PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN WRAPS UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001135 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR J CARTIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN WRAPS UP REF: A. JAKARTA - OPS CENTER 07-03-09 TELCON + EMAIL ¶B. JAKARTA 01048 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: As the presidential election on July 8 fast approaches, the three candidates wrapped up their campaigns on July 4 ahead of the official "cooling off period." The last of three presidential debates (held on July 2) was livelier than the others, but did not seem to undermine President Yudhoyono's lead, which remains large according to the latest polls. Observers increasingly think that Yudhoyono can win in the first round by attaining over 50 percent of the vote and thus obviating the need for a September runoff. The election is expected to be largely free, fair and peaceful. Mission observation teams are traveling to key regions, such as Aceh and Papua. END SUMMARY. CAMPAIGN WRAPS UP ¶2. (SBU) Campaigning wrapped up in Indonesia on July 4 ahead of the July 8 presidential election. President Yudhoyono held a 150,000-strong rally in Jakarta featuring a line up of top name bands, tying up the city's traffic for hours. Yudhoyono declared to his supporters: "God willing, in the next five years, the world will say 'Indonesia is something, Indonesia is rising.'" Meanwhile, Vice President Jusuf Kalla visited several cities in East Java. Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, on the other hand, spent her last campaign day in vote rich Central Java. After the presidential candidates completed their campaigning on July 4, workers began clearing the streets of campaign materials for the three day "cooling off period" before election day during which campaign activities are banned. FINAL DEBATE ¶3. (C) The third and final presidential debate held on July 2 in Jakarta was livelier than the others but held no surprises. Vice President Jusuf Kalla pressed his case hard, taking a populist stance on economic issues. President Yudhoyono successfully defended his record. As has been her style, former president Megawati seemed to hang back a bit. Analysts concluded that although the debate may have helped Kalla somewhat, it did little to narrow the large lead that Yudhoyono has maintained throughout the campaign. ¶4. (SBU) In a campaign which has largely avoided negative issues, a key moment in the debate occurred when Vice President Kalla criticized President Yudhoyono for using a print media ad which declares that voting Yudhoyono back into office in one round would save the country trillions of Rupiah in public expenditures by avoiding a September run-off. Yudhoyono replied that the ad was not produced by his campaign and he didn't have to answer for it. ¶5. (C) Separately, Megawati and Kalla are implicitly criticizing Yudhoyono's administration by focusing on alleged voter list irregularities. They joined forces with Din Syamsuddin, Chair of Muhammadiyah (Indonesia's second largest Muslim organization),to "express disappointment" with the government and demand that the electoral commission amend the voter list to root out possible fraud. (Note: Syamsuddin has backed the Kalla-Wiranto ticket on behalf of Muhammadiyah.) The Election Commission admitted to finding electoral irregularities in several areas but stated that it has revised the rolls accordingly. Megawati and Kalla officials plan to meet with the KPU today to discuss the matter. Many observers believe that the two camps are trying to raise the alleged problems with the voter list in order to explain away a possible serious setback in the July 8 vote. YUDHOYONO WAY AHEAD IN POLLS ¶6. (SBU) In two recent polls, Yudhoyono is still leading by a large margin. In the first, Yudhoyono led by 63% with the other two candidates falling far back. Meanwhile, a poll conducted last week showed Yudhoyono at 51.95%, again with the other candidates falling far back. ¶7. (SBU) Polls indicate that three quarters of the Indonesian public are satisfied with the job Yudhoyono is doing, and 86 % express confidence in his administration. This is close to the level of confidence they have in religious leaders and the military, and far ahead of the legislature and political parties. Seven in ten Indonesians believe that things are generally going in the right JAKARTA 00001135 002 OF 002 direction, and that Yudhoyono's government has been effective on the economy and in curbing corruption. Overall, he is seen as the most credible person to lead the country. ¶8. (U) Below are listed the results of the latest two polls: Candidate LSI (July 2) Puskaptis (July 2) Yudhyono/Boediono 63.1 51.95 Kalla/Wiranto 10.6 22.25 Megawati/Prabowo 19.6 18.27 Undecided 6.7 7.53 LSI = Indonesian Survey Institute Puskaptis = Strategic Center for Development and Policy Review EXPECTING A FREE, FAIR AND PEACEFUL ELECTION ¶9. (C) As Indonesians prepare to cast their votes on July 8, President Yudhoyono clearly remains way ahead. Although surveys are not always considered reliable in Indonesia, the main debate among observers in this campaign has been about how much Yudhoyono is leading by and not whether he is leading. Observers are asking simply whether he can win in one round or whether there will a second round on September ¶8. Most observers seem to think he can wrap it all up on July 8. In any event, Indonesia's second direct presidential election is expected to be largely free, fair and peaceful despite the dark warnings made by the Megawati and Kalla camps. Mission observation teams are traveling to key regions, such as Aceh and Papua. HUME