PRESIDENT'S BIG VICTORY SPARKS DEBATE ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001171 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR J. BADER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S BIG VICTORY SPARKS DEBATE ABOUT OPPOSITION'S FUTURE REF: JAKARTA 1157 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Yudhoyono's resounding victory in the recent presidential election--now backed up by official figures--has sparked debate about the future of the opposition and its leaders. Badly trounced in recent elections, VP Kalla's Golkar Party seems set to re-invent itself in order to try to stay relevant. Kalla made the first step toward this by announcing that he would not run again for the top job of Golkar. Meanwhile, the other defeated presidential candidate, Megawati, seems set to remain in control of her PDIP party, but her political influence has taken a hit as has the standing of PDIP. END SUMMARY. YUDHOYONO WAY AHEAD IN OFFICIAL COUNT ¶2. (U) Two days after the July 8 election, the precise dimensions of President Yudhoyono's victory continue to emerge, reinforced by official results from the Election Commission (KPU). The President, for example, won more than 40 percent of the popular vote in all but one of Indonesia's thirty-three provinces (South Sulawesi, VP Jusuf Kalla's stronghold.). He even won Aceh Province easily despite VP Kalla's significant contributions to the peace process there. In the meantime, the ongoing official vote count is matching the so called "quick counts" which already have anointed Yudhoyono as the big winner. The KPU count, now at 10 percent of the total, is reflected below in percentage figures for each candidate: Candidate Percentage won Yudhyono/Boediono 61.66 Kalla/Wiranto 9.77 Megawati/Prabowo 28.57 GOLKAR'S NEXT STEPS ¶3. (SBU) Reverberations from the big win continue. VP Kalla called President Yudhoyono late on July 9 to congratulate him. Both he and Yudhoyono vowed to run the government together smoothly until the end of their tenure on October 20. Yudhoyono praised Kalla, saying that he was a "great figure" who had contributed much to the nation, and added that "the nation still needs Jusuf Kalla, whatever his role." By making these and other soundings, Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD) seems to be indicating that PD is open to a possible coalition with Golkar. ¶4. (C) The situation is difficult for Golkar. The party is used to being in power and has never been in opposition until recently. In this election, it joined forces with Megawati's party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP),in order to stand against Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat. It seems likely that this election-forced "shotgun wedding" coalition will dissolve, but the Golkar Party remains split on whether to continue to link with PDIP for now. ¶5. (C) Golkar was one of only three parties permitted to exist under Suharto's rule--and it served as the ruling party. Previously the largest and most influential party in Parliament (DPR),its support has fallen dramatically since Kalla took over in 2004. Golkar's share of DPR seats shrank from 23.3 percent in 2004 to 14.45 percent in 2009 (and from 21.58 to 14.4 percent in the national vote),for example. ¶6. (C) Observers agree that Golkar has to formulate new strategies in order to stay relevant. Some of its senior members have demanded an extraordinary congress (two-thirds of the party's regional branches must agree to it) ahead of the regularly scheduled October congress to speed up the leadership succession. Fresh off his trouncing in the presidential election, Kalla has already announced that he will not run again for the Golkar chairmanship. During the congress, the Party will elect a new leader and decide on whether to join the government or stay in opposition. Deciding to stay in opposition would mean a stark change in Golkar culture. ¶7. (C) Choosing a new leader could ease the transition for Golkar back into the government if it chooses to do so. The two most likely candidates vying for the Golkar chairmanship JAKARTA 00001171 002 OF 002 are media magnate Surya Paloh or Aburizal Bakrie, currently Coordinating Minister for the Economy. Of the two, Bakrie is best positioned to take over and is a more palatable alternative for Yudhoyono to work with. Neither man is considered a fresh face or particularly reform minded, however. MEGAWATI MAINTAINS GRIP ON PARTY ¶8. (C) In the meantime, former president Megawati is dealing with the after shocks of her latest defeat. A three time loser in presidential elections (indirectly to Abdurahman Wahid in 1999 and directly to Yudhoyono in 2004 and 2009), Megawati has patented the art of sour grapes, always refusing to congratulate her victorious opponents. Despite her loss, she did much better than Kalla. In 2004, she achieved 38 percent of the vote when she was running as an incumbent. In 2009, she received roughly 28 percent of the support running against the incumbent. While this is not a stellar showing, it shows that she has maintained her grip on the core of her grass roots support. ¶9. (C) Megawati's party, PDIP, is likely to remain in opposition pressing populist policies despite PD's recent indications that both PDIP and Golkar would be welcome in the new cabinet. Many feel Megawati is grooming her daughter, Puan Maharani, (who has just won a DPR seat),to take over the party. For the meantime, however, Megawati--this daughter of the nation's first president, a respected anti-Suharto figure in her own right and a former president--seems unlikely to fade away quietly from the national scene. That said, her political influence is diminishing. HUME