VP ADVISER REVIEWS ONGOING POLITICAL MANEUVERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 000724


DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR E. PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV PDEM ID
SUBJECT: VP ADVISER REVIEWS ONGOING POLITICAL MANEUVERING

REF: JAKARTA 719 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) Pol/C met April 24 with Gembong Prijono, one of Vice
President Jusuf Kalla's closest advisers. Prijono confirmed
that Vice President Kalla was prepared to run for president
against President Yudhoyono in the July 8 election, adding
"it is too late for their alliance -- there is basically a
political divorce between the two." Kalla was heartened that
he had received the support of his party, Golkar, in April 23
meetings to go ahead and to try to form a coalition so that
he could get his name on the presidential ballot (see
reftel). (Note: Septel reviews reports of tensions within
Golkar, with some in the party still wanting to maintain
links with Yudhoyono.)


2. (C) Prijono commented that Kalla had wanted to remain on
the ticket with Yudhoyono, but felt that the President no
longer wanted him on it. At this point, the possibility of
reconciliation was "very slim," though "not impossible."
President Yudhoyono, he said, felt that Kalla had taken "too
much credit" for the successes of the administration and
Yudhoyono (and influential First Lady Ibu Ani) resented that.
When asked, he responded that Yudhoyono was leaning toward
selecting State Secretary Hatta Rajasa as his VP pick.
Hidayat Nur Wahid of the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice
Party (PKS) and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati were
also possibilities. (Note: Per reftels, numerous other
names are being thrown around as possible Yudhoyono VP
picks.)


3. (C) Yudhoyono was the "massive favorite" to win another
term in office, according to Prijono. It was possible that
Yudhoyono might face up to two other challengers on July 8:
Kalla and his Golkar-led ticket plus an Indonesian Party of
Democratic Struggle (PDI-P) ticket probably led by former
president Megawati Sukarnoputri. It was possible, he
allowed, that Golkar and PDI-P might link up and agree to run
jointly against Yudhoyono. "But no matter what, Yudhoyono
had the decisive upper hand, having seized the political
center," he remarked.


4. (C) When questioned, Prijono replied that VP Kalla and
the President were fully committed to working together
closely until their term concluded in October. Their split
was "very difficult," he noted, but the two knew that the
country required effective leadership and management, and
they were committed to continue to provide that.

HUME