LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- COURT RULING CHANGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000487

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS -- COURT RULING CHANGES
CAMPAIGN DYNAMIC

REF: A. JAKARTA 02350

B. JAKARTA 463 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: A recent Constitutional Court ruling allows
Indonesian voters--not political parties--to directly choose
their representatives in the April 9 national legislative
elections. This has significantly changed the dynamic of the
campaign. Party elites contesting the election are no longer
guaranteed seats--nor can they dictate who will get seats.
Moreover, candidates running for the same party in the same
region are suddenly pitted against each other, sparking
intra-party conflicts. Even as most parties struggle,
some--such as the President's Partai Demokrat--seem to be
benefiting from the new electoral landscape. END SUMMARY.

COURT RULING ALTERS DYNAMIC


2. (SBU) A court ruling has changed the dynamic of
Indonesia's legislative elections. This ruling, rendered on
December 23 by the Constitutional Court, changed the way
Indonesians vote for legislative candidates, causing a sharp
shift from party-centered to personality-centered politics.


3. (SBU) Previously, political parties had long lists of
candidates. At the top of the list were the party elite,
influential, wealthy, entrenched, etc. If the party won
three seats in a particular region, the seats would--except
on rare occasions--go to its top three candidates. Those at
the middle or bottom of the list stood little to no chance of
getting elected. Now, politicians wanting a seat in
Parliament have to get a majority of votes in their electoral
districts--so in theory, anyone can win with or without party
support.

THE NEW POLITICS IN ACTION


4. (SBU) Candidates' strategies have changed dramatically as
a result. Many contacts say they feel "energized"--since now
they have a chance to win no matter what their rank is on
party lists. Nonetheless, in order to win, the voters have
to know who the candidates' are. A mass exodus from Jakarta
has ensued as candidates scramble to get out to their
constituencies and meet the people (as opposed to hanging
around party headquarters).


5. (SBU) An example of the changing environment: in the
past, parties and candidates jointly provided social programs
such as mobile medical units or agricultural development to
drum up support. Now candidates are abandoning these
programs for straightforward sound-bite strategies aimed at
getting voters to remember their name and number when looking
at Indonesia's complicated electoral ballot. Some run
training sessions showing voters how to quickly find their
names on the ballots. One Golkar contact released a music cd
with his name flagged in the lyrics.


6. (SBU) Many candidates are struggling to adjust to the new
system. Those not originally from their districts, or who
rarely visit, are finding it particularly challenging.


7. (SBU) Party dynamics are also profoundly affected by this
change. Parties are now more reliant on their candidates'
popularity in order to win seats. They are thus more likely
to recruit movie stars and other famous people as party
members and candidates in the future (the candidate lists had
already been put together by the time of the court's ruling,
so this phenomenon is not yet a factor in this race).
Meanwhile, more qualified candidates with less star power
might get lost in the shuffle. Finally, candidates have
fewer motivations to donate generously to their parties as
they increasingly keep the funding for themselves.

IMPACT ON THE HORSE RACE


8. (C) Some parties seem to be in better position than
others given the change in dynamics. President Yudhoyono's
Partai Demokrat (PD)--which had already implemented the
practice of "the seat goes to the candidate with the most
votes" before the court ruling--is said to be doing well in
the new environment. This is also true of the
Islamic-oriented National Mandate Party (PAN). To reduce
intra-party competition, for example, these parties divided
up electoral districts by candidate. They also asked their
candidates to campaign door-to-door only in their allotted
parts of each region.

JAKARTA 00000487 002 OF 002




9. (C) Most of the other parties, however, are faced with
fierce competition which has suddenly arisen among fellow
party candidates. This has increased tensions and the
potential for rifts. Contacts have told us that this
intra-party tension is impacting two of the largest parties,
Golkar and the Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle
(PDI-P),for example. In addition, contacts have told us
that PDI-P is in some trouble because of all the parties it
is most known for recruiting candidates to run in different
regions than their home areas. As noted, this tactic is
problematic now because these imported candidates are having
to campaign hard in regions that they may be unfamiliar with.


BROADER IMPLICATIONS


10. (C) Many observers hope that the change to an open
election system, with legislative seats going directly to
candidates who win the majority of votes, will lead to better
public representation as candidates are forced to pay closer
attention to constituent needs. Others are concerned that it
has created new possibilities for money politics, weakened
the party system, and reduced opportunities for women (the
Court ruling effectively torpedoed a plan to increase the
number of women holding seats in Parliament--see reftel).
With broader ramifications unclear at this point, the general
feeling is that the situation will have to shake down some
more in order for longer term assessments to be made.
HUME