PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO BASKS IN GLOW OF BIG VICTORY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001160 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR J. BADER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO BASKS IN GLOW OF BIG VICTORY REF: JAKARTA 1157 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified -- Please handle accordingly. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Voters gave President Yudhoyono a landslide victory, according to preliminary results from quick counts, in Indonesia's presidential election on July 8. Although official results are not expected until later this month, most Indonesians--completely confident about the quick counts--are already accepting the news as a fait accompli. That said, Megawati Sukarnoputri, who ran a distant second, has continued to claim (with little real vigor) that the election was flawed. Vice President Kalla's camp, on the other hand, congratulated the President on his win. Mission issued the statement contained in para 10 congratulating Indonesia on its vibrant democracy. END SUMMARY. PRESIDENT'S BIG WIN ¶3. (SBU) It's Yudhoyono in a landslide! President Yudhoyono won a deep and broad-based victory in the July 8 presidential election. He handily defeated his former boss and 2004 challenger, former president Megawati, who came in a distant second. His vice president, Jusuf Kalla, who had attempted to rally support from Muslim groups, failed to translate this base into many votes. His lackluster third place showing indicated that he did not even get full support from his own party, Golkar. ¶4. (U) Below are quick counts from three of the most respected survey institutes: Candidate LSI Puskaptis LP3ES Yudhyono/Boediono 60.85 57.95 60.28 Kalla/Wiranto 12.59 13.89 12.32 Megawati/Prabowo 26.56 28.16 27.40 LSI = Indonesian Survey Institute Puskaptis = Strategic Center for Development and Policy Review LP3ES = Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education, and Information QUICK COUNT MECHANICS ¶5. (SBU) Although official results are not expected until later this month, most Indonesians--confident about the quick counts--are already accepting the apparent Yudhoyono triumph as a fait accompli. Survey institutes have used quick counts to predict election outcomes in Indonesia since 1999 and the practice became widely accepted during the 2004 elections. The National Democratic Institute and other groups consider the polling companies that do quick counts largely trustworthy. ¶6. (SBU) Indonesian institutes ran two types of quick counts during the recent election: exit polls and quick counts. Exit polls, which are generally less reliable, are based on what people tell you about how they voted when they leave the polls. Quick counts, (also called parallel vote tabulations) are based on what researchers observe. Observers watch as the votes are counted at a number of polling stations (chosen from a statistical sample) and report the numbers tabulated. ¶7. (SBU) For the first time, the Election Commission (KPU) implemented its own official quick count system with the support of the International Foundation for Elections. The KPU implemented this pilot sms system at 20% of the 451,000 polling stations. The system transmitted over 18 million votes by sms (instant messaging) to the KPU. These results closely parallel that of the quick counts. MIXED REACTIONS FROM MEGAWATI, KALLA ¶8. (SBU) Vice President Kalla basically conceded defeat not long after the polls closed, and the head of his campaign team issued an official message congratulating Yudhyono and Boediono (the President's VP running mate) on their apparent electoral success. Kalla's dismal performance in the polls is likely to leave him open to challenges to his position as Golkar Party Chair. It may also make for an uncomfortable end to the Yudhoyono-Kalla tenure (which lasts until October JAKARTA 00001160 002 OF 002 when their joint term ends),though both Yudhoyono and Kalla have underlined that they plan to work together in the nation's interest. ¶9. (SBU) Megawati's team, on the other hand, denounced the elections as "flawed" and not transparent. Megawati herself has made some meandering comments to this effect. VP running mate Prabowo Subianto's brother Hashim announced that the campaign's examination of the voter list less than 24 hours before the elections revealed 4.6 million fictitious names. Megawati's campaign does not seem wholly committed to their claims, however, and it is not clear whether they might file an electoral complaint. They have not sponsored any rallies or demonstrations. The problem for the Megawati camp is that almost all credible organizations have basically labeled the election as largely free and fair. MISSION STATEMENT ¶10. (U) The Mission issued a statement in a press release on July 9. The text is below: Begin text: We congratulate the government and people of Indonesia on a peaceful and orderly election. This election has again demonstrated the commitment of Indonesians to their vibrant democracy. We also congratulate President Yudhoyono on his apparent victory and look forward to building stronger relations between our two countries. End text. HUME