PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR'S INSIGHTS ON POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000804

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR E. PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PDEM ID
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR'S INSIGHTS ON POSSIBLE
RUNNING MATE CHOICE

REF: JAKARTA 779 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a May 5 meeting with DepPol/C,
Presidential Advisor T.B. Silalahi said President Yudhoyono
is leaning toward choosing State Minister Hatta Rajasa as his
vice-presidential running mate. The President still has not
made his mind up, however (Yudhoyono has said he will
announce his decision by May 10). Silalahi added that the
President was continuing to work to maintain links with the
Golkar Party despite his very public break with current VP
Kalla, the Golkar Chair. He also offered some ideas on what
the next Cabinet might look like if Yudhoyono indeed wins
re-election in July. END SUMMARY.

STATE MINISTER AS RUNNING MATE CHOICE?


2. (C) Jakarta continues to be abuzz with rumors and reports
about whom President Yudhohono might choose as his VP running
mate for the July 8 election. According to Presidential
Adviser T.B. Silalahi, Yudhoyono favors his loyal State
Minister Hatta Rijasa for the spot. Silalahi told DepPol/C,
"The decision is in his pocket but SBY could change his mind
at any time." Yudhoyono compiled a list of all the possible
candidates and rated them for loyalty, integrity, capability,
public support, etc., Silalahi said. He crossed off all
names except Hatta's who met "95% of the requirements." The
President has announced that he will make public his decision
by May 10.


3. (C) Yudhoyono believes Hatta is very loyal and honest,
Silalahi remarked. With a degree in chemical engineering
from a top Indonesian university, he served as Minister of
Research and Technology under former president Megawati and
is considered very capable. Hatta also hails from outside
Java (Palembang, South Sumatra),thus providing a
counterbalance to Yudhoyono's Javanese background. While
Hatta is a member of another political party than the
President's, he is not beholden to it. Because Hatta is
affiliated with a major political party, he brings political
support with him, however. His party, PAN (the National
Mandate Party),has a large following among the country's 30
million Muhammadiyah members, the country's second largest
Islamic movement, Silalahi commented.


4. (C) Hatta also has the support of Yudhoyono's closest and
most trusted adviser, his wife Ani (see more below). "Madame
Ani loves him, everyone loves him," Silalahi said. Another
factor favoring the 56-year-old Hatta is that he does not
appear to have ambitions to succeed Yudhoyono, and Yudhoyono
would prefer to groom his own successor at the end of his
second term in 2014 (if he indeed wins re-election).


5. (C) Other names are being bandied about. Per reftels,
other informed sources have told us that respected economist
Boediyono (one name),Chairman of the Bank of Indonesia
(Central Bank) is a leading candidate. Another brilliant
technocrat under consideration is Finance Minister Sri
Mulyani. However, Silalahi said their lack of a political
base of support is too large a liability. We have also heard
of a number of other names, including Irman Gusman of
Sumatra, who serves as the deputy of the upper house of
parliament (DPD).


6. (C) Islamic-leaning notables are also an unlikely choice.
Silalahi dismissed Hidayat Nur Wahid, a leader of the
Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party (PKS),and his
chances of getting the VP running mate nod. He said this
would alienate Indonesia's non-Muslim and Chinese minorities,
a small but very influential segment of Indonesian society.
SBY is also worried about a possible PKS agenda to institute
Shariah law, and what this would do to the fabric of
Indonesia's pluralistic, secular society.

YUDHOYONO'S SPLIT WITH HIS VP


7. (C) Silalahi also commented on Yudhoyono's very public
break with current VP Jusuf Kalla. It was at heart "a clash
of cultures," Silalahi said--the humble, polite Yudhoyono
from Java island versus the brash Kalla from Sulawesi island.
Silalahi described Kalla's failed overtures to Yudhoyono to
secure a promise that he would repeat as VP running mate. At
the final meeting at which Kalla asked outright whether he
would be on the ticket, Yudhoyono responded by asking Golkar
(Kalla's party) to submit three names. Kalla felt humiliated

JAKARTA 00000804 002 OF 002


and the next day Kalla announced he would run for President.


8. (C) Silalahi added that the relationship had been full of
distrust. Kalla has taken hundreds of decisions without
consulting SBY or even informing him afterwards. SBY takes a
long time to make decisions so ministers went to Kalla for
quick decisions, some good, some bad, but all without going
through the chain of command.


9. (C) Also, the President's wife Ani Bambang Yudhoyono has
always disliked Kalla for his direct style (some contacts
assert that Kalla is additionally a business competitor with
Ani's family, which is another reason to dislike him). Ani
is very influential, making many of Yudhoyono's decisions,
Silalahi said. Ani is one of the few advisors Yudhoyono
totally trusts. She is extremely bright and engaging, he
said. She also has pedigree of three generations of
decorated military officers. She is an active supporter of
many women's and children's organizations. Silalahi said Ani
is among those who Yudhoyono and his inner circle are
considering as presidential timber in 2014.

STILL TRYING TO WORK WITH GOLKAR


10. (C) The President is also trying to mend fences with
elements of the influential Golkar Party. Yudyoyono is still
seeking to restore the coalition with Golkar, Silalahi
emphasized, but it is too late for Golkar to get the VP
running mate slot even if Golkar rejects Kalla's move to
break away from Yudhoyono. Besides, none of the Golkar
candidates come close to meeting Yudhoyono's standards.
Yudhoyono is fond of People's Welfare Minister Aburizal
Bakrie, but the Lapindo mud volcano fiasco that his company
caused in East Java carries too much political baggage. The
Sultan of Yogyakarta is not at all popular outside Central
Java, Silalahi said.

THE NEXT CABINET IF YUDHOYONO WINS


11. (C) Silalahi also speculated about the next Cabinet
(assuming that Yudhoyono wins re-election). Asked whether it
was Yudhoyono's desire to have fewer political and more
technocratic-type ministers, Silalahi said only to a certain
extent was this even feasible. SBY has no choice but to let
parties choose some Cabinet positions as part of coalition
horse trading. He cannot tell other political party leaders
who they can pick for posts. Parties are going to choose
their most loyal members for Cabinet. He said about half the
new Cabinet's posts would be awarded on merit, half on
political patronage.


12. (C) Silalahi outlined what he said were Yudhoyono's
priorities if elected to a second five-year term:
-- Economic growth
-- Good relations with other countries, particularly the U.S.
-- Anti-corruption
-- Fighting terrorism
HUME