LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- CAMPAIGN CONCLUDES WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000621

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- CAMPAIGN CONCLUDES WITH
PRESIDENT'S PARTY MAINTAINING LEAD IN POLLS

REF: JAKARTA 593 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The campaign for the national legislative
elections officially ended on April 5. A three day "cooling
off" period begins today as Indonesia gears up for the
elections on April 9. Polls indicate that President
Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD) is still ahead. The
President--just returned from London and the G20
Summit--wrapped up the last day of the campaign with rallies
in central Java. Vice President and Golkar Chair Kalla
concentrated on West Java. Meanwhile, former president
Megawati held a huge rally for her party in Jakarta. A new
party, Gerindra, is doing well in some polls and might
surprise. END SUMMARY.

CAMPAIGNING ENDS


2. (U) Political party paraphernalia is disappearing from
the streets in Indonesia in compliance with the government's
ban on campaigning for the three days before the April 9
national legislative election. The official 20-day period
allotted for mass rallies came to a close on April 5. Most
of the bigger of the 38 parties held rallies in Jakarta or at
sites across the country as they wrapped up their campaigns.

FINAL RALLIES, FINAL PROMISES


3. (SBU) Fresh from his return home from the G20 Summit in
London, President Yudhoyono led PD's final rallies in Central
Java. On April 4 he was in Yogyakarta. On April 5, he
campaigned in other parts of central Java: he held a town
hall meeting for 1,000 people in Magelang (where he graduated
from the military academy) and a larger rally in Semarang.
In his remarks, he stressed the need for national unity. He
also praised Indonesians for their peaceful conduct during
the campaign. He promised to continue what he characterized
as a "pro-people" clean government focused on development.
He urged everyone to comply with Election Commission (KPU)
regulations to remove party paraphernalia and to keep the
peace on election day.


4. (U) Vice President Jusuf Kalla--who doubles as chair of
Golkar--made his final campaign appearances in West Sumatra
and West Java. He promised a more efficient government and
pro-people programs. He also declared that he would be "a
good president" if elected. His slogan: "Golkar with 'JK,'
faster, better."


5. (U) Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri ended the
campaign of the Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle
(PDI-P) (her party) with two enormous rallies--one in Jakarta
and one in the PDI-P stronghold of Bali. Pol FSN attended
the April 4 Jakarta rally. Thousands of red-helmeted
motorcyclists wearing "Mega for President" t-shirts clogged
the main thoroughfares of Jakarta, shouting: "give way, give
way, the bull (PDI-P's symbol) will pass by". The Sukarno
Stadium was festooned with bright red cloth, and as Megawati
stepped onto the stage, the crowd rose, cheering, to its
feet.


6. (U) Megawati emphasized "national unity through
diversity" as she addressed the throngs with Muslim,
Christian, and Hindu greetings. A Chinese dragon dance was
also held during the rally (a nod to Chinese Indonesian
supporters). She urged party members to avenge her bitter
loss in the 2004 presidential election. (Note: She was
incumbent in a head-to-head contest in the second round
against current President Yudhoyono, who won in a landslide.)
Megawati stressed how important it was to vote in this
election, declaring: "If many legislative candidates get into
the DPR (the national legislature),I will be elected
president more easily."


7. (U) Megawati's campaign promises were, like many parties'
platforms, aimed at poor people. She promised that PDI-P was
serious about fighting for cheap daily necessities such as
rice and cooking oil. She asked the crowd to be on the alert
for vote rigging, and vowed to protect Indonesians from fraud
and poverty if she was elected. She closed her speech with a
love song: "Don't Want To Be Alone" whose lyrics were changed
into PDI-P lyrics. A pro-PDI-P Muslim leader closed the
rally with a prayer.

PD STILL AHEAD IN POLLS


JAKARTA 00000621 002 OF 002



8. (SBU) Ahead of the elections, several recent polls have
confirmed that President Yudhoyono's PD party is still in the
lead. A poll conducted in March and just released by the
International Foundation for Elections (IFES) showed that a
third of respondents favored PD. Two other polls, Soegeng
Sarijadi Syndicate (SSS) and Indonesian Survey Institute
(LSI) held March 28- April 1, support this finding. In all
three polls, PDI-P finished second and Golkar third.


9. (C) The polls confirm that Indonesia's Islamic-oriented
parties trail, with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) doing
the best of that group. The right wing, secular-oriented
Gerindra party of former general Prabowo Subianto does well
in the SSS poll, attaining 10.2 % of support. According to
observers, if there is to be any surprise in this election,
it could be Gerindra's performance and whether this
well-funded new party can break from the pack and help spark
Prabowo's bid for the presidency.


10. (U) The latest polls follow:

Party IFES Poll SSS LSI

PD 30 20.2 26.6
PDI-P 18.8 13.5 14.6
Golkar 15.2 12.2 13.7
Gerindra 6.5 10.2 3.1
PKS 5 9.7 4.9

HUME