AZAD JAMMU AND KASHMIR LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY VOTES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000067

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PK
SUBJECT: AZAD JAMMU AND KASHMIR LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY VOTES
OUT PRIME MINISTER

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (SBU) Summary: While the rest of the world focused on the
aftermath of the Mumbai attacks, there was a quiet change of
government in the semi-independent area of
Pakistan-controlled Kashmir--known as Azad (free) Jammu and
Kashmir (AJK). On January 6, the AJK Legislative Assembly
approved a no-confidence motion against Muslim Conference
(MC) leader and AJK Prime Minister Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan.
Thirty-one of the 46 members present in the assembly
approved the no-confidence vote and chose to replace him with
rising MC leader, Sardar Mohammad Yaqoob Khan. Commentators
are debating the extent of Islamabad interference in a
process that ousted Khan, who had been repeatedly criticized
for corruption and poor governance. The end result, however,
is a fractious and divided government in AJK that will likely
be more susceptible to defeat by the Pakistan People's Party
(PPP) in the next election. Whether it will be more
cooperative in efforts to shut down
Lakshar-e-Taiba/Jamaat-ud-Dawa activities in AJK remains to
be seen. End Summary.

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Sardar Attique's Ouster
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2. (SBU) On January 6, the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK)
Legislative Assembly approved a vote of no-confidence against
Prime Minister Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan after accusing him
of mismanagement, corruption, and harming the Muslim
Conference (MC) party through his support for former
President Musharraf's four-point formula for Kashmir. This
formula abandoned Pakistan's longstanding demand for a
plebiscite on Kashmir and supported greater autonomy, but not
independence for Kashmir. The opposition also alleged that
Musharraf propped up Sardar Attique as his proxy in AJK.
Sardar Yaqoob Khan was sworn in as the eighth prime minister
of AJK after the no-confidence motion was supported by 31 of
the 46 members present in the Assembly.


3. (SBU) Journalists told POL FSN that many AJK ministers and
legislators were angry with Sardar Attique's style of
governance and these ministers and legislators used the
no-confidence vote as retribution.

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Governance Structure
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4. (SBU) The portion of Kashmir that has been under
Pakistan's control since partition in 1947, AJK, is
constitutionally a self governing, independent state, not
technically part of Pakistan. The AJK government provides
Pakistan-administered Kashmir a veneer of democracy and
governance infrastructure, but in reality, all major
decisions on Kashmir are made in Islamabad by the
Islamabad-based Kashmir Council. The Pakistani Prime Minister
sits as the chairman of the Council; the AJK President is the
vice-chairman. The Council consists of nine members, five of
whom are appointed by the Pakistani Prime Minister, and four
who are selected by the AJK legislative assembly.


5. (SBU) The AJK legislative assembly addresses local
economic, infrastructure, and social issues and is comprised
of forty-nine seats. Forty-one legislators are directly
elected, and out of these forty-one, there is a quota of
twelve seats for Kashmiri refugees living in Pakistan. After
the legislative assembly is elected, eight more seats will be
indirectly elected. The eight seats are broken down into five
seats for women, one for an Islamic scholar, one for a
technocrat, and one to represent Kashmiris residing overseas.
The body and leadership of the Assembly are required to take
an oath to support Kashmir's accession to Pakistan.

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AJK Politics
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6. (SBU) Elections in AJK were first held in 1975, after then
Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto established a
branch of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in AJK. When

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General Zia ul-Haq imposed martial law in Pakistan in 1977,
the AJK Legislative Assembly was dissolved and General Hayat
Khan was appointed as the Chief Executive. Hayat served
until elections were held in 1985, when Sardar Abdul Qayyum
Khan was elected the President and Sardar Sikandar Hayat was
chosen as the Prime Minister.


7. (SBU) Two major political parties operating in AJK are
the Pakistan People's Party-AJK (PPP- AJK) and the Muslim
Conference (MC),which is ideologically linked to the
Pakistan Muslim League. Both parties have taken turns
holding the majority of seats in the legislative assembly as
well as the positions of prime minister and president. MC
led the government from 1985-90, and the PPP- AJK took over
in 1990. MC again took the lead in the 1991 elections and
ruled until 1996. PPP- AJK returned to power in 1996 until
the MC regained the majority in 2001. Both Sardar Attique
and Sardar Yaqoob belong to the MC.


8. (C) Comment: Even as elements of the Muslim Conference,
instrumental in orchestrating the no-confidence vote against
Attique, claim that the federal government played no part in
his ouster, commentators in Muzaffarabad believe
the entire move was orchestrated by Islamabad. The Pakistan
Muslim League-Nawaz ceased supporting Attique because he
supported Musharraf. The PPP in Islamabad did not trust him
since he was ideologically aligned with Nawaz. Nawaz's
support for Sardar Yaqoob's faction of the MC has left the
Conference divided. The end result is a fractious and
divided AJK government, one that will likely be more
susceptible to defeat by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in
the next election. End Comment.
PATTERSON