Climate Change - Taking Advantage of SBY's Moment

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001562 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SECC, OES/EGC, AND EAP/MTS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR EAID KGHG SENV PREL ID SUBJECT: Climate Change - Taking Advantage of SBY's Moment REF: A. Jakarta 1421 ¶B. Jakarta 1473 ¶1. (U) This is an action message; please see para 8. ¶2. (SBU) Summary: The U.S. has an opportunity to shape newly re-elected President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's (SBY) climate agenda. The U.S. could seek a Yudhoyono presidential declaration - perhaps timed for President Obama's potential visit in November - to limit new plantations to previously degraded land. This will significantly reduce emissions by preserving Indonesia's forests and peat lands. An enhanced U.S. partnership on environmental management and climate will help Yudhoyono confront vested logging, plantation and bureaucratic interests. Our partnership with Indonesia could catalyze additional hundreds of millions of dollars in donor support from other nations. A Yudhoyono announcement could provide a boost to Copenhagen negotiations in December. End Summary. ¶3. (SBU) As the third largest global emitter, Indonesia is key to any global solution for climate change. While Indonesia alone does not have the influence to determine a global deal on climate, its non-participation or failure to achieve reductions would cause any global solution to fail. Roughly 80% of Indonesia's green house gas (GHG) emissions come from the annual degradation of forests and peat lands, and that number accounts for about 5% of world emissions. While industrial sources of emissions in Indonesia are predicted to rise several fold in the coming few decades, destruction of forests and peat negatively impact the world today. In addition, the cost for GHG reductions from forests and peat could be much cheaper than other sources of global reductions. A Chance to Leave Behind a Lasting Legacy -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Indonesian President Yudhoyono won his re-election by majority popular vote, giving him an increased (but certainly not absolute) ability to confront vested interests. Yudhoyono has a strong record of international leadership on climate with the hosting of COP-13, the Bali Action Plan, the Forest-11, the Coral Triangle Initiative and the World Ocean Conference. He will be looking to leave a legacy by the end of his final term in office in 2014, and we assess that he would consider Indonesian leadership and contributions to a global climate solution as a potential achievement. Indonesian Declaration on Peat and Forests -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In the past few years, Yudhoyono has privately stated that he agrees that every country must take on binding emission reduction commitments, though at differing levels for advanced and developing countries. Indonesia indicated that it may be willing to commit to a specific reduction of 40% from its business-as-usual (BAU) scenario if it receives assistance from donor countries. In order to be credible, Indonesia needs to take some initial steps to reduce its emissions. Yudhoyono's senior advisors say a presidential declaration, having the force of law, to reduce emissions from forests and peat lands is in the realm of possibility, but would require high-level support and encouragement from the U.S. and other donors (Ref A). Such a declaration would set a clear direction for Indonesia at the outset of Yudhoyono's new administration. Such a concrete positive step could help inject momentum into Copenhagen discussions and lay the groundwork for putting peer pressure on other key actors in the negotiations. ¶6. (SBU) But Yudhoyono would need clear support from the U.S. to take this bold step. Advisors and Indonesia climate experts repeatedly say that Yudhoyono must be armed with viable alternatives for the vested interests if he is to effectively change behavior. Ideally, pending US climate legislation that creates a carbon market with international offsets, including "avoided deforestation," would provide the incentives to Indonesia for saving its forests and peat lands. Short of a ready announcement on U.S. legislation, there is a smaller, but significant package of U.S. assistance that could be characterized as seed support. U.S. Support Augmented by International Donors -------------- - JAKARTA 00001562 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) These bilateral activities include USAID's $150 million in climate related assistance on mitigation on forestry and energy and adaptation on marine and water/sanitation. In addition to the Tropical Forest Conservation Act (TFCA) recently launched in Sumatra for $30 million, the U.S. could announce the beginning of work for a TFCA for Papua. We also recently proposed an Indonesia-U.S. Center for Sustainable Ocean Fisheries to assist with food security (Ref B). However, the totaling of the assistance packages by other major donor nations could possibly reach up to a billion dollars. This would make an even more compelling case for Indonesia to take positive game-changing action. Senior Indonesian climate officials have indicated privately that such numbers would help turn Indonesian thinking toward the benefits of conservation instead of cutting forests down for the wood or draining peat lands for plantations. International donors resident in Jakarta have said they welcome U.S. leadership in pressing Indonesia for policy change and renewed engagement on donor assistance on climate. ¶8. (SBU) Action Request: Senior U.S. climate officials should propose the concept of advancing the U.S.-Indonesia climate partnership through the presidential declaration and U.S. support package at the next opportunity with senior Indonesian officials. Post understands that Minister of Environment and Chief Climate Negotiator Rachmat Witoelar will attend the September MEF, G-20 meeting, and UN meetings. OSIUS