LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- NEW THRESHOLD RULE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000517

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- NEW THRESHOLD RULE
IMPACTS SMALLER PARTIES

REF: JAKARTA 487 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: New Indonesian electoral rules require that
a party win at least 2.5% of the national vote in order to
enter Parliament. Before this rule, there was effectively no
limit. Looking ahead at the April 9 legislative elections,
it seems likely that a number of relatively well-known
parties will not make the new limit, including some currently
with seats in Parliament. This includes a couple of
Christian parties and perhaps one or two Islamic-oriented
parties. The new rule also creates a real hurdle for new
parties trying to enter Parliament. The purpose of the rule
is to streamline the Indonesian electoral system by cutting
down on the number of parties. END SUMMARY.

ELECTION THRESHOLD AT 2.5%


2. (U) Indonesia's new electoral rules provide that parties
must win at least 2.5 percent of the national vote in order
to enter Parliament (DPR). The rules were implemented as
part of an omnibus election law passed by Parliament in March

2008. Before this rule, there was no effective limit and
parties that won relatively small percentages of the national
vote were permitted to send representatives (even just one)
to Parliament. The explicit purpose of the new rule is to
streamline the Indonesian electoral system by cutting down on
the myriad number of parties.

IMPACT ON SMALLER PARTIES


3. (SBU) Ahead of the national legislative elections on
April 9, smaller parties are facing the full impact of this
rule. Indonesia does have a myriad of parties, with 38
parties registered nationally (plus six in Aceh). Based on
recent polls, only a few parties (perhaps 7-8) appear capable
of crossing the 2.5% threshold and winning seats in the DPR
(currently 17 parties hold seats there).


4. (C) At this point, several parties that have held seats
in Parliament for years look like they may not make it.
These include one Christian-based party (see below) as well
as some Islamic-based parties, such as the Crescent Star
Party (PBB) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) (this
latter party has been riven by feuds). The 2.5% threshold is
also a considerable hurdle for new parties to cross.
Gerindra, a new party led by Prabowo Subianto, a former
general, may make it, for example, but Hanura Party led by
former General Wiranto quite possibly will not.


5. (SBU) Although smaller parties may be shut out of
Parliament, they may still have an impact on the presidential
election in July. In order to be nominated and get on the
ballot, candidates need either the support from a projected
20 percent or more of the seats in Parliament or the support
of 25 percent or more of the popular vote (based on the
results of the April legislative elections). To get to these
figures, parties invariably form coalitions and even parties
that don't make Parliament can throw their popular vote
totals into the mix for some candidate's effort to make the
presidential ballot. (Note: Three to four candidates are
expected to gain the requisite support and to get their names
on the July ballot.) This gives smaller parties at least
some influence on the system.

TOUGH SITUATION FOR CHRISTIAN PARTIES


6. (SBU) Christian parties may well feel the effects of the
threshold rule. There are two major Christian-based parties
in Indonesia: the (Protestant-based) Prosperous Peace Party
(PDS) and the (largely Roman Catholic-based) Indonesian Love
Democracy Party (of the two, only PDS currently has
representatives in Parliament). These parties received under
2.5% of support in the 2004 election and are not doing well
in the polls now. One PDS contact told us that his party is
working hard to try to make the 2.5% threshold and has hopes
that it can do so.

WILL THERE BE VOLATILITY?


7. (C) Few question the overall purpose and rationale for
the 2.5% threshold. Indonesia has way too many parties,
and--in part due to this--the system lacks coherency and is
too defuse. There are some concerns, however, that the limit
could lead to tensions in the aftermath of the elections as
members of parties that failed to make the cut take their

JAKARTA 00000517 002.7 OF 002


frustration to the streets. Indonesian elections are usually
relatively peaceful and there are not deep concerns that
April will be particularly volatile here (see reftel for that
assessment),but the new threshold creates some uncertainty.
The national Election Commission has urged parties to fully
respect the results and, if they run and lose, to try again
in the future.


HUME