PML-N: "WE WON'T BE FOOLED AGAIN."

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000508 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR PK SUBJECT: PML-N: "WE WON'T BE FOOLED AGAIN." REF: A. ISLAMABAD 495 ¶B. LAHORE 41 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) reached out March 9 to the diplomatic corps; the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)-led government made its case to the same group on February 28. PML-N leader Shahbaz Sharif, meeting with the Ambassador late March 9, reiterated the party's position -- President Asif Zardari had created an unnecessary political crisis, and it was up to him to compromise. Shahbaz demanded an end to governor's rule in Punjab and reversal of the Sharifs' disqualification; PML-N leaders told the diplomatic corps that a shift in power from the President to the parliament was also required along with full restoration of the judiciary. PML-N leaders expected to be put under house arrest soon and for the roads leading to the capital to be closed over the weekend; a clash with the police would be unavoidable. PML-N clearly believes the next move is up to Zardari. The PML-N and Shahbaz Sharif talked about the possibility of an "guarantor" for any deal with Zardari. We can see the outlines of a compromise, based on a package that includes judicial/parliamentary reversal of the disqualification and an end to governor's rule in Punjab, but convincing the parties to agree before the lawyers' march appears increasingly unlikely. See septels for Ambassador's recent discussions with Zardari, Chief of Army Staff General Kayani and PM Gilani. End summary. Gearing Up - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) president Shahbaz Sharif met March 9 with the Ambassador; party chairman Zafar-ul-Haq and spokesperson Ahsan Iqbal met separately the same day with select diplomatic missions. These PML-N leaders unequivocally committed their party to the lawyers' "long march" set to begin on March 12 in Karachi. They added that the demonstration in front of the federal parliament in Islamabad, scheduled for March 16, would last until all of the deposed judges were restored to the bench. The party has arranged for five days of provisions. ¶3. (C) Despite previous statements by ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leaders, ul-Haq expected the GOP to block routes leading to the capital. He and Iqbal also predicted the government would start as early as March 10 to place party leaders under house arrest, including possibly the Sharifs. Iqbal believed that 20,000 lawyers, PML-N and religious party workers, and civil society activists could still be organized despite the "maintenance of public order" restrictions. Arrested leaders would attempt to leave their homes, Iqbal promised, and the crowd would march toward the capital until stopped. "If a situation is created, it will be the fault of the government," said Iqbal. PML-N leaders shrugged at the likelihood of clashes with police. Looking for a Guarantor - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) President Asif Zardari has broken numerous agreements in the past year between his PPP and the PML-N, according to ul-Haq, and he requested that the diplomatic corps pressure Zardari "to honor the PPP's previous commitments." The PML-N remained consistent, Iqbal added, demanding: (1) full restoration of the judiciary; (2) the constitutional transfer of powers from the President to the parliament; and (3) allowing the Sharifs to run for public office. Nawaz had guaranteed Zardari a full five-year term, Iqbal claimed, if the PPP would just follow through on the first two issues; delivering on the third issue would be considered a confidence building measure. Ul-Haq added, if Shahbaz had been left in office, the lawyers' march "could have been worked out." ¶5. (C) Even now, the PML-N was open to overtures by several arbiters, but all had failed -- first Balochistan's Chief Minister Raisani and then the coalition's Awami National Party (ANP) leader Asfundyar Wali Khan with Jamiat ISLAMABAD 00000508 002 OF 003 Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) leader Fazlur Rehman. "None of them came with anything to put on the table," Iqbal revealed. Zardari's offer to reinstate a few more deposed judges, but not former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, was a non-starter, he concluded. The march/sit-in included the lawyers, several other political parties and civil society groups, so the PML-N could not trade it away. The real problem, Iqbal acknowledged to PolOff, was the lack of a guarantor of any future PPP/PML-N deal. Head Count - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Ul-Haq was adamant that, upon Shahbaz Sharif's removal as Punjab chief minister, the PML-N could have immediately shown a working majority in the Punjab Assembly. The party had wooed 35 of the Pakistan Muslim League's (PML) 80-some provincial parliamentarians, ul-Haq bragged. In contrast, the PPP would need all of the PML legislators on board to be able to form the next Punjab government; because they could not count on all of the PML, the PPP was "trying to buy" PML-N legislators. Privately, Iqbal admitted that some in his party might abandon Shahbaz's cause "for a golden handshake," but most had their long-term political futures to worry about, and that future was with the PML-N. Getting Serious - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Iqbal blamed Zardari for the rise in extremism throughout Pakistan. Zardari could have solved the country's economic and security crises by keeping the PML-N in the federal coalition, but "he preferred to play the power game," Iqbal charged. He noted that both the current Chief Justice and Chief Election Commissioner should retire this month. Yet Zardari would again break his promise to consult with all parties regarding their successors, Iqbal asserted. Iqbal made his case: the international community needed regional stability; only a democratic Pakistan could contribute to that stability; only if Pakistanis believed in the rule of law would they believe in democracy. Instead, the "Musharraf courts" had become the "Zardari courts," respected and trusted by no one and leading some to seek justice through other means, Iqbal argued. Shahbaz Emphasizes Trust Deficit - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Separately, Ambassador and PolCouns met with Shahbaz Sharif in Islamabad. Reiterating much of the ground that was covered in the briefing to the diplomatic corps, Shahbaz said the door to reconciliation was still open, but so far none of Zardari's emissaries Asfundyar Wali Khan and Fazlur Rehman) had brought much to the table. This was a crisis entirely of Zardari's own making, and it was up to him to respond. Further, the PML-N had zero trust in Zardari at this point, so any agreement would need some kind of guarantor. Zardari had reneged on a deal (to restore former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry) he signed in August on television, so Shahbaz was uncertain how to ensure that Zardari kept his word. Zardari was trying, he insisted, to fool all the people all of the time; "we won't be fooled again." ¶9. (C) Shahbaz reviewed the PML-N's bottom line in a slightly different formulation than explained to the diplomatic corps -- end governor's rule and reverse the Sharifs' disqualification. (See ref B.) If that happened, there could be grounds to sit down and discuss a way forward in an atmosphere that was not "polluted" by deep distrust, claimed Shahbaz. Zardari could ask the Supreme Court for a review of its disqualification decision; after all, noted Shahbaz, the Court had in one day allowed Zardari to become President by canceling the requirement for candidates to have a university degree. Zardari could also pardon Nawaz, suggested Shahbaz, although Shahbaz himself did not need to be pardoned because there was nothing to pardon. ¶10. (C) Shahbaz was cagey over the status of PML-N negotiations with the PML, which holds the votes to give either the PML-N or the PPP a majority in Punjab. "Meetings have happened," he said, and the "vote buying was underway;" ISLAMABAD 00000508 003 OF 003 provincial assembly votes were going for 50,000-70,000 rupees (USD 700-1,000) per vote. PML-N could offer the Chaudhrys representation appropriate to their voting strength in the Punjab government, but the PML-N would not accept preconditions. Shahbaz said emphatically that the PML-N did not want mid-term elections and did not want to bring the Army into power. When Ambassador asked how the Sharifs could control the possibility of violence if they took to the streets, Shahbaz shrugged, saying they wanted peaceful demonstrations but could not control the results. ¶11. (C) Asked to identify possible trustworthy interlocutors, Shahbaz said the PML-N trusted Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani, ANP's Asfundyar Wali Khan and Raza Rabbani; however, "the PM should lead the country out of crisis." PML-N's Chaudhry Nisar and Ishaq Dar could negotiate for the party, but time was of the essence, warned Shahbaz. "The streets are heating up and we (the Sharifs) are taking our lives into our hands in joining the lawyers, march. If anything happens, we will know who is to blame." ¶12. (C) Shahbaz noted that the Sharifs had had an excellent meeting with Ambassador Holbrooke in February and looked forward to building bridges to the Obama Administration. However, the PML-N had been disappointed over the USG's statement that this crisis was an "internal affair." It would have been better, said Shahbaz, to simply say nothing because the U.S. statement implied support for Zardari. In closing, Shahbaz emphasized the dangerous situation Pakistan faces vis-a-vis militancy, warned Shari'a law in Swat would spread to other parts of Pakistan, and said the country did not need a manufactured political crisis. "We should build institutions and not focus on individual leaders," claimed Shahbaz. ¶13. (C) Comment: PML-N has made it clear that the ball is in Zardari's court on next moves toward reconciliation. See septels for Ambassador's discussions with Zardari, Chief of Army Staff General Kayani, and Prime Minister Gilani. We can see the outlines of a compromise, based on a package that includes judicial/parliamentary reversal of the disqualification and an end to governor's rule in Punjab, but convincing the parties to agree before the lawyers' march appears increasingly unlikely. End comment. PATTERSON