INDONESIA VOTES PEACEFULLY; PRESIDENT SEEMS TO

UNCLAS JAKARTA 001157 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR J. BADER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: INDONESIA VOTES PEACEFULLY; PRESIDENT SEEMS TO HAVE WON IN LANDSLIDE REF: A. JAKARTA - OPS CENTER 07-08-09 TELECONS/EMAILS ¶B. JAKARTA 1149 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified; it was coordinated with Consulates Medan and Surabaya. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Indonesia's presidential election went smoothly and peacefully on July 8. Preliminary exit polls indicate that President Yudhoyono is likely to win by a landslide, with 60.83 percent of the vote. Main opponent Megawati is at 26.47 percent while Vice President Kalla is lagging behind at 12.7 percent of the vote. If this result is confirmed, there will be no need for a second round of voting. Official results are expected later this month. All in all, the Election Commission--which has received USG assistance--seems to have run a reasonably effective election apparatus. END SUMMARY. ELECTION PEACEFUL ¶3. (SBU) Emboffs who observed the election in various locations across the country reported that the process seemed secure, free and peaceful. DCM observed polling stations in Menteng, Central Jakarta, while others observed polling stations from Aceh to Central Java to the Kalimantan region. Some 250,000 police were deployed across the country to maintain security. Voters seemed relaxed and little tension was reported. ¶4. (SBU) Figures on voter participation are not yet in but roughly 75 percent of Indonesians probably turned out. The election news from Aceh Province in Sumatra was positive and violence-free. In Papua, voting went smoothly. However, in the Timika region of southern Papua some 15-20 people burned three vehicles owned by U.S. mining company Freeport McMoran and ransacked several offices early on July 8. No one was injured. The incident was probably politically-motivated (though it is unclear whether it had a link to the national election),as perpetrators were apprehended carrying the Papuan flag. No other incidents in the restive Papuan region have been reported. DESPITE CONCERNS, POLLING ORDERLY ¶5. (SBU) Polls opened and closed mostly on time, although some extra time was required to register unregistered voters using their national identity cards to vote (a court had ruled on July 6 that citizens could vote using ID cards if they were not on the registration list). With only three candidates to choose from, the voting process was much faster than during the complicated legislative elections in April. All in all, the Election Commission--which has received USG assistance--seems to have run a reasonably effective election apparatus. PRESIDENT WITH BIG LEAD IN EARLY RETURNS ¶6. (SBU) President Yudhoyono seems headed for a huge victory. Early quick count results from the most reliable survey institute, Lembaga Survei Institute, indicated that President Yudhoyono has an early lead of 60.83 percent of the vote, with Megawati at 26.47 percent and Vice President Kalla lagging behind at 12.7 percent. Although quick counts are now flowing in from several survey institutes, they remain preliminary, but all show that Yudhoyono has a huge lead both nationally and in at least 24 provinces. If official results confirm that he has won over 50% of the vote nationally and at least twenty percent of votes in 17 provinces (two requirements which he has apparently exceeded),he wins outright and there will be no runoff election in September. Official results are expected later this month. The inauguration of the next president is in October. HUME