INDONESIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN BEGINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000958 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: INDONESIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN BEGINS REF: JAKARTA 934 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The three candidates--Yudhoyono, Megawati, Kalla--competing in Indonesia's July 8 presidential election officially kicked off the one-month campaign period on June ¶2. Candidates are engaging the public with media, discussion groups and billboard appeals. Televised debates are also planned. Mass campaign rallies will be held from June 11 until the "cooling off" period beginning July 4. President Yudhoyono remains the odds on favorite to win the election. As usual in Indonesia, the elections are expected to be largely peaceful and basically free and fair. END SUMMARY. OFF TO A (MOSTLY QUIET) START ¶2. (U) Indonesia's presidential campaign has officially begun. President Yudhoyono arrived in Jakarta on June 2 from a visit to South Korea and held some small events with supporters. Vice President Jusuf Kalla--the candidate of the Golkar Party--also held some small meetings with supporters. In contrast, former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, head of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P),began the campaign in Sumatra with stops that included public meetings. ¶3. (SBU) Vice presidential candidates were also low-key but busy on the first campaign day. Boediono (one name only), President Yudhoyono's running mate, met with a newspaper editorial board and held a private meeting with visiting Wharton Business School students (he is a Wharton graduate). Kalla's vice-presidential candidate, retired general Wiranto, hosted an internal campaign meeting. Prabowo Subianto, Megawati's VP running mate, held a campaign team meeting in Jakarta, then gave a television interview. Meanwhile, Kalla's wife and Wiranto's wife attempted to capitalize on their image and appeal as pious Muslims by shopping, with media coverage, for Muslim headscarves. (Note: Reftel reviews a recent campaign controversy involving comments by Islamic party leaders criticizing Ibu Ani, President Yudhoyono's wife, for not wearing the jilbab, a Muslim head covering.) CAMPAIGN SCHEDULE ¶4. (U) The month-long campaign period is divided into several discrete phases. June 2 opens the official campaign period, marked by billboards, cars and buses bearing the candidate's party colors and their faces, media advertisements, and small discussion groups. Parties will be allowed to hold mass rallies from June 11 until July 4, when a cooling off period will take effect until the day of the election, July 8. ¶5. (U) Televised debates are also planned. The first presidential debate will take place on June 18 and focus on governance. The second debate will take place on June 23 and focus on national identity. The third debate is slated for July 2 and will focus on democracy and regional issues. The vice presidential candidates are scheduled to debate on June ¶30. With most Indonesians getting their news from television, the debates could prove important politically for the candidates. ¶6. (U) If a candidate gets over 50 percent of support on July 8, he or she will win the presidency outright. If no candidate achieves that mark, there will be a second round in September involving the top two finishers. PRESIDENTIAL PLANS ¶7. (SBU) President Yudhoyono is planning an active campaign. According to his spokesman, he plans to launch a 11-city campaign tour on June 12. This campaign tour will begin in Merauke, Papua, in eastern Indonesia. While an area of limited population, Merauke is an important city for Papuans. By stopping there, the President will be underscoring his commitment to national unity and to trying to develop eastern Indonesia, a region which is poorer than much of the rest of the country. ¶8. (SBU) Yudhoyono's strategy is to offer more of his government's generally well-received economic and social welfare policies in a sort of "why mess with success" appeal. A solid orator who exudes credibility, Yudhoyono also is making full use of the presidential bully pulpit, for example JAKARTA 00000958 002 OF 002 addressing a large audience of Muslim youth leaders recently and emphasizing the country's relatively strong economy in the face of the international financial crisis. The campaign is also stressing protection of human rights in order to gain support of Indonesian civil society. This, given Yudhoyono's relatively strong track record and the negative reputations of Prabowo and Wiranto (two former generals with poor human rights records) A FORMER PRESIDENT TRIES AGAIN ¶9. (SBU) Yudhoyono's main contender, Megawati, now well-funded with wealthy running mate Prabowo by her side, is pulling out all the stops. Megawati has declared that she will use "air" and "land" strategies: flooding the air waves and print media with ads and the ground with volunteers at the grassroots level. ¶10. (SBU) Megawati's team has a populist "pro-poor" platform which includes: using state enterprises to revive the economy; credit disbursement for the poor; creating two million hectares of new plantation areas; public works; health care; education; and, environmental initiatives. Critics have noted that the plantation idea in particular is flimsy; it has been attempted and failed before. A VP'S PRIORITIES ¶11. (SBU) Kalla, while saying that his team's strategy was "a secret," is currently veering away from the economic issues his challengers are presenting. He is clearly counting on the support of Islamic organizations, drawing on his ties with Nahdlatul Ulama, the country's largest Muslim organization, to broaden his appeal with Muslim voters. In addition to holding meetings with Muslim leaders, he has published a book titled "Devout Wives of Future Leaders," featuring his wife and Wiranto's wife dressed in jilbabs. YUDHOYONO A BIG FAVORITE ¶12. (C) Voters, according to the latest surveys, strongly favor Yudhoyono. Many observers expect this to be a one round race. One contact recently told Pol/C that it would take "a real miracle" for Megawati or Kalla to defeat Yudhoyono. ¶13. (U) In the meantime, NGO's are urging the Election Commission to work hard to improve its performance given the (generally low intensity) problems that took place during the April legislative elections. That said, the July election is expected to be a much less complicated one than the legislative elections, featuring only one election, one ballot, and three candidates. Mission has spoken with KPU contacts who say that their organization will be better prepared for the July polls. As usual in Indonesia, the elections are expected to be largely peaceful and basically free and fair. HUME