LONG MARCH ROUND UP AS OF 1700 LOCAL TIME, MARCH 15

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000551

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PK
SUBJECT: LONG MARCH ROUND UP AS OF 1700 LOCAL TIME, MARCH 15

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Citing fears for his safety, the GOP placed
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif
under a restraining order early in the day, but backed off to
allow him to address the crowds - estimated at 70 - 80,000.
Ambassador spoke to Interior Minister Rehman Malik, Prime
Minister Gilani, President Zardari and Nawaz and Shahbaz
Sharif about USG concerns for Nawaz's safety. Kites and
tear gas mingled in the AIR in Lahore as the city held Basant
celebrations, even while protesters gathered in GPO Chowk.
SMS and Blackberry service has been disrupted throughout the
country, but the anticipated cut-off of all cell phone
services has not yet occurred.

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Islamabad
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2. (SBU) The capital area remained quiet March 15, although
local staff have not been able to enter Islamabad from
Rawalpindi. AIR travel in and out of Islamabad continued
through morning, but the main routes from the airport to
downtown Islamabad have been blocked by security forces.
Security around government buildings and in the diplomatic
enclave has been enhanced and the GOP has cut off SMS service
on mobile phones.


3. (C) Ambassador and PO Lahore had numerous conversations
with Interior Minister Rehman Malik, Governor Taseer, PM
Gilani and the Sharifs during the day on March 15,
underscoring USG concern for the safety of Nawaz Sharif.
Malik had raised GOP concerns about Nawaz's safety and
reported that two suicide bombers had been intercepted the
night before as they tried to make their way into Islamabad.


4. (C) Prime Minster Gilani told Ambassador in a midday
conversation that he is moving forward with reconciliation
efforts, but that he believes the need to appeal to their
constituency will prevent the Sharifs from making an
announcement of reconciliation until after the long march.

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Punjab
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5. (SBU) After police put Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif under
restraining orders (vice house arrest) that allowed them to
go no further than 50 meters from their place of detention,
both brothers managed to elude police. Shahbaz left for
Islamabad and remains in an "undisclosed" location in
Rawalpindi. Nawaz emerged from his Model Town residence in
early afternoon in a slow-moving motorcade en route to a
speech at the Lahore High Court. As of this writing, he has
not reached the speech venue. The police backed off to avoid
further violence. There are reports PML-N supporters have
moved the buses, tractors and containers that blocked the
Lahore-Islamabad highway. Unless police or Rangers stop his
progress, Nawaz is expected to arrive at GPO Chowk by 1800L,
when he will address the marchers. When and how (or if) he
will lead the march to Islamabad is unknown.


6. (SBU) GPO Chowk in front of the Lahore High Court has
seen the largest clash between the demonstrators and police,
who after throwing tear gas, moved barriers back to give the
marchers more room. Political party workers seemed to
outnumber attorneys, based on news footage.


7. (SBU) High-level arrests included former Supreme Court
Bar Association president Aitzaz Ahsan (who, following
Nawaz's example, has left his house) and, in Islamabad, Javed
Hashmi. Many PML-N leaders formerly detained, such as Sardar
Khosa, now accompany Nawaz in his motorcade. Tehrek-e-Insaf
leader Imran Khan is in hiding.

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Sindh
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8. (C) PML-N Additional Secretary for Information Sardar
Abdul Rahim, who is now in Islamabad, told Post that most
attorneys and PML-N supporters from Sindh (he estimated
around 3,000 from Karachi alone) who planned to join the long
march were already in Lahore and Islamabad. However, former

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Sindh Pakistan People's Party (PPP) General Secretary Nafis
Siddiqui estimated that only 100-150 Karachi attorneys
managed to evade police and reach Islamabad and Lahore. He
did not have an idea of the total number of supporters from
Sindh participating in the lawyers' long march. An official
at the Karachi Bar Association refused to give Post any
estimate of participants from Sindh. (Comment: Post has no
way of verifying the number of participants from Sindh, but
suspects that Rahim may be exaggerating his estimates. End
comment.)


9. (C) Sindh Senior Minister Pir Mazhar-ul-Haq said the PPP
had decided to cancel a planned anti-long march rally
scheduled for March 15 in the northern Sindh city of Sukkur.
According to Haq, PPP leaders came to the conclusion that
granting themselves a waiver to section 144 for the event
would look hypocritical in light of current events.


10. (C) Rahim opined that all parties should defer the issue
over the Sharifs to Parliament for resolution. Haq told post
that he suggested to Shahbaz Sharif a few days ago that all
political parties should work to repeal the 17th amendment
and make Parliament the supreme governing body of Pakistan.
According to Haq, Shahbaz Sharif said former Chief Justice
Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry had to be restored first. Both
Haq and Rahim said the turmoil was benefiting extremists by
giving them the opportunity to move into the power vacuum.


11. (C) Supreme Court Bar Association President Ali Ahmed
Kurd told Post that he planned to try to fly to Islamabad on
a 4:40 p.m. flight to join the march. If PIA officials again
denied him a boarding pass, he planned to stage a
demonstration in Quetta. (According to press reports, Kurd
was permitted to board but the flight has been denied
permission to depart Quetta.)

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NWFP
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12. (SBU) No demonstrations or other long march related
activities occurred in Peshawar in the last 24 hours. The
road between Peshawar and Islamabad has been closed in
several locations, including one which prevented the
Consulate FSN staff from coming to work.

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Military
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13. (C) Pakistan Army units received warning orders to be
prepared to offer assistance to civil authorities. The
independent 111 Brigade and 16 Division are on high alert, as
is one brigade per Army Corps. If ordered into action, the
Army units will augment the police and paramilitary forces to
help re-establish law and order, however none have yet been
ordered to execute this mission.


14. (C) An attach from a NATO ally drove around Islamabad
this morning and looked at areas historically used as staging
areas by the Army, specifically the area adjacent to Jinnah
Stadium. He observed no unusual activity. The attach
assessed that law enforcement, including the police, Frontier
Constabulary and Punjab rangers, are deployed well outside of
the city on the major approaches.


PATTERSON