SISLI MAYOR SARIGUL BROADENING ELECTORAL BASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISTANBUL 000429 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU SUBJECT: SISLI MAYOR SARIGUL BROADENING ELECTORAL BASE AHEAD OF PARTY LAUNCH REF: A. ISTANBUL 118 ¶B. ISTANBUL 151 ¶C. ISTANBUL 405 Classified By: Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Mustafa Sarigul, mayor of Istanbul's Sisli District, remains on track to launch his political party, the Turkey Change Movement (Turkiye Degisim Hareketi, or TDH),in January 2010 and will make a bid to oust Prime Minister Erdogan in the 2011 election. In separate, recent meetings with Poloffs, Sarigul and his Deputy for Foreign Relations outlined TDH's campaign outreach Strategy -- which includes a visit to Washington this December -- and platform, pushing a Western-leaning foreign policy and liberal domestic agenda in presentations designed to appeal to a U.S. audience. Contacts in Istanbul political circles are divided on Sarigul's prospects for the election, with supporters touting his charisma and broad appeal, and detractors dismissing him as an Istanbul-centric liberal who will only serve to divide the Republican People's Party (CHP) voter base. Additionally, Sarigul's reputation in some circles as a lewd, flamboyant womanizer may become a political vulnerability. Most observers agree, however, that Sarigul is a savvy political operator, and his aggressive campaign is embracing technology and attracting diverse support. LET'S GET THIS PARTY STARTED ¶2. (SBU) Zeynep Dereli, TDH Deputy for Foreign Relations, confirmed that the "Movement" will officially launch as a "party" in either the second or third week of January 2010 (weather depending). Despite the upcoming plans, Dereli said that TDH will probably remain a "Movement," at least in name, to capture Sarigul's progressive agenda. TDH has procured a headquarters office in Ankara and plans to move operations there after the January announcement. Local chairmen have been selected in 80 of Turkey's provinces, and the leadership is in the process of selecting a chairman for the remaining province in the Southeast, Mardin. Sarigul, who toldPoloffs that his slogan is "Knock on every door, shake every hand," has traveled all over the country to rally support for his election bid -- he is headed to Batman on November 14 -- and his associates point to a recent Genar poll that shows Sarigul's national support at over 30 percent. (Comment: Genar Polling is owned by a relative of Prime Minister �00A;Erdogan and known to be linked to the ruling party. It is plausible that this type of polling is being used to undermine the CHP by exaggerating Sarigul's support base. Another recent poll, released in October by the Center for Social Research, showed support for Sarigul at 15.6 percent, still a relatively high number. End Comment.) Dereli said that TDH is preparing for elections to be held at the earliest in August 2010, although she predicted that spring 2011 would be a more realistic date. She said that on November 20 Sarigul will travel to Ankara to attend a breakfast with EU Ambassadors to Turkey. (He hosted his annual holiday lunch for Istanbul Consuls General for EU and other countries November 12.) Dereli also is organizing an early December visit to Washington -- timed to coincide with Erdogan's December7 visit -- along with two new TDH deputies, former Foreign Minister Hikmet Cetin and former Ambassador to the U.S. Faruk Logoglu. DEVELOPING THE PLATFORM ¶3. (SBU) Sarigul's platform is an amalgamation of Western-leaning foreign policy, liberal domestic policy, and free market economics. In an October meeting with Poloffs, Sarigul focused his presentation on his support for Western ideals, including democracy, human rights, secularism and "contemporary values." The TDH has a stated objective of achieving the minimum EU membership requirements "not just to join the EU, but for Turks," and to promote gender equality and free universal education. Literature provided by TDH representatives also outlines judicial reform, removal of bureaucratic barriers to entrepreneurship, and increased access to social security and healthcare for Turkish citizens as among the movement's political goals. Dereli outlined three foreign policy "benchmarks" for TDH: NATO, EU membership, and relations with Israel, the latter being a theme of Sarigul's presentations to us. ¶4. (SBU) Asked about TDH's stance on the Government's ISTANBUL 00000429 002 OF 004 "democratic opening" to the Kurds, Dereli said that the democratic opening is being used by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) as part of an election campaign. (Comment: presumably to attract Kurdish votes. End Comment.) Although in principle TDH supports reconciliation, they view the process as mismanaged and poorly communicated and suggest that the AKP should have organized it more transparently, for example by releasing timelines to the media. Minority rights -- and decentralization to promote this -- appear to feature largely in the TDH platform. However, Dereli was careful to mention that since "minority" is a loaded word in Turkey, the movement is still trying to figure out how to phrase their positions on these issues. Non-Muslims feature among the movement's founding members, including several Kurds, an Armenian, and a Jew. TDH FOUNDING MEMBERS ¶5. (SBU) Dereli proudly told Poloffs that former Foreign Minister Hikmet Cetin and former Turkish Ambassador to the U.S. Faruk Logoglu have joined the movement as "founding members," adding their names to a growing list of deputies.(Comment: Logoglu, also a former director of ASAM think tank in Ankara, is known for his staunch statism and may attract CHP voters. End Comment.)Other founding members include: - Yuksel Yalova, former Member of Parliament and Minister of State - Zeynep Dereli, former oil trader (worked for Shell), investment banker and "social entrepreneur" - Inal Batu, former Member of Parliament and Ambassador - Affan Kececi, former head of Police, Football Federation Vice President - Onur Kumbaracibasi, former Member of Parliament and Minister of Public Works - Elif Ulug, teaching assistant at Bosphorous University (Turkish Language Department) - Duygu Erten, teaching assistant at Sabanci University (Civil Society Department) and former Director of the Clinton Climate Initiative in Istanbul Aside from organizational and representational duties, these founding members also seem responsible for some financing of the Movement; Dereli said that due to potential scrutiny over sources of funding, they are all chipping in for campaign-related expenses. As an example, these deputies shared the cost of the Movement's new headquarters in Ankara, and their names are all on the deed. Dereli herself is a thirty-something Princeton graduate with a Masters degree from London's School of Oriental and African Studies; she originally joined the AKP in order to run in municipal elections and now has attached herself to Sarigul's movement with the hope, she said, of gaining experience in international relations. SOCIAL NETWORKING: "FIND US ON FACEBOOK" ¶6. (SBU) In line with its efforts to promote youth activism and outreach, TDH has launched an aggressive social networking campaign targeting Turkey's Internet-savvy urban youth. TDH's official website (www.degisimhareketi.org) is a flashy tribute to Sarigul. The Movement plans to launch a weekly "youth meeting" via webcast and to invite guest speakers on a variety of political and economic topics to address interested virtual viewers. Aside from Facebook (Dereli reminded Poloffs that Turkey is the third largest market for Facebook),TDH is active on Twitter and with SMS texting, both useful tools for attracting participation in their ever-growing political rallies. (Note: More cynical observers suggest that promise of a daily wage is another strong factor in attracting participation to the rallies. End note.) SUPPORTERS OF SARIGUL: "PEOPLE WANT TO TOUCH HIM" ¶7. (C) In a meeting with the Consul General late last month, Ari Movement leader Kemal Koprulu -- whose organization has endorsed the TDH -- commented that Sarigul is the only candidate on the political scene who is doing something "new and improved." He said that Sarigul, with whom he disagrees politically, is nonetheless a charismatic, colorful personality who "fills the room" and has a style similar to Erdogan's. Koprulu's contacts have noted that in Anatolia, he is so popular that when he makes public appearances ISTANBUL 00000429 003.2 OF 004 "people want to touch him." AQording to Koprulu, Sarigul has a "conservative look" that is appealing to a wide voter base, and Koprulu predicted that Sarigul will be able to pass the 10 percent threshold and that he could get 1.5 million votes in Istanbul alone. Koprulu said that if Sarigul passes the 10 percent threshold in the election, he "will be viewed as the new chairman of the CHP." In this scenario, according to Koprulu, Sarigul might be able to cut a deal with CHP leader Deniz Baykal that takes advantage of Baykal's presidential ambitions, wherein Baykal wouldQecome President and Sarigul could become head of a new merged CHP-TDH party. A MORE CRITICAL TAKE: SPLITTING THE OPPOSITION VOTE ¶8. (C) Koprulu aside, many contacts in Istanbul dismiss Sarigul's movement as a distraction and view TDH as damaging its own interests by dividing the CHP's electoral base. Respected pollstQ Adil Gur told Poloffs late last month that while Sarigul is an "Erdogan-style" politician with the potential to draw support from less-educated, low income voters, his image is tarnished by his circle of advisors, who are perceived as anti-Baykal former CHPers. Gur believes that the CHP electorate will not support him out of fear of dividing votes and strengthening the AKP. Journalist Mustafa Aykol, an energetic observer of Turkish politics, said that Sarigul will not be able to steal votes from the AKP, so if he becomes a phenomenon, he will split the CHP vote. Even Koprulu, whose organization officially has endorsed Sarigul, said that in a worst-case scenario for Sarigul, he would get around 7 percent of the vote, bringing the CHP under 20 percent. TDH Deputy Dereli admitted that this is a frequent refrain from TDH critics, including the CHP. She said that the CHP is publicly criticizing TDH as a divisive movement that will help bump up the "fundamentalist" vote, but that current polls show that TDH is pulling votes from "everyone" and they are specifically targeting lower-income voters who may be critical of the AKP for its cronyism since coming to power. BIOGRAPHIC NOTE ¶9. (C) Sarigul, Sisli's popular third term mayor, is infamous among the Public Affairs LES in Istanbul for his 2004 International Visitor (IV) Program trip to the United States, when he offended countless U.S. officials with over-the-top arrogance and generally lewd, inappropriate, womanizing behavior. Very upset over what he considered second-tier accommodation during the visit, he commented "screw the State Department!," blaming perceived career setbacks on his association with the U.S. Government. His legendary trip, which included stops in Miami and San Francisco, prompted delivery of a strongly-worded memo from Washington describing his scandals, which sits in a Public Affairs file here. ¶10. (C) Comment. At a meeting he requested with Consulate officers last month, Sarigul wheeled out a well-orchestrated presentation aimed at convincing the audience that his candidacy would fall squarely in line with Western interests, and his upcoming meetings with EU Ambassadors and the visit of his deputies to Washington presumably are designed to do the same. TDH clearly is directing its effort at impressing U.S. interlocutors with English-language power point presentations and campaign-related material. This is all the more interesting considering Sarigul's criticism of the U.S. during the IV Program visits just five years ago. ¶11. (C) Comment (con't). Sarigul, regarded by most as a savvy political actor, appears to be working to overcome the perception that he is a left-wing politician. Several observers have commented that he is appealing to a conservative, more religious base, although his platform still reflects a liberal worldview and his cadre of advisors is reportedly dominated by former CHP members. He also is attempting to gain a potentially important swing constituency, the secularist, liberal voters who quietly voted for AKP in recent elections but are not entirely comfortable with AKP or current alternatives. His well-organized campaign appears to have a good handle on public relations and integration of technology, though this is unlikely to have a huge impact outside of youth urban circles. If his reputation for vulgar behavior extends beyond U.S. Government circles, it could become a political vulnerability. (Egemen Bagis's recent reference to Sarigul's weaknesses, well-known to the U.S. State Department, suggests this is the case.) It remains unclear whether Sarigul will be ISTANBUL 00000429 004.2 OF 004 able to translate his popularity in Istanbul's Sisli District-- with a voter base that is 17 percent non-Muslim and home to the country's largest Armenian neighborhood--onto the national scene, but his aggressive schedule of campaign rallies and travel certainly are aimed at addressing these issues. End Comment. WIENER