OFFICIAL RESULTS IN -- PRESIDENT'S PARTY CROWNED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000820 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: OFFICIAL RESULTS IN -- PRESIDENT'S PARTY CROWNED WINNER REF: A. JAKARTA/POL:SHARSHA - OPS CENTER 05-09-09 E-MAIL ¶B. JAKARTA 812 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Indonesia's Election Commission (KPU) has officially announced the results of the April 9 parliamentary elections. As projected earlier, President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD) won big. While nine political parties met the threshold needed to seat elected representatives in Parliament, only PD reached the threshold required to nominate a Presidential candidate on its own without a coalition. This makes the re-election path of President Yudhoyono--who already holds a big lead in the polls ahead of the July election--that much easier. Turnout in April was roughly 70%, a figure in line with that of previous national elections. END SUMMARY. OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCING THE RESULTS ¶2. (SBU) Working hard to meet its regulatory deadline, the KPU officially announced the final results of the April parliamentary elections late on May 9. Only nine of the 38 competing political parties garnered the 2.5% of the national vote required to take seats in the new Parliament which will sit in October. Despite some initial fears last month, there were no rallies or marches of any seriousness protesting the results. Only a few persons have filed lawsuits with the Constitutional Court, contesting poll results in several voting districts. More suits could be filed in the next few days before the May 16 deadline for protesting results. No one expects these protests to spur serious opposition to what observers considered largely free and fair elections. ¶3. (SBU) President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat finished first with ease (and as projected in "quick counts" published last month). Vice President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party and former president Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) finished second and third, respectively. Four Islamic-based parties came in the middle of the pack: the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS); the National Mandate Party (PAN); the United Development Party (PPP); and, the National Awakening Party (PKB). At the bottom of the pack were two new parties founded by former generals turned politicians, Wiranto's People's Conscience Party (Hanura) and Prabowo Subianto's Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra). The official results are listed in Para 8 below. PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO: THE BIG WINNER ¶4. (C) As mentioned, President Yudhoyono's PD party was the big winner. It won a clear plurality with nearly 21 percent of the vote. Building on President Yudhoyono's popularity and reform agenda, PD positioned itself as the clear front-runner in the July presidential elections. Political parties or coalitions must win 20 percent of the popular vote or 25 percent of seats in Parliament in order to field a candidates in the presidential elections. PD met these thresholds. ¶5. (C) As a result, only PD can go it alone, although PD has already announced it intentions to combine with smaller parties in order to form a stronger and more broad-based ruling coalition (see ref B). In forming such a coalition, PD is already attracting formidable support (see reftels). (Note: In addition to the coalition support it has already lined up, PD has been working with PDI-P--which is Indonesia's official opposition party--on a possible coalition. Up to now, PDI-P has been firmly anti-Yudhoyono. If PD lines up PDI-P support, it would be in almost an unassailable position come July.) TURNOUT HIGH ¶6. (SBU) As usual in Indonesian elections, turnout was high at about 70% of the electorate. The polling, however, was somewhat marred by the large number of invalid votes, between 10-15 percent of votes, according to Gordon West of the Democratic Reform Support Program, a NGO. Gordon, an Amcit, noted that democratic elections around the world usually yield a invalid rate of between 1.5 to 3 percent. ¶7. (C) Preliminary reports from the Election Supervisory Commission indicated that the large number of invalid ballots were largely due to voter confusion on how to mark the complicated election ballots--voters used incorrect marks, JAKARTA 00000820 002 OF 002 multiple marks or marked one party and then checked the candidate from a different party. Gordon attributed the confusion to poor voter education and inadequate administration by the KPU, which had many new and inexperienced members who were overwhelmed by their task. The implications for the July Presidential election will be the need for the GOI to work hard to improve the process. THE OFFICIAL RESULTS ¶8. (U) The parliamentary election results with percentage of national vote and percentage of seats in Parliament: --Partai Democrat (PD) percent of national vote (21%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (26%). --Golkar Party percent of national vote (14%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (19%). --PDI-P percent of national vote (14%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (17%). --PKS percent of national vote (8%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (11%). --PAN percent of national vote (6%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (7%). --PPP percent of national vote (5%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (7%). --PKB percent of national vote (5%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (5%). --Gerindra percent of national vote (1%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (5%). --Hanura percent of national vote (4%) and estimated percent of seats in Parliament (3%). HUME