LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- COURT ALLOWS "QUICK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000573

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- COURT ALLOWS "QUICK
COUNTS"; CHRISTIAN AREAS TO VOTE LATER

REF: JAKARTA 00557 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate General
Surabaya.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Ten days before the April 9 legislative
elections, the Constitutional Court has decided to allow
pollsters to announce "quick count" results on election day.
With the GOI set to announce final results only in May, the
quick counts will be key in assessing which party has the
early advantage in the voting. The Election Commission has
also acquiesced to demands from two Christian districts to
delay elections until April 14 to avoid conflicting with the
Easter religious holidays. Meanwhile, the campaign pace is
quickening, with the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice
Party (PKS) holding a huge rally in Jakarta on March 30. END
SUMMARY.

CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULING


3. (U) The Constitutional Court decided on March 30 that
polling companies and policy institutes can release their
quick count results on election day, April 9. This ruling
overturns an article of Indonesia's election law which
stipulated that pollsters could not release results until one
day after elections. Violators face imprisonment. The Court
dismissed the argument that survey results would unfairly
advantage parties which could afford to pay off pollsters,
citing a lack of evidence that surveys influence people's
voting behavior. (Note: Polling outfits have used quick
counts in previous elections in Indonesia, including during
the 2004 presidential elections.)

TWO CHRISTIAN DISTRICTS TO VOTE APRIL 14


4. (SBU) Indonesia is bending over backward to respect
Christian religious sensitivities. The national Election
Commission--which goes by the acronym "KPU"--has decided to
allow two Christian districts in East Nusa Tenggara Province
(NTT)--East Flores and Lembata Island--to delay elections
until April 14. The KPU reluctantly made the decision after
realizing that no one in the staunchly Christian areas would
staff the polling booths April 9 (per a boycott that local
groups had announced). Good Friday falls on April 10, the
day after the national legislative elections (it is a
national holiday),and some Christian areas celebrate the day
before also as "Maundy Thursday" (Holy Thursday). Maundy
Thursday celebrations are mostly concentrated in East Flores
and Lembata.


5. (SBU) The KPU decision only partially satisfies Christian
demands. Christian groups in Kupang, West Timor, have
demonstrated for weeks against the KPU election date. NTT
Governor Frans Lebu Raya noted that he initially expected the
April 14 date to be applied provincewide. Although the
decision was not applied throughout NTT, he acknowledged that
the decision was important as it demonstrated that the
central government respected other religions (in addition to
those of the majority Muslim community).


6. (C) The KPU decision has not been universally popular.
Echoing comments by some politicians, Tifatul Sembiring,
Chair of the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party (PKS),
expressed his opposition to the KPU decision. He told the
media that if the April 14 date was allowed then other
regions would also want a delay, which could "cause security
problems, lead to ballot fraud, and cost more money." Other
contacts have told us that the delay is not an issue and will
not cause administrative/logistical problems, especially
given the fact that the two regions in question are small and
relatively lightly populated.

ISLAMIC-ORIENTED PARTY HOLDS BIG RALLY


7. (SBU) In our "flavor of the campaign" section, the PKS
held a large rally in Jakarta on March 30. Tifatul addressed
his party's supporters at what was to date Indonesia's
largest party rally for this election season--with over
100,000 enthusiasts packing Sukarno Stadium. Poloff and Pol
FSN attended the rally. It was approximately three times the
size of President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD) rally the
previous week, which was considered a large rally. (Note:
PD leads in most polls.)


8. (C) PKS is well known for its strong organizational

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skills and grassroots support. This was clear at the
rally--the masses were enthusiastic but orderly. About
thirty percent were women, mostly wearing headscarves. Teams
of female security guards were dispersed throughout the
crowds wearing orange headscarves or jackets, passing out
expensive lunch boxes to the crowd. A long line of male
security guards linking arms and wearing orange turban-like
scarves stretched across the grass in front of the podium. A
police helicopter hovered overhead to maintain order.


9. (C) Tifatul struck a balance between the party's
religious and populist appeal. Between exclamations of
"Allah Hu Akbhar" (The Almighty is Great) he urged the
throngs of white clad PKS supporters to remember that PKS is
- "A Party For Everyone". To show this, he sang a duet with
one of the famous singers from a well-known band, while PKS
legislative candidates served as backup.


10. (C) Tifatul also stressed the PKS message of clean
governance, using an example. A disgraced and dismissed
National Mandate Party (PAN) legislator, Adbdul Hadi Djamal,
on trial for bribery, implicated PKS legislator Rama Pratama
in the case. Tifatul proudly announced at the rally that the
Corruption Eradication Commission had dismissed Pratama's
case. Tifatul roared: "We will not tolerate corruption!" and
the crowd chanted "corruption, no, nepotism, no!"


11. (C) Sources and polls indicate that PKS is not currently
all that popular despite its strong organizational and
grassroots support, and apparently sound funding (some say
from the Middle East). It did very well in 2004, winning 8%
of the Parliamentary seats and 7% of the national vote.
Started as a campus movement, it is strong in urban centers
such as Jakarta-- where it won 24% of the total vote in 2004
(its goal in 2009 is 50% of the Jakarta vote). It also has
been successful at spreading out to the countryside through
Islamic schools. Nonetheless, PKS continues to struggle to
put a nationalist coat over its religious garb, and its
campaign has not had much momentum, so far, though the March
30 rally--which by any measure was a success--might serve to
spark party faithful.
HUME