DEMONSTRATIONS AND POLITICAL MANEUVERING CONTINUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000429



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, PK

SUBJECT: DEMONSTRATIONS AND POLITICAL MANEUVERING CONTINUE



REF: A. ISLAMABAD 415

B. LAHORE 34



Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gerald Feierstein for reasons 1.4 (b),

(d).



1. (C) Summary: Country-wide protests, particularly in

Punjab, continued today in response to the February 25

Supreme Court decision to disqualify Pakistan Muslim League-N

leaders Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif from public office. In a

fiery speech at a rally, Nawaz attacked Zardari and

reiterated his promise to take his battle to the streets. In

Lahore, the PPP Governor expressed concern that protests

could lead to serious confrontations with the police despite

his orders to avoid violence. In Islamabad, Zardari met with

PM Gilani and scheduled a Pakistan People's Party (PPP)

Central Executive Committee meeting to shore up his party's

less than united base in support of the court decision.

Zardari also met with Pakistan Muslim League (PML) leaders

Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Pervaiz Elahi, whose party is

now in the driver's seat in determining the future government

in the Punjab. Civil society, especially the media, and

almost all political parties except the PPP and the Muttahida

Quami Movement (MQM),criticized the Court's decision as one

that fomented unnecessary domestic discontent and undermined

democracy. The Karachi Stock Exchange, which lost over five

percent (the worst single-day drop in two and half years)

after the court decision was announced, regained points today

on unrelated expectations of an interest rate drop. The

government was easily able to control protests today, but an

increasing number of political interlocutors are questioning

whether the U.S. will intervene with Zardari to calm the

situation. End Summary.



Protests Continue

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2. (C) There were demonstrations across Pakistan as political

fallout continued from the previous day's Supreme Court

decision to disqualify Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N)

leaders Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif from office (reftel A).

Cities across Pakistan, especially in Punjab, saw a second

day of mostly peaceful protests by PML-N supporters, joined

by religious party workers, lawyers, and civil society

activists (reftel B). Thousands (possibly up to 10,000)

gathered in Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and

Rawalpindi/Islamabad; stores were shuttered throughout the

province. Tires were again burned and PPP posters torn down.

There were small, peaceful demonstrations in all other

provincial capitals of Quetta, Peshawar and Karachi.



3. (C) The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Punjab Governor

Taseer told PO Lahore of his concern that protests had the

potential to lead to serious confrontation with the police

despite his instructions to avoid violence (septel). The

reaction was "out of his hands" and depended on PLM-N and its

supporters. Several PML-N provincial assembly members spent

the night in the Punjab Assembly, but when they broke their

siege for breakfast, Taseer locked them out of the building

and threatened arrest if they addressed the crowd. Taseer

reportedly ordered the police to cordon off all other

official, as well as key private, buildings in all of Punjab.

The media reported that federal Interior Minister Rehman

Malik planned to deal severely with protesters.



4. (C) Civil society, especially the media, and most

political parties except the PPP and Karachi's Muttahida

Quami Movement (MQM),criticized the Court's decision.

According to attorney Athar Minallah, the ruling re-energized

the lawyers' movement, with local legal fraternities making

specific plans along the center's general design. Even

supposedly PPP-controlled bar councils reportedly were

preparing to join the march/sit-in planned for mid-March.



5. (C) Likewise, even Zardari's coalition partners, including

Awami National Party (ANP) leader Asfundyar Wali Khan, Jamiat

Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) leader Fazlur Rehman, Jamaat-e-Islami

(JI) leader Qazi Hussain, Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI)

leader Imran Khan, Pakistan Muslim League (PML) Secretary

General Mushahid Hussain, and Pakistan People's Party-Sherpao

(PPP-S) leader Aftab Sherpao condemned or voiced concern

about the negative effect of the Court's ruling on the



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domestic environment. Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP)

Governor Ghani expressed concern that the Zardari-Sharif

drama will serve as a distraction from tackling the problems

confronting Pakistan on its western border.



Zardari Moves to Shore Up His Base

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6. (C) Zardari met again with PM Gilani and announced a

meeting of the PPP's Central Executive Committee. According

to PPP parliamentarian Palwasha Behram, the party has begun

cold-calling members to urge them to go on TV/radio to defend

the Court's decision and deny political motivations by

Zardari. There were unconfirmed rumors that anti-Zardari and

former Benazir Bhutto advisors Naheed Khan, Safdar Abassi and

Muhammad Yousuf Talpur planned to gather soon to discuss a

possible party revolt.



7. (C) Zardari also met with PML leaders Chaudhry Shujaat

Hussain and Pervaiz Elahi, whose party is in the driver's

seat in determining who will rule in Punjab. Neither the

PML-N nor the PPP have a majority, so both are wooing PML.

Elahi wants to return as Chief Minister in a coalition with

the PPP; this long-rumored deal reportedly would also involve

PML joining the PPP coalition in the center. PML General

Secretary Mushahid Hussain, however, told Polcouns he was

counseling Shujaat to wait. According to Mushahid, Zardari,

like Musharraf before him, was overplaying his hand and

unnecessarily creating a confrontation with Nawaz. Comparing

the proposed lawyers' march to the demonstrations in 2007

following the firing of the former Chief Justice, Mushahid

warned of the consequences of small, ill-considered decisions

by leaders suffering from a bad case of hubris.



PML-N: Making Plans

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8. (C) In a fiery speech, Nawaz addressed thousands at a

rally in Sheikhupura, saying yesterday's Court decision was

"tailor-made" by Zardari and denying the Court had any

legitimacy to disqualify him or Shahbaz from office. PML-N

Spokesperson Siddiq-ul-Farooq told Poloff February 26 his

party would organize sustained strikes leading up to the

lawyers' march/sit-in, commencing across the country on March

12 and ending in the capital on March 16. He committed that

the struggle would go on for several months and warned of

civil disobedience if the mid-March actions did not result in

the PML-N's demands: (1) full restoration of the deposed

judiciary, including former Supreme Court Chief Justice

Iftikhar Chaudhry, and (2) repeal of Musharraf's 17th

amendment to Pakistan's Constitution.



9. (C) Farooq further warned that the crowds were not fully

under the party's control. Senior Advocate Akram Sheik, the

Sharifs' attorney before the Supreme Court, told PolOff that

there were no further legal actions that could or would be

taken. Their case would be taken to the streets.



U.S. Reaction?

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10. (C) Contacts across the spectrum were curious about the

USG's position on yesterday's decision and the clash likely

now to ensue. According to PML-N's Farooq, Zardari recently

told Nawaz that the U.S. was keeping him from reinstating

Chaudhry and feared for Musharraf if the 17th amendment were

repealed. By extension, they believe we acquiesced in

yesterday's Court decision. PPP's Behram pointedly asked if

the Embassy had intervened with Chief of Army Staff (COAS)

General Kayani to "save" Zardari; he was widely laying claim

to our support, she said. Mushahid urged the U.S. to

intervene with Zardari to convince him to control Governor

Taseer's actions in Punjab and calm the situation.



11. (C) Comment: Regardless of the political rights and

wrongs of this political imbroglio, the key issue is that

demonstrations, strikes, and continued political negotiating

will distract Zardari from events in Swat and the economic

situation, further undermining public confidence in his

stewardship. So far, the demonstrations have been of medium

size and largely orderly, allowing the government to control

them but also giving both sides sufficient reason to believe



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time is on their side. The next two weeks leading to the

kick-off of the lawyers' march will be the crucial test to

establish which of the leaders has read the situation

correctly.





FEIERSTEIN