society has collected and to assist with analysis. SAG will pay all travel costs and accommodation. Post recommends an early response to this JEDDAH 00000190 002.2 OF 002 request and asks NEA/ARP to provide appropriate USGS contact. POC at ConGen Jeddah will be Pol/Econ officer Munir Madyun, MadyunMM@state.gov; tel. 966-2-667-0080, ext. 4042, mobile 966-50-559-2715. QUINN