VP KALLA ANNOUNCES HE MAY RUN FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 000308 DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: VP KALLA ANNOUNCES HE MAY RUN FOR PRESIDENT REF: 08 JAKARTA 01366 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Indonesian Vice President Kalla has announced that he may run for president in the July 2009 election. In making the announcement, Kalla was responding to demands from within his Golkar party that it field its own candidate. President Yudhoyono--already a candidate--responded amicably to Kalla's announcement, noting that he and Kalla will continue to govern in a cooperative manner no matter what happens. Most observers believe that the President and the VP will wait for the national legislative election results in April before making any final decisions. END SUMMARY. VP ANNOUNCES HE MAY RUN ¶2. (U) Vice President Jusuf Kalla has indicated that he may run for president. Speaking on February 20, Kalla stated that he was "always ready" to run for president, adding that he was "ready as long as it's best for the nation." Kalla did not make any determinative statement, but went on to note that he would decide on whether to take the plunge after the April national legislative elections. KALLA REACTS TO PRESSURE FROM PARTY ¶3. (C) In making the announcement, Kalla was responding to pressure from within his Golkar party. In fact, his remarks were made right after he met with members of Golkar's Central Board. Contacts have told us that members of the board pressed Kalla to run at that meeting. They noted that the party was Indonesia's largest based on the results of the 2004 legislative elections and the party should not be shy about fielding its own candidate. The members of the board also indicated that they would support Kalla if he ran. Yuddy Chrisnandi, a senior MP for the secularist-leaning Golkar, has told us that the party should "show it is real" and announce a presidential candidate, remarking that "by doing so, it will help the party mobilize for the legislative elections." Young members of the party--worried about Golkar's poor performance in polls this year--are urging that the party do something to shake up the race. ¶4. (C) Up until now, Kalla has been careful not to in any way prejudice his chances of remaining on the ticket with President Yudhoyono (and the president's Partai Demokrat). He has held back in part because polls indicate that only �0A;1-2% of voters favor him for president. Other than Kalla, Golkar has few other options. Golkar member Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X is a possibility, but his recent appearances with Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P) presidential candidate Megawati indicate he might join that ticket. (Note: The Sultan is already a presidential candidate and has indicated he will run no matter what Golkar does.) ¶5. (C) A recent public spat upped the pressure on Kalla. Partai Demokrat (PD) Deputy Chairman Achmad Mubarok stated that PD would wait to choose a vice president until legislative elections revealed the distribution of party power and popularity. He explained: "If Golkar gains (only) 2.5% (of the vote) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) gets 20% of the total votes, PD will form a coalition with PKS." Golkar was stung by this statement, which seemed to belittle the party's standing, and President Yudhoyono issued an immediate public apology to Golkar. PRESIDENTIAL RESPONSE ¶6. (C) For his part, President Yudhoyono responded amicably to VP Kalla's statement. In a Metro TV interview given on February 21, he said that he respected the right of Kalla to run for president if he chose to do so. Nonetheless, the president continued, he and Kalla would remain a cohesive team for the duration of his presidency--"We have to maintain the functions of the current administration and lead with our best until the end of our term on October 20 of this year," he said. Tri Sukma "Nanu" Djandam, an advisor in the President's international affairs office, said the two had met on February 22 and the meeting had gone well. ¶7. (C) For some time, insiders in the president's PD party have alluded to the possibility of a split, stating publicly that if PD is successful in the legislative elections (and it is doing well in the polls now),the President would have the freedom to choose the vice presidential candidate who he saw as the best fit. Possibilities include the highly regarded Finance Minister Sri Indrawati Mulyani or PKS Chair Hidayat Nur Wahid, who has a clean image and would draw conservative Muslim voters. WAIT AND SEE ¶8. (C) For now, President Yudhoyono and Vice President Kalla remain a team despite rampant speculation about their intentions. There are good reasons for them to stay together. Despite occasional tensions between the two (and their separate camps),they seem to get along. They also have been an effective team in dealing with such issues as the Aceh peace accord and the international economic downturn. In any case, political jockeying will continue to take place in the run-up to the elections. Many commentators have told us that they think there is a solid shot that Yudhoyono and Kalla will choose to run together again before the dust settles. HUME