PUNJAB GOVERNOR TASEER: A FIZZLE FROM A BANG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000528 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR PK SUBJECT: PUNJAB GOVERNOR TASEER: A FIZZLE FROM A BANG REF: ISLAMABAD 516 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On March 12, Ambassador met in Islamabad with Punjab Governor Salman Taseer, whose jurisdiction extends to the federal capital's border. Taseer was adamant that opposition protesters would not be allowed into Islamabad but committed that arrested organizers would be released as soon as the march/sit-in dates passed. Parties' and lawyers' leaders would not be arrested, and the media would not be curbed in covering events. Roads leading to Islamabad, and even Punjab province, would be blocked. Taseer revealed that today's unopposed election of Pakistan Muslim League (PML) Senator Jan Mohammad Jamali as Deputy Chairman of the Senate was part of a larger deal with his ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP). Details of the full deal would be announced in the next few days and would, Taseer hoped, diminish turnout for the march/sit-in. Taseer promised that as soon as any party had a majority in Punjab, he would call a session at which a new Chief Minister would be elected; until then, his actions under "governor's rule" had been completely within constitutional and historical norms. Taseer requested that the USG use its "good offices" with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to convince them to accept the Rawalpindi parade grounds outside the capital as an alternate site for the sit-in. End summary. Drawing a Line - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met March 12 in Islamabad with Punjab Governor Salman Taseer about the government's plans to control the lawyers' "long march" and planned sit-in at the capital. Lawyers, opposition political party workers and civil society activists have started their numerous motorcades from Sindh and Balochistan provinces; they hope to build in strength as they pass through Punjab. They should arrive on Islamabad's outskirts March 16 and have committed to stay until the GOP restores all of the judges deposed on November 3, 2007, by then President Pervez Musharraf. ¶3. (C) Taseer blamed Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz's (PML-N) leaders Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif for fabricating a crisis. He explained that when the Supreme Court ruled February 25 against then Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, resulting in his removal from office, there were only two constitutional responses: "governor's rule" or suspension of the Punjab Provincial Assembly. He noted that his ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) had allowed PML-N supporters to demonstrate against the ruling and had not ordered any arrests at that point. The PPP-led GOP had also offered to file a review petition with the Court; the Sharifs categorically refused, Taseer noted. ¶4. (C) But the Sharifs were threatening insurrection, he argued, calling on civil servants and law enforcement to disobey orders. In this context, and adding he feared terrorists might attack such large crowds, the police had been ordered to detain (mostly by house arrest) opposition organizers and to block routes to the capital. They would all be released after the march/sit-in blew over, he promised. Taseer claimed he specifically ordered that political parties' and lawyers' leaders, as well as the elected members of national and provincial parliaments, would not be arrested. He assured the Ambassador this order included the PML-N's Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif and the lawyers' Aitzaz Ahsan and Ahmad Kurd. (Note: Media is reporting late March 12 that the Sindh government has issued an arrest warrant for Kurd.) PML-N chairman Zafar-ul-Haq, and a couple of civil society leaders, had been "mistakenly arrested," he said, and immediately released upon his personal orders. ¶5. (C) Taseer committed to keeping all demonstrators out of Islamabad; vehicular traffic would be stopped starting March ¶15. Protesters would not be allowed to sit indefinitely in front of the presidential palace and parliament. The various opposition groups had refused the GOP's offer of the parade grounds just outside the capital (in Rawalpindi),he noted. The police, supplemented by Pakistan Army Rangers and Frontier Constabulary, would use minimum force to stop the marchers from entering the capital, but, if provoked, would not hesitate to use tear gas or baton charge. They could ISLAMABAD 00000528 002 OF 002 demonstrate, peacefully, anywhere else, noting the Sharifs' rallies in the last week. Taseer further committed that media would not be restricted from covering events, but lamented that the opposition was playing to the cameras; "What do they want, a blood bath?" he asked. Despite the incendiary images, Taseer was confident "this will pass." ¶6. (C) "The PPP is the biggest stakeholder in democracy," Taseer wanted to assure the USG. He requested we use "our good offices" with the PML-N to convince them to sit-in at the parade ground instead. Taseer believed the Sharifs' real aim was clear -- cause enough chaos to prompt the international community (or the Pakistan Army) to press for mid-term elections. Making Deals for the Punjab - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Taseer revealed that he had come to Islamabad to ensure a deal between the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML). The first step was completed March 12, with the unopposed election of PPP Law Minister Farooq Naek as new Senate Chairman and of PML senator Jan Mohammad Jamali as Deputy Chairman. Naek will need to resign as Law Minister, but will become acting president during any absence of Zardari, Taseer informed. He was confident a "good package" for the PML would be concluded and announced in days, hopefully before the March 16 sit-in. While the PML would be denied the Punjab Chief Minister slot, they would receive other influential ministries at the national and provincial levels, and not just in Punjab, but also in some of the other three provincial governments. ¶8. (C) Taseer committed to lift "governor's rule" as soon as the PPP, PML-N or PML publicly asked for a session to be convened; constitutionally, that session's first order of business would be to elect a new Chief Minister. Consequently, all parties were still negotiating because none had a majority. And while he believed the PPP would lead Pakistan's largest province for the first time since Zulfikhar Ali Bhutto's days, he said the party would be fine with sitting in the opposition too. The few PPP provincial ministers had been shut out of government by the Sharifs anyway, Taseer complained. ¶9. (C) Comment: Taseer was confident that the PPP's show of political strength -- forming a government in Punjab and standing firm against PML-N threats -- would translate into a fizzled march/sit-in. However, he was at a loss to explain how his government would get to that end-state if violence energizes the crowds. He is calculating the PPP's control of governmental levers will outlast the lawyers' fervor and the Sharifs' ability to deliver street support. End comment. PATTERSON