OFFICIAL RESULTS CONFIRM THAT YUDHOYONO WON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001236 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR J. BADER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID SUBJECT: OFFICIAL RESULTS CONFIRM THAT YUDHOYONO WON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REF: JAKARTA 1230 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: As expected, final results have confirmed that President Yudhoyono won the July 8 presidential election, taking over 60 percent of the vote. Yudhoyono's victory was also broad-based, winning 28 of 33 provinces. Former president Megawati--who finished a distant second--continues to dispute the election's credibility; opposition complaints are not picking up any traction, however. For Yudhoyono, the official news re the election is positive and he should be celebrating, but he has suffered political damage for meandering comments made right after the July 17 Jakarta bomb blasts. END SUMMARY. FINAL RESULTS CONFIRM THAT YUDHOYONO WON ¶2. (U) Final results have confirmed that President Yudhoyono and his Vice Presidential running mate, Boediono (one name only),won the July 8 presidential election. This result had been expected based on previously published "quick counts" which showed that Yudhoyono had a wide lead. Based on the final results released late on July 23 by the Election Commission (KPU),President Yudhoyono garnered about 61 percent of the total vote. This is well above the fifty percent threshold required in order to avoid a run-off election in September. Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri came in second with 26.79 percent of the vote while Vice President Kalla trailed far back at 12.41 percent. SBY TAKES 28 0F 33 PROVINCES ¶3. (SBU) In addition to the overall count, Yudhoyono won 28 of the country's 33 provinces. (Note: To be elected President, a candidate must also win a minimum result in at least 17 provinces to ensure that he/she really has broad national support.) The official tallies indicate that President Yudhoyono won vote-rich West Java, Central Java, and East Java. He also won throughout populous Sumatra Island and less populated areas such as the Papuan region. He also won a resounding 70 percent of the Jakarta region's vote. Meanwhile, Megawati won only in her stronghold of Bali (she is part Balinese). Vice President Kalla won in his home region of South Sulawesi province and three other provinces. ¶4. (SBU) The KPU finished the counting process--which was open to the public--early. The KPU has counted 121.5 million votes, including 17,000 unregistered voters. (Note: Due to logistical difficulties with voter lists, a last minute Constitutional Court decision allowed unregistered voters to vote with ID cards.) There were roughly 176 million people registered to vote. Voter turnout was estimated at 72.56 percent, 2 percent higher than the April 2009 legislative election, but lower than the 78 and 76 percent turnout for the first and second rounds of the 2004 election. The percentage of invalid ballots was estimated to be 5 percent. ¶5. (SBU) The KPU plans to announce the results in an official ceremony July 25. Police have sealed off streets around the KPU headquarters in central Jakarta as they ramp up security ahead of the official announcement. CONTESTING THE RESULTS ¶6. (SBU) Observers do not expect more than a handful of Indonesians to join in any protests re the results, as most seem to be content with the outcome. That said, losing candidates have between July 25-27 to file complaints. The Megawati team--which has already filed complaints with electoral bodies and had some thrown out--announced that it will soon release "evidence of electoral fraud." It is unclear whether Kalla's camp will join Megawati's in contesting the results. Kalla himself has already conceded. ¶7. (SBU) Indonesian law requires that the losing candidates actually sign an official result document. Members from both losing camps have to date reportedly refused to sign official reports. The KPU has announced that the opposition camp's refusal to sign off on results will not deter the KPU from announcing the results as planned. Moreover, the KPU declared that even if the losing candidates refuse to sign the report of the final results, those results will still be considered valid. All preparations for the JAKARTA 00001236 002 OF 002 official announcement are on track and it is expected to go smoothly. If the losing candidates do file complaints, the Constitutional Court has until August 11 to review the challenges. THE PRESIDENT SHOULD BE CELEBRATING BUT... ¶8. (C) For Yudhoyono, the official news re the election is positive and he should be celebrating after a long and successful campaign. After all, the next event he gets to look forward to is his inauguration for another five-year term on October 20. These are not good times for the President, however. As reported in reftels, he is drawing serious flak for meandering comments made right after the July 17 bomb blasts in Jakarta that seemed to blame unnamed political opponents for the blasts while referring ominously to "draculas and purveyors of death in our country." The President--somewhat solipsistically--also asserted that he was a major terrorist target and, at one point, he held up a photo of himself that he said terror groups had used for target practice. ¶9. (C) Since those remarks, a cascade of press pieces have cited politicians and observers criticizing the President. Pol/C, for example, recently visited West Sumatra where almost 80 percent of voters supported the President in the recent election. Political leaders there, while strong supporters of the President's, asserted that Yudhoyono had been seriously off message. Since those remarks were made, Yudhoyono has gotten back on track, publicly urging security agencies to focus on the task at hand. Political damage has already been done, however. HUME