C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001236

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR J. BADER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: OFFICIAL RESULTS CONFIRM THAT YUDHOYONO WON
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

REF: JAKARTA 1230 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: As expected, final results have confirmed
that President Yudhoyono won the July 8 presidential
election, taking over 60 percent of the vote. Yudhoyono's
victory was also broad-based, winning 28 of 33 provinces.
Former president Megawati--who finished a distant
second--continues to dispute the election's credibility;
opposition complaints are not picking up any traction,
however. For Yudhoyono, the official news re the election is
positive and he should be celebrating, but he has suffered
political damage for meandering comments made right after the
July 17 Jakarta bomb blasts. END SUMMARY.

FINAL RESULTS CONFIRM THAT YUDHOYONO WON


2. (U) Final results have confirmed that President
Yudhoyono and his Vice Presidential running mate, Boediono
(one name only), won the July 8 presidential election. This
result had been expected based on previously published "quick
counts" which showed that Yudhoyono had a wide lead. Based
on the final results released late on July 23 by the Election
Commission (KPU), President Yudhoyono garnered about 61
percent of the total vote. This is well above the fifty
percent threshold required in order to avoid a run-off
election in September. Former president Megawati
Sukarnoputri came in second with 26.79 percent of the vote
while Vice President Kalla trailed far back at 12.41 percent.

SBY TAKES 28 0F 33 PROVINCES


3. (SBU) In addition to the overall count, Yudhoyono won
28 of the country's 33 provinces. (Note: To be elected
President, a candidate must also win a minimum result in at
least 17 provinces to ensure that he/she really has broad
national support.) The official tallies indicate that
President Yudhoyono won vote-rich West Java, Central Java,
and East Java. He also won throughout populous Sumatra
Island and less populated areas such as the Papuan region.
He also won a resounding 70 percent of the Jakarta region's
vote. Meanwhile, Megawati won only in her stronghold of Bali
(she is part Balinese). Vice President Kalla won in his home

region of South Sulawesi province and three other provinces.


4. (SBU) The KPU finished the counting process--which was
open to the public--early. The KPU has counted 121.5 million
votes, including 17,000 unregistered voters. (Note: Due to
logistical difficulties with voter lists, a last minute
Constitutional Court decision allowed unregistered voters to
vote with ID cards.) There were roughly 176 million people
registered to vote. Voter turnout was estimated at 72.56
percent, 2 percent higher than the April 2009 legislative
election, but lower than the 78 and 76 percent turnout for
the first and second rounds of the 2004 election. The
percentage of invalid ballots was estimated to be 5 percent.


5. (SBU) The KPU plans to announce the results in an
official ceremony July 25. Police have sealed off streets
around the KPU headquarters in central Jakarta as they ramp
up security ahead of the official announcement.

CONTESTING THE RESULTS


6. (SBU) Observers do not expect more than a handful of
Indonesians to join in any protests re the results, as most
seem to be content with the outcome. That said, losing
candidates have between July 25-27 to file complaints. The
Megawati team--which has already filed complaints with
electoral bodies and had some thrown out--announced that it
will soon release "evidence of electoral fraud." It is
unclear whether Kalla's camp will join Megawati's in
contesting the results. Kalla himself has already conceded.



7. (SBU) Indonesian law requires that the losing
candidates actually sign an official result document.
Members from both losing camps have to date reportedly
refused to sign official reports. The KPU has announced that
the opposition camp's refusal to sign off on results will not
deter the KPU from announcing the results as planned.
Moreover, the KPU declared that even if the losing candidates
refuse to sign the report of the final results, those results
will still be considered valid. All preparations for the

JAKARTA 00001236 002 OF 002


official announcement are on track and it is expected to go
smoothly. If the losing candidates do file complaints, the
Constitutional Court has until August 11 to review the
challenges.

THE PRESIDENT SHOULD BE CELEBRATING BUT...


8. (C) For Yudhoyono, the official news re the election is
positive and he should be celebrating after a long and
successful campaign. After all, the next event he gets to
look forward to is his inauguration for another five-year
term on October 20. These are not good times for the
President, however. As reported in reftels, he is drawing
serious flak for meandering comments made right after the
July 17 bomb blasts in Jakarta that seemed to blame unnamed
political opponents for the blasts while referring ominously
to "draculas and purveyors of death in our country." The
President--somewhat solipsistically--also asserted that he
was a major terrorist target and, at one point, he held up a
photo of himself that he said terror groups had used for
target practice.


9. (C) Since those remarks, a cascade of press pieces have
cited politicians and observers criticizing the President.
Pol/C, for example, recently visited West Sumatra where
almost 80 percent of voters supported the President in the
recent election. Political leaders there, while strong
supporters of the President's, asserted that Yudhoyono had
been seriously off message. Since those remarks were made,
Yudhoyono has gotten back on track, publicly urging security
agencies to focus on the task at hand. Political damage has
already been done, however.

HUME