LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- PRESIDENT,S PARTY REMAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000520 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- PRESIDENT,S PARTY REMAINS IN THE LEAD REF: JAKARTA 00512 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate General Surabaya. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: According to the latest public opinion surveys, President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD) remains solidly in the lead ahead of Indonesia's national legislative elections on April 9. Yudhoyono's well-received speech at PD's opening rally in Jakarta on March 20 drew a huge crowd. On the negative side for the President, a key opposition party is hammering away at the theme that PD was involved in alleged voter fraud in the recent East Java gubernatorial race. It is not clear whether this claim--denied by the President's supporters--is picking up any traction. END SUMMARY. PRESIDENT'S PARTY IN THE LEAD ¶3. (U) Polls show that President Yudhoyono's party, PD, remains solidly in the lead ahead of parliamentary elections in just over two weeks. Three separate surveys done by public policy institutes in February and March and published in the past several days confirm this trend, which began late last year. ¶4. (U) The polls show that three secular-oriented parties--PD, the Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P),and Golkar--lead the race. The poll results for these three parties follow: Survey by Reform Institute (Feb 28-March 13) --PD 25.05% --PDI-P 15.01% --Golkar 14.49% Survey by CSIS, LP3ES LIPI and Puskapol (Feb 9-19) --PD 21.5% --PDI-P 15.51% --Golkar 14.27% Indonesian Survey institute (Feb 8-18): --PD 24.3% --PDI-P 17.3% --Golkar 15.9% BIG JAKARTA RALLY ¶5. (U) With the "all out" campaign season beginning on March 16, parties are now holding mass rallies around the country. President Yudhoyono addressed huge throngs of supporters at PD's first big rally of the season on March 20. POL FSN attended the Jakarta rally. Busloads of supporters heading to the rally snarled the traffic for hours and President Yudhoyono apologized to the public for the delays. PD is so far the only party to hold its rally in the mammoth Sukarno stadium, the biggest venue in Jakarta. About 50,000 people turned out for the rally which far exceeded any other party's rally to date nationwide (by way of comparison, ONE medium-sized Islamic-oriented recently held a rally in Jakarta and only had 2,000 people turned up, for example.) ¶6. (U) PD's appeal at the rally was aimed at the younger voter and 60 percent of the rally audience was in their twenties. After popular music bands performed, President Yudhoyono addressed the audience. Though expected to speak and sing--he has released several albums of love songs--Yudhoyono only spoke for 15 minutes (and there was no singing). He emphasized his government's accomplishments, including peace in Aceh, an economy doing better than most internationally and clean government. He asked the throngs: "Do we want to step backward? Do you want it to get worse again?!" The audience chorused "NO" loudly in return. Some supporters shouted "Long Live SBY!" A PD-supporting celebrity, Ruhut Sitompul, showed voters how to mark (Indonesia's over the top complicated) ballot for PD. ¶7. (U) President Yudhoyono is campaigning only Fridays through Sundays while maintaining his presidential duties (due to a recent HEALTH scare, doctors have advised him to try to take it easy). As an implicit challenge to his main rival, former president Megawati, he launched his first rally JAKARTA 00000520 002 OF 002 outside of Jakarta on March 21 in the PDI-P stronghold of Denpasar, Bali. Yudhoyono followed this up with an afternoon rally in Vice President and Golkar Party Chief Jusuf Kalla's hometown of Makassar, South Sulawesi. (Note: Kalla recently indicated that he was willing to run against Yudhoyono for the presidency.) Next weekend the President will campaign in Bandung (West Java),Serang (Banten),and Medan, Achh, and Padang (all in Sumatra). OPPOSITION CRTICIZES ALLEGED EAST JAVA VOTER FRAUD ¶8. (C) Dsspite the positive vibes for the President and PD,Q they are receiving increasing flak re allegations of voter fraud in the recent East Java gubernatoiial election. (Note: Per reftels, a former Eas Java police chief has asserted that his investiaation turned up fraud in that hotly contested elc"tion, which a PD-supported candidate won. He has claimed that he was then quickly removed from the investigation.) There is no evidence of presidn*tial involvement in the matter and his supportess deny any involvement in voter fraud of any sor.* ¶9. (U) The Opposition is hitting out over the matter. In a PDI-P rally held in Yogyakarta in eentral Java on March 21, Megawati declared publil(y that the national Election Commission (KPU) needed to fix "mistakes." Implying that PD was bei(nd the situation in East Java, she stated: "How can democracy work when some (parties) attempt to use invisible mechanisms and pressure?" (Note: PDI-P was a late supporter of the losing candidate in the hotly contested East Java race.) In Golkar's Makassar rally, VicePre KPU update the voter lists (wito*ut echoing her overt jab at Yudhoyono). ¶10. (U) Other observers have asserted that the issue damaees the credibility of the entire electoral proces" in Indonesia. There have been some calls thattthe government postpone the legislative election until the country's voter lists are reviewed fully. (Note: The KPU has said the elections will oot be postponed and will take place on schedule. h(e East Java regional Election Commission said it expected to receive sonn the results of an internal inquiry into the suspc"ted voter list fraud.) HUME