VP ADVISER REVIEWS ONGOING POLITICAL MANEUVERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 000724 DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR E. PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PDEM ID SUBJECT: VP ADVISER REVIEWS ONGOING POLITICAL MANEUVERING REF: JAKARTA 719 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) Pol/C met April 24 with Gembong Prijono, one of Vice President Jusuf Kalla's closest advisers. Prijono confirmed that Vice President Kalla was prepared to run for president against President Yudhoyono in the July 8 election, adding "it is too late for their alliance -- there is basically a political divorce between the two." Kalla was heartened that he had received the support of his party, Golkar, in April 23 meetings to go ahead and to try to form a coalition so that he could get his name on the presidential ballot (see reftel). (Note: Septel reviews reports of tensions within Golkar, with some in the party still wanting to maintain links with Yudhoyono.) ¶2. (C) Prijono commented that Kalla had wanted to remain on the ticket with Yudhoyono, but felt that the President no longer wanted him on it. At this point, the possibility of reconciliation was "very slim," though "not impossible." President Yudhoyono, he said, felt that Kalla had taken "too much credit" for the successes of the administration and Yudhoyono (and influential First Lady Ibu Ani) resented that. When asked, he responded that Yudhoyono was leaning toward selecting State Secretary Hatta Rajasa as his VP pick. Hidayat Nur Wahid of the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati were also possibilities. (Note: Per reftels, numerous other names are being thrown around as possible Yudhoyono VP picks.) ¶3. (C) Yudhoyono was the "massive favorite" to win another term in office, according to Prijono. It was possible that Yudhoyono might face up to two other challengers on July 8: Kalla and his Golkar-led ticket plus an Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P) ticket probably led by former president Megawati Sukarnoputri. It was possible, he allowed, that Golkar and PDI-P might link up and agree to run jointly against Yudhoyono. "But no matter what, Yudhoyono had the decisive upper hand, having seized the political center," he remarked. ¶4. (C) When questioned, Prijono replied that VP Kalla and the President were fully committed to working together closely until their term concluded in October. Their split was "very difficult," he noted, but the two knew that the country required effective leadership and management, and they were committed to continue to provide that. HUME