ONCE KEY POLITICAL PARTY SEARCHES FOR NEW LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001597 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS. EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR D. WALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: ONCE KEY POLITICAL PARTY SEARCHES FOR NEW LEADER AND FOR A CHANGE IN ITS FORTUNES REF: JAKARTA 1305 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Indonesia's Golkar Party is facing a leadership fight which is slated to be decided by early October. With current party head Vice President Kalla stepping down soon, a number of challengers have emerged for the Golkar chair job, including: Coordinating Minister for the People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie and media tycoon Surya Paloh. At this point, Bakrie seems to hold an advantage in the race due to his close links with President Yudhoyono who recently won reelection and is ascendant on the political scene. Once Indonesia's preeminent party, Golkar has been losing electoral support to other secular-oriented parties and needs to stem the decline in order to stay relevant. END SUMMARY. LEADERSHIP RACE ¶2. (SBU) Indonesia's Golkar Party is facing a leadership fight. The contest for party chair is necessitated by Vice President Jusuf Kalla's decision to step down after almost five years in the post. This comes after Kalla performed miserably in July's presidential election, finishing far behind President Yudhoyono who decisively won with over 60 percent of the vote. The leadership race is due to be decided in a party conference to be held October 4-7 in Riau in western Indonesia. THE CANDIDATES ¶3. (C) There are at least five candidates for the Golkar chair position, including: -- Aburizal Bakrie: Bakrie is currently Coordinating Minister for the People's Welfare in Yudhoyono's government. He is the scion of one of Indonesia's richest families. Bakrie and his family run a wide-ranging conglomerate with interests in real estate, agriculture trade, shipping, banking, insurance, media, construction, and manufacturing, etc. Much to his political embarrassment, a Bakrie-linked enterprise -- excavating for natural gas in eastern Java -- helped spark the mud flow which inundated neighboring villages beginning in 2006. Bakrie, a major donor to political campaigns, is considered to be close to President Yudhoyono. -- Surya Paloh: Paloh is a longtime member of the Golkar board. He is wealthy and owns a number of media interests, including Metro TV and several newspapers. He is a major donor to Golkar's political campaigns and has often served as spokesman of the party. -- Yuddy Chrisnandy. Chrisnandy is a Member of Parliament from West Java Province. He is well-spoken and well thought of by younger members of the party. His rallying cry is that Golkar needs to change and adjust itself to political realities by making itself more relevant to young Indonesians. -- Humtomo Mandala Putra (Tommy Suharto): Tommy is the youngest son of the late president. He has a very controversial reputation. He was implicated in a plot to murder a judge and in various cases involving corruption. He has been active as a businessman in the past several years and is quite wealthy. Suharto has not been involved in Golkar politics, but, despite that, recently stated that he wanted to head the party. -- Ferry Mursydan Baldan: Baldan is an MP. He is considered an effective lawmaker and a serious person without Chrisnandy's somewhat erratic edge. BAKRIE FAVORED ¶4. (C) Of the crop of candidates, Bakrie seems to have the advantage. First, Bakrie has loads of money and is in position to use that edge to advance his candidacy. Second, Bakrie is a close associate of President Yudhoyono's which is a huge advantage given the President's popularity. Moreover, Golkar, which essentially has little by way of ideology, is looking for a way to stay in government and Bakrie could be the ticket. All that said, Bakrie is a bit controversial and his popularity took a serious hit because of the mud flow debacle. His most serious opponent is Surya Paloh who also has lots of money (though not quite as much as Bakrie does). JAKARTA 00001597 002 OF 002 Paloh has singular advantages, however: he has been closely involved in Golkar politics for many years and knows all the party insiders. Given that the race for support involves these insiders, this factor could be significant. In addition, Paloh knows the party rules and how to use them to his advantage. TRYING TO STEM THE DECLINE ¶5. (C) Golkar is in serious trouble and it is not clear whether it has hit its nadir. In the recent parliamentary elections, its support dropped to 14 percent nationally versus the 21 percent of votes received in 2004. And, as mentioned, its presidential candidate, Kalla, failed miserably in the recent polls. This, at the same time that President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat, another secular-oriented party, has steadily gained in support. The general feeling is that the party is failing to connect with younger voters because it has an opportunistic, "smoked-filled room," money politics-type of image. It is not clear whether any of the crop of candidates for party chief can reverse the party's decline. That said, as a probable member of the President's coalition, Golkar will remain in the political game as a force in Parliament and due to the fact that it will probably have several ministers in the Cabinet. Beyond that, its prognosis is not good unless it finds a way to re-brand itself. HUME