LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 000593

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND
OUTCOMES

REF: JAKARTA 00573 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Indonesia's April 9 elections will decide
which parties get seats in the national Parliament. Based on
a complex system, these elections are also critical in
determining who will be the country's next president. If
President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD) wins a strong
plurality of seats in the elections (it is currently leading
in the polls),he will be well set for the July presidential
election.


2. (C) SUMMARY (Con'd): Two well-established
parties--Golkar and the oppositon PDI-P party--are trying to
position themselves for a run at the presidency, but are
lagging a bit in the polls. Islamic-oriented parties and a
new secular-oriented party don't seem set to make a top
showing, but will vie for prime coalition opportunities.
While there will be "quick counts," official results of the
April 9 election will take time to flow in. END SUMMARY.

COMPLEX RULES HAVE IMPACT ON PRESIDENTIAL RACE


3. (SBU) Indonesia's electoral rules are complex, with
performance in the national legislative elections directly
tied to who can be nominated for president. (Note: National
legislative elections take place on April 9, followed by the
presidential election in July. The new Parliament will sit
and the president will be inaugurated come October 2009.)
Only those parties which meet (or exceed) a new requirement
by winning either 25% of the national vote or 20% of the
Parliamentary (DPR) seats (based on the results of the April
9 election) can nominate their own presidential candidates
outright. Those parties which fail to meet either
requirement can form coalitions to try to gain the requisite
percentage figures. With the threshold for presidential
nomination so high, there are likely to be only two to four
contenders for president.

PRESIDENT'S PARTY SEEMS SET FOR GOOD SHOWING


4. (C) President Yudhoyono's PD has had the lead in the
polls in recent months, even as President Yudhoyono's
popularity continues to rise. Some observers predict that PD
may garner roughly 20% of the DPR seats and possibly close to
25% of the popular vote. If this happens, Yudhoyono would be
in an excellent position to win nomination to the
presidential ballot outright (such percentages would also be
a brilliant showing for PD, which only received 7.45 percent
of support in 2004 in what was a good showing for a new
party). Without the need to rely on a coalition, Yudhoyono
might not have to turn to Golkar Chief and current Vice
President Jusuf Kalla as his running mate. Instead, some
observers speculate, he could nominate a technocrat with a
solid reputation, such as Finance Minister Sri Mulyani
Indrawati.


5. (C) At the same time, if PD does not meet the
increasingly high expectations--such as by netting less than
15% of support, for example--that would make the situation
tricky for the president. He would have to work hard to gain
the coalition support needed to get on the ballot. This
would mean that he would need to make political deals and
possibly, if he won the presidential race, be forced to form
an unwieldy cabinet (which to some extent is what he has
now). In addition, a poor showing by PD probably brings a
Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket very much back into the picture, with
the President having to turn to Golkar in order to get on the
presidential ballot. With a poor showing, the President
might also have to rely on small Islamic-oriented parties.


GOLKAR: STUMBLING BEHEMOTH


6. (C) Golkar, currently the largest party in the DPR with
23% of the DPR seats and 21.5% of the national vote in 2004,
has recently seemed to lose much of its political lustre.
Riven with internal fractures, power struggles, and alleged
money politics, Golkar has consistently polled behind PD.
There has been even been talk that VP Kalla will face a
leadership revolt in his party if Golkar does not do well on
April 9.


7. (C) Desperate to regain its popularity and power, Golkar
members have pressured VP Kalla hard to run as president;
Kalla has said he is ready to do so (pending the April

JAKARTA 00000593 002 OF 003


electoral returns). Part of Golkar's image problems stem
from its lack of a coherent, charismatic figure around which
voters could coalesce. Kalla, while hardly charismatic
(polling at 1-2% popularity),is currently the party's
central figure (though the party has other contenders who
want to run for president, too). Golkar could still make a
comeback in the polls and do well on April 9. Nonetheless,
even if the party comes in at the predicted average of about
15-17% in the actual polls, it is likely to be able to lure
enough parties to form a coalition and field a presidential
candidate (should President Yudhoyono decide--and be able--to
go it without them).

PDI-P -- STILL A KEY PLAYER


8. (C) PD's major challenger--along with Golkar--is the
Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P). With its
historically rooted appeal (its leader, ex-president
Megawati, is the daughter of Indonesia's first president,
Sukarno) and strong village-based outreach, PDI-P is a party
with considerable populist appeal nation-wide. In 2004, it
won 18.5% of the national vote and 19.8% of the DPR seats.
PDI-P has run neck-and-neck in the opinion polls with Golkar
until recently, when it nudged ahead, taking second place
behind PD.


9. (C) In 2009, most commentators expect PDI-P to come in
second or third on April 9 with about 15-20% of the vote.
Though she polls poorly against him and lost to him in 2004,
Megawati also remains President Yudhoyono's main challenger
in the presidential race. There has been some talk that
Megawati faces internal dissension regarding her planned
presidential race given her seeming failure to match up well
against Yudhoyono. There has also been talk of a
PDI-P-Golkar alliance focused on taking on Yudhoyono.

ISLAMIC-ORIENTED PARTIES DOWN BUT NOT OUT


10. (C) Although the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) can
still pull mass support (see reftels),it and other
Islamic-oriented parties seem set to lag a bit this election.
The four most popular of these, listed below, received
between 6-10% of the national vote in 2004--they are
currently, however, only getting between 3-5 percent in
opinion polls. In fact, it is possible that one of two of
them may drop out of Parliament entirely because they do not
make the threshold requirement (see below). Although they
may not perform in sterling fashion on April 9, these parties
will probably be right in the middle of the action in the
race to form coalitions in order to nominate presidential
candidates.

Key Islamic-oriented parties:
--United Development Party (PPP)
--Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)
--National Awakening Party (PKB)
--National Mandate Party (PAN)

NEW PARTIES TRY TO MAKE A MARK


11. (C) Fourteen of the 38 parties contesting this election
(plus six local parties based only in Aceh) are new parties.
Most of these will not be able to obtain the 2.5% of the
national vote (the so-called "parliamentary threshold")
required to get seats in Parliament. That said, one new
party may--wealthy retired General Prabowo Subianto's
secular-oriented Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra)
which is currently netting between 3-6 percent in the polls.
However, the other small parties, new and old alike, can
still have a voice, even without seats, by offering up their
portion of the vote to the kingmakers--the bigger parties
seeking coalition partners in order to gain a nomination for
the presidential election.

RESULTS WILL TAKE TIME TO FLOW IN


12. (U) Given Indonesia's rules, the April elections act
more as the end of the beginning rather than as a full stop.
The political sparring will only intensify in following weeks
as parties work furiously to form coalitions in order to get
on the July presidential ballot. With the Constitutional
Court recently ruling that they are legal, "quick counts"
will give a sense of which parties are doing well in the race
within days of April 9. That said, it will take time for the
full results to flow in. Indeed, the election commission
will only announce the official results of the elections on
May 8.

JAKARTA 00000593 003 OF 003


HUME