Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09JAKARTA24
2009-01-07 08:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Jakarta
Cable title:
PRESIDENT'S PARTY TAKES EARLY LEAD IN POLLS FOR
how-toVZCZCXRO1121 OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM DE RUEHJA #0024/01 0070843 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 070843Z JAN 09 FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1165 INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS COLL PRIORITY RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5801 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 3480 RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1560 RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 1549 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2575 RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 4158 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 5297 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2922 RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 3401 RUEHBAD/AMCONSUL PERTH 1391 RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 3220 RHHJJPI/USPACOM HONOLULU HI RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000024
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR E.PHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S PARTY TAKES EARLY LEAD IN POLLS FOR
APRIL'S LEGISLATIVE ELECTION
REF: JAKARTA 2157 AND PREVIOUS
JAKARTA 00000024 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000024
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR E.PHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S PARTY TAKES EARLY LEAD IN POLLS FOR
APRIL'S LEGISLATIVE ELECTION
REF: JAKARTA 2157 AND PREVIOUS
JAKARTA 00000024 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat
(PD) is leading in early polls for Indonesia's April national
legislative election. PD has become the most popular party
only recently, taking a lead on more established parties.
PD's rise mirrors that of President Yudhoyono who--facing
re-election in July--is also doing well in the polls thanks
to his clean image and steady response to the global economic
crisis. That said, PD's lead is a bit of a surprise and
quite possibly won't hold up. END SUMMARY.
PRESIDENT'S PARTY OUT IN FRONT (FOR NOW)
2. (U) President Yudhoyono is netting positive political
news. His PD party is currently leading in the early polls
for the April 9 legislative elections. Two surveys released
by respected polling organizations this month assessed PD's
popularity at 23 and 26 percent respectively, a significant
lead over its competitors. Former president Megawati
Sukarnoputri's opposition Indonesian Party of Democratic
Struggle (PDI-P) party followed at 17% in both polls (PDI-P
is the second largest party in Parliament).
Golkar--Indonesia's largest party with 23 percent of the
seats in Parliament--was third with 13 or 14 percent of the
respondents. Indonesia's various Muslim-oriented parties are
all lagging behind.
3. (U) The latest polls represent an increase in
popularity for PD. Polls published in November by the same
research institutes showed that PD was in the lead, but only
barely, with a very slim margin over its competitors.
Polling before that showed that Golkar and PDI-P were in the
lead with other parties--including PD--behind.
RIDING THE PRESIDENT'S COATTAILS
4. (C) PD's image is closely tied to that of President
Yudhoyono. It is a small party with more image than
structure, mainly conceived as a vehicle for his 2004
election. The party only won 7.45% of the vote in 2004
(actually a good showing for a new party) and has a limited
presence in Parliament (57 seats out of 550),a factor which
has meant that the President has to rely on an unwieldy
coalition approach to governing. As reviewed in reftels, the
President's popularity has rebounded from a low after his
government raised fuel prices in early 2008. The President
has benefited by maintaining a clean image on the
anti-corruption front, and his response to the global
financial crisis has been steady.
5. (C) PD has been able to latch itself on to the
President's rise in popularity. Tri Sukma "Nanu" Djandam, an
adviser to the President on international relations, told
Pol/C on January 7 that he did not think PD itself was doing
anything differently -- "The main factor in the party's rise
has been the President's leadership and people's appreciation
of that. The party itself has not switched tactics or been
running a brilliant campaign. It is all 'sink or swim' with
the President."
IT'S STILL EARLY
6. (C) PD's lead is a bit of surprise and quite possibly
won't hold up. The party is lucky to be tied to a relatively
popular president, but--when push comes to shove--it takes a
lot of effort to lure voters to the polls and PD is not known
to have a strong organization. This has been shown, for
example, in the fate of PD gubernatorial candidates, most of
whom have lost (despite the link to Yudhoyono). Over all,
JAKARTA 00000024 002.2 OF 002
the campaign season is just beginning, and it is too early to
tell if PD can overcome Golkar and PDI-P, Indonesia's two
political heavyweights. It is also noteworthy that Golkar
and PDI-P are only beginning to rev up their campaigns.
7. (C) If PD does do well in April, however, it would help
the President in an immediate, concrete sense by helping him
get his name on the presidential ballot. The threshold of
support needed to do that is steep, and depends on how one's
party or coalition of parties does in the legislative
election. Observers believe that the President will make the
threshold, but a strong showing by PD can help ensure that.
HEFFERN
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR E.PHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S PARTY TAKES EARLY LEAD IN POLLS FOR
APRIL'S LEGISLATIVE ELECTION
REF: JAKARTA 2157 AND PREVIOUS
JAKARTA 00000024 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat
(PD) is leading in early polls for Indonesia's April national
legislative election. PD has become the most popular party
only recently, taking a lead on more established parties.
PD's rise mirrors that of President Yudhoyono who--facing
re-election in July--is also doing well in the polls thanks
to his clean image and steady response to the global economic
crisis. That said, PD's lead is a bit of a surprise and
quite possibly won't hold up. END SUMMARY.
PRESIDENT'S PARTY OUT IN FRONT (FOR NOW)
2. (U) President Yudhoyono is netting positive political
news. His PD party is currently leading in the early polls
for the April 9 legislative elections. Two surveys released
by respected polling organizations this month assessed PD's
popularity at 23 and 26 percent respectively, a significant
lead over its competitors. Former president Megawati
Sukarnoputri's opposition Indonesian Party of Democratic
Struggle (PDI-P) party followed at 17% in both polls (PDI-P
is the second largest party in Parliament).
Golkar--Indonesia's largest party with 23 percent of the
seats in Parliament--was third with 13 or 14 percent of the
respondents. Indonesia's various Muslim-oriented parties are
all lagging behind.
3. (U) The latest polls represent an increase in
popularity for PD. Polls published in November by the same
research institutes showed that PD was in the lead, but only
barely, with a very slim margin over its competitors.
Polling before that showed that Golkar and PDI-P were in the
lead with other parties--including PD--behind.
RIDING THE PRESIDENT'S COATTAILS
4. (C) PD's image is closely tied to that of President
Yudhoyono. It is a small party with more image than
structure, mainly conceived as a vehicle for his 2004
election. The party only won 7.45% of the vote in 2004
(actually a good showing for a new party) and has a limited
presence in Parliament (57 seats out of 550),a factor which
has meant that the President has to rely on an unwieldy
coalition approach to governing. As reviewed in reftels, the
President's popularity has rebounded from a low after his
government raised fuel prices in early 2008. The President
has benefited by maintaining a clean image on the
anti-corruption front, and his response to the global
financial crisis has been steady.
5. (C) PD has been able to latch itself on to the
President's rise in popularity. Tri Sukma "Nanu" Djandam, an
adviser to the President on international relations, told
Pol/C on January 7 that he did not think PD itself was doing
anything differently -- "The main factor in the party's rise
has been the President's leadership and people's appreciation
of that. The party itself has not switched tactics or been
running a brilliant campaign. It is all 'sink or swim' with
the President."
IT'S STILL EARLY
6. (C) PD's lead is a bit of surprise and quite possibly
won't hold up. The party is lucky to be tied to a relatively
popular president, but--when push comes to shove--it takes a
lot of effort to lure voters to the polls and PD is not known
to have a strong organization. This has been shown, for
example, in the fate of PD gubernatorial candidates, most of
whom have lost (despite the link to Yudhoyono). Over all,
JAKARTA 00000024 002.2 OF 002
the campaign season is just beginning, and it is too early to
tell if PD can overcome Golkar and PDI-P, Indonesia's two
political heavyweights. It is also noteworthy that Golkar
and PDI-P are only beginning to rev up their campaigns.
7. (C) If PD does do well in April, however, it would help
the President in an immediate, concrete sense by helping him
get his name on the presidential ballot. The threshold of
support needed to do that is steep, and depends on how one's
party or coalition of parties does in the legislative
election. Observers believe that the President will make the
threshold, but a strong showing by PD can help ensure that.
HEFFERN