EUR/SE DEPUTY DIRECTOR BRINK IN ISTANBUL MEETINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000017 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018 TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL TU EINV IR AA SUBJECT: EUR/SE DEPUTY DIRECTOR BRINK IN ISTANBUL MEETINGS REF: ISTANBUL 493 ISTANBUL 00000017 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) Summary. On December 18, EUR/SE Deputy Director Bridget Brink ended a week-long visit to Turkey by meeting with officials of the Turkish business association MUSIAD, the press relations officer of the Ecumenical Patriarchate, and prominent newspaper columnists. The overall theme of the conversations included how to re-energize U.S.-Turkish relations. Brink suggested to both the business leaders and the columnists that normalizing relations with Armenia would be a positive step toward that end. Brink also emphasized to the Ecumenical Patriarchate that the U.S. Government would continue to press the Turkish Government to open the Halki Seminary as an important part of our efforts to promote religious freedom and human rights in Turkey. End summary. -------------- MUSIAD -------------- ¶2. (U) While MUSIAD representatives normally avoid discussing with us politically-sensitive subjects, in this meeting its chairman, Omer Vardan, was quite forthcoming with opinions on Turkey's relationships with its neighbors, the global economic crisis, and the AGR. ¶3. (U) Neighbors: According to Vardan, the policy of "Strategic Depth" that Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) began to implement several years ago has resulted in greatly improved relations with Turkey's neighbors. As proof, Vardan said, in the past several years Turkey's exports to surrounding countries had increased from 36 billion USD to 136 billion USD. (Comment: This number appears inflated. According to press reports, Trade Minister Kursad Tuzmen recently announced that while Turkey's total exports to all countries in 2008 had been projected to be 136 billion USD, the global economic crisis had reduced them to 131.4 billion USD. End Comment.) Many of MUSIAD's members are currently working in Northern Iraq, and MUSIAD is actively seeking to expand Turkey's involvement in the reconstruction of Iraq. ¶4. (C) AGR: Brink noted the chances of passage of the AGR this April may be higher, and urged MUSIAD to tell the GOT it supports the normalization of relations with Armenia. Vardan said while MUSIAD supports the GOT's dialog with Armenia, there is also an "Azerbaijani angle" that needs to be straightened out (i.e., Nagorno-Karabakh). Brink urged Turkey not to link normalization to resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, since Nagorno-Karabakh may not be resolved before April. Vardan said it would be "very bad" for relations if the AGR passed, and expressed the hope (shared with us by other Turks and apparently widely-held) that the support for AGR expressed by President-Elect Obama during the campaign would not continue once he begins governing and assesses the positives and negatives of such an action. "We trust that the president can stop the AGR," he said. Brink replied that the position that will be taken will be up to the new administration but noted that Congress is a separate but equal branch of government. Vardan said MUSIAD would convey Brink's points to the "responsible people." ¶5. (U) Economy: Vardan said Turkish business is "suffering," with reductions of between 10 percent and 75 percent, depending on the sector. Vardan noted Turkey does not have the structural difficulties of Europe or the U.S., since its banking system is "very sound" and there is little consumer credit -- Turkish banks extend few home mortgages and the average consumer credit card debt is but 30 percent of yearly wages. (Comment: A quick Internet search indicates that average U.S. family's credit card debt equals from five to twelve percent of its annual income. End Comment.) However, Vardan claimed Turkish businesses are experiencing "major problems" in obtaining project financing from the world markets, since most foreign banks are not lending. Moreover, said Vardan, banks are calling loans "prematurely." Vardan explained that, in Turkey, post-dated checks are a common form of financing, and are freely negotiated and given to banks as security. However, now banks are insisting on cashing them, despite their future dating. (Comment: In Turkey, unlike the U.S., a post-dated check remains a demand ISTANBUL 00000017 002.2 OF 003 instrument, and is normally not cashed as a matter of custom; however, a holder is under no obligation to observe this custom.) -------------- Patriarchate -------------- ¶6. (U) The Ecumenical Patriarchate's press relations officer, Father Dositheos, opened his presentation with some "good news": The GOT has advised the Patriarchate it will begin issuing one year visas for non-Turkish clergy working at the Patriarchate. Previously, foreign clergy had to obtain tourist visas and exit the country for renewal every three months. The GOT provided a list of clergy eligible for the extended visas, and noted they must be working in the Ecumenical Patriarchate to qualify. This "positive gesture" comes after what Dositheos described as "five years of struggle" with the GOT. ¶7. (U) Unfortunately, Father Dositheos continued, there had been no progress on the Patriarchate's remaining problems with the GOT: -- The GOT recently advised the Patriarchate that reopening Halki Seminary was "impossible," since Turkey is a secular country and cannot have theological schools. (If this is indeed the GOT's stance, it ignores the thousands of imam-hatip religious secondary schools run by the GOT.) In this communique the GOT supposedly renewed its offer to establish a chair in Orthodox theology at a state university, which the Patriarchate rejects. (Note: We subsequently clarified that Father Dositheos was referring to press reporting on a to date unreleased MFA report to the parliament and not to any communique to the Ecumenical Patriarchate. End note.) -- The absence of legal status for the Patriarchate, making it impossible for it to own property or have "economic independence." -- The refusal of the GOT to recognize the Patriarchate's "ecumenical" status. -- Repatriation of Patriarchate properties seized by the state since the founding of the Republic. Father Dositheos claimed that in 1913 the Patriarchate owned 11,000 properties, while today it owns but 500. While Father Dositheos said this issue is "slowly being resolved," he anticipates the need for further relief from the European Court of Human Rights. -- Synod Assemblies (Ref). ¶8. (C) Brink asked Father Dositheos how the U.S. could help. He responded that direct political pressure "does not help." Rather, he suggested two indirect means of providing pressure: -- Have American military generals convey to their Turkish NATO counterparts the message that the Patriarchate is not a danger to Turkey. (Father Dositheos believes the Turkish military is the source of much of the opposition to the Patriarchate. He said he has asked German NATO generals to convey the same message.) -- Have U.S. theology schools request Ministry of Education permission to form a "partnership" with the Halki Seminary. This will show that the Seminary is important to Americans. ¶9. Brink said she would take these ideas back to Washington and stressed that the U.S. would continue to do all it could to support the reopening of Halki. -------------- Columnists -------------- ¶10. (C) At a luncheon hosted by the Consul General, Brink met with Abdulhamit Bilici (of Zaman newspaper),Rusen Cakir (Vatan),Sami Kohen (Milliyet) and Etyen Mahcupyan (Agos). The AGR was again a major topic of conversation, with the Consul General and Brink reprising the points made to MUSIAD, including the importance of concluding a normalization agreement with Armenia. The Turkish guests suggested Turkey ISTANBUL 00000017 003.2 OF 003 would be an ideal location for President-Elect Obama to give his promised speech in a Muslim capital, particularly if the AGR passed, since the speech could then be used to move the issue forward. Also, the columnists noted the widespread public perception that the U.S. is still not doing enough with respect to the PKK. The CG and Brink pointed to the change in policy after PM Erdogan's November 2007 visit to Washington including the start of intelligence sharing with Turkey as historic and significant cooperation, which some believe is not acknowledged enough publicly in Turkey. Wiener