ALLEGED EAST JAVA VOTER FRAUD SPARKS NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000512

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E. PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR ID
SUBJECT: ALLEGED EAST JAVA VOTER FRAUD SPARKS NATIONAL
CONCERNS

REF: A. JAKARTA 00479

B. SURABAYA 10 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate General
Surabaya.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Accusations of widespread voting fraud in
East Java's recent gubernatorial elections are sparking
concerns about the credibility of the upcoming national
legislative elections, scheduled for April 9. On March 19,
retired East Java Police Chief Herman told the DCM--and has
alleged publicly--that national police headquarters put a
stop to his team's criminal investigation into the alleged
fraud.


3. (C) SUMMARY (Con'd): In particular, the spotlight has
fallen on President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD),which
was the main support behind the winning East Java
gubernatorial candidate. There is no evidence connecting the
President to any fraud, but it could potentially impact his
re-election campaign. END SUMMARY.

CONCERNS GROW ABOUT EAST JAVA CHARGES


4. (C) Allegations of voting fraud in a recent gubernatorial
race are sparking worry in Indonesia. Concerns about voting
fraud in East Java, mounting since last year's November
gubernatorial elections, peaked this week with former police
official Herman's allegations that Jakarta Police
Headquarters interfered with his investigations into fraud.
Herman--who asked for the meeting--told the DCM on March 19
that his suspicions of continued irregularities in the re-run
of the East Java elections in January grew when his officers
detained several children attempting to vote under false
names. A coalition candidate who was backed by PD, Sukarwo
(one name only) won the election by just 34,104 votes.


5. (C) Herman claims to have found 29,948 falsified names of
a sample from 368 polling stations (600 voters per station)
in the two regions conducting the re-run election. The
police discovered that the falsified names were spread out
regionally through a computerized system, which made it
difficult to detect at the polling sites. With sufficient
evidence, the police investigators raised the investigation
to the level of a criminal case. However, in what Herman
claims was an unusual move, Jakarta Police Headquarters
stepped in, stopped the investigation, and transferred
Herman, due to retire in June, to Jakarta. Herman decided to
speak out, he said, only upon learning that his replacement
had agreed to downgrade the criminal investigation.


6. (C) Herman is well-respected in East Java and by Mission
for his cooperation on Surabaya Consulate security, TIP,
Cybercrime, and other ICITAP programs. The Independent
Commission for the Election Observer (KIPP) gave him a
courageous dissent award March 20 for his public calls to
resume the criminal investigation of the fraud. He was also
part of a small group chosen to participate in a rule of law
trip to the U.S. with Ambassador Hume in 2008. Nonetheless,
some East Java pundits have implied that he has political
motivations and that he may have decided to come forward
after PD denied him a position.

POTENTIAL NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS?


7. (C) Herman's charges have been widely publicized. The
question now is whether they might in any way impact the
April legislative elections or the July presidential
election. Most of the major parties, except for the three
supporting the East Java winner (PD, PAN, PKS),immediately
asked for meetings with Herman to discuss his charges.
Gerindra presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto has been
particularly vocal, along with PDI-P's Megawati and Golkar's
chair, Vice President Kalla, about the need for the Election
Commission to re-open the case and examine the voter lists.
Commission III of the Parliament (covering domestic affairs)
has summoned the National Police Inspector to discuss the
case. In separate meetings this week with Boeing
representative (and former Ambassador) Ralph (Skip) Boyce,
both Kalla and Megawati made clear that they wanted to make
the claims a political issue.


8. (C) Thus far, it is still too early to assess whether
some of the mud might rub off on President Yudhoyono who is
head of the PD. There is no evidence that he was any way

JAKARTA 00000512 002 OF 002


involved in any fraud and he maintains a clean image.
Consulate Surabaya reports that election fraud in East Java
is old news, with voters there paying little attention to
this case, or even to the elections. Most voters (50%) are
still undecided, claiming there are too many parties and too
many candidates to keep track of. That said, observers
wonder whether PD and the President might be hurt by Herman's
allegations, especially as other parties press claims that
Herman's investigation was sidetracked at the national level
in order to protect PD.


9. (C) There are other concerns re the elections. An
influential ethnic Chinese businessman told DCM on March 18
that he and some colleagues were worried about possible
social unrest if voters feel they have been cheated due to
widespread allegations of fraud. He and some colleagues were
planning to board a plane for Singapore after voting the
morning of the elections. He pointed out that now the
concern is less about being targeted as ethnic Chinese, and
more about resentment from the "have-nots" toward the
"haves." We have not heard similar concerns from other
Chinese Indonesians.

PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO REACTS


10. (SBU) President Yudhoyono held a meeting with ministers
and officials on March 19 to discuss the allegations. He
asked the national police chief to look into and resolve this
issue. The President has underscored his commitment to a
free and fair electoral process without fraud and corruption.
Other GOI officials have emphasized that the electoral
system is fair and allegations of fraud will be fully
investigated by the police and the Election Commission.



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