ENGAGING PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO SHOULD HE WIN A

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 001149 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR J. BADER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: ENGAGING PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO SHOULD HE WIN A SECOND TERM REF: JAKARTA 1135 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Cameron R. Hume, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Yudhoyono is widely expected to win a second term in the presidential election scheduled for July 8 without the need for a runoff in September. The election is expected to be largely free, fair and peaceful. It will solidify Indonesia's shift towards a strong and stable democracy. Assuming that President Yudhoyono wins on July 8, we should engage him quickly to ensure progress on U.S. priorities during his second term. Suggested next steps on engagement are included in paras 4-5. END SUMMARY. WAY AHEAD IN THE POLLS ¶2. (C) On July 8, Indonesia will hold its second direct presidential election since the end of the Suharto period in ¶1998. President Yudhoyono and his vice presidential running mate Boediono (one name only) are leading in most polls by a wide margin and are expected to win more than 50 percent of the vote, obviating the need for a runoff election in September. Recent opinion polls show former president Megawati Sukarnoputri running second with approximately 20 percent and Vice President Jusuf Kalla running a distant third. YUDHOYONO: A POSITIVE FORCE ¶3. (C) Since 2004 when he was first elected, Yudhoyono has pushed anti-corruption efforts, taken a constructive position on most regional and international issues, clamped down on terrorism and helped make Indonesia one of the strongest democracies in Asia. He has also set the course for greater cooperation between Indonesia and the United States in the form of a Comprehensive Partnership focused on building regional and international security, deepening trade and investment relations, partnering to address climate change, and expanding people-to-people ties. All in all, the Yudhoyono years have been positive ones for Indonesia, which is increasingly seen as an important international player. NEXT STEPS ASSUMING A BIG YUDHOYONO WIN ON JULY 8 ¶4. (C) Assuming that President Yudhoyono wins a first round victory on July 8, we recommend the following near term steps to engage him and help ensure progress on USG priorities during a second term: * Presidential Phone Call - We recommend that President Obama call President Yudhoyono to congratulate him. President Yudhoyono would welcome this, and a call would provide an opportunity to discuss the President's possible visit to Indonesia and our developing Comprehensive Partnership. * Vice Presidential Phone Call - Vice Presidential running mate Boediono, an American-educated technocrat, is likely to be a valuable interlocutor for senior USG officials. A call from Vice President Biden would help build a relationship with him and set the stage for subsequent engagement. * Department Statement - We recommend that the Department issue a statement congratulating the Indonesian people on a successful election. This would help draw the world's attention to the strength and stability of Indonesia's democracy. ¶5. (U) If Yudhoyono does not win the July 8 election outright and the race has to go to another round, we suggest that the Department simply prepare press guidance focused on our support for the ongoing democratic process. HUME