POLITICAL UPDATE: ZARDARI CONSOLIDATES POWER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000378 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PK SUBJECT: POLITICAL UPDATE: ZARDARI CONSOLIDATES POWER INSIDE AND OUT REF: A. ISLAMABAD 239 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 182 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: President Asif Zardari has taken simultaneous moves to further consolidate his authority over the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and to extend the PPP's control over both the National Assembly and Senate. Senate elections will not occur until March 4, but the PPP has already locked in a likely plurality in the upper house. Counting the probable gains by coalition partners and "independents," the PPP-led government should reach a Senate majority, even though 50 of the 100 senators still reflect the old Musharraf regime and will stick around until 2012. Nawaz's opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) appears content with a modest pick-up based on its mandate in Punjab; Musharraf's opposition Pakistan Muslim League (PML) may be able to return only one of its 17 senators up for re-election. Meanwhile, Zardari this week has secured key committee chairs for family and friends and suspended the leadership responsibilities of party rivals more associated with his martyred wife, Benazir Bhutto. Nawaz, for his part, has moderated his tone toward the GOP, giving only lukewarm support for the March 12-16 lawyers' march/sit-in and hinting at a thaw in relations with PPP's coalition partner Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM). Whether Nawaz, both in politics and policy, has arranged the chess pieces for the long game has yet to be seen, but Zardari appears to have won these short-term tactical moves. However, these wins have not been followed up with strategic responses to the country's most pressing problems. End summary. Sewing Up The Senate - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has successfully coaxed other parties to agree to uncontested senate slates for Punjab and Sindh. Fifty of the Senate's 100 seats are up for grabs. Pakistan's four Provincial Assemblies are scheduled to gather March 4 to elect 11 new senators each; the National Assembly will elect another six senators on the same day. New members will be sworn in on March 12. Under the inter-party agreements, six of Punjab's seats will go to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N),four to the PPP, and one to Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML). From Sindh, the PPP will claim eight seats, while the Karachi-based Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) will return its three senators. ¶3. (C) The PPP is also expected to do well in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan, where deals are rumored but have yet to be announced. Of the 11 NWFP seats not taken outright by the PPP, coalition partners Awami National Party (ANP) or Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) will prevail. The PPP and JUI-F will likely gain more seats in Balochistan. Baloch nationalists may pick-up the remainder of that province's 11 seats; almost all of them should align with the government. Similarly, four "independent" senators from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA),elected by their cohorts in the National Assembly, are expected to support the PPP-led GOP, and two new senators from the PPP are in line to represent the capital district, elected by the full National Assembly. ¶4. (C) PPP contacts have been modest about the prospect of its coalition taking over the Senate. With only 50 seats turning over, the former ruling PML had the (slight) chance of continuing its control of the upper house; after all, only 17 of its 40 senators are up for re-election. But PML leader Chaudhry Shujaat, after spending months trying to persuade a rebellious "forward bloc" to support his negotiating hand, appears to have only been successful in securing his own Senate seat. His may be the only seat the PML wins of its ¶17. While PML tried to save face, withdrawing Senate candidates who were sure to lose and offering cooperation to its ideological kindred PML-N, PML contacts admit that the party's attempt to negotiate better deals with either the bigger PPP or PML-N failed. Even PML Secretary General Mushahid Hussain had to withdraw in favor of Shujaat. ISLAMABAD 00000378 002 OF 003 In The National Assembly - -- - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) President Asif Zardari has also taken hold of key committees in the National Assembly. His sister and two-term National Assembly member (MNA) Dr. Azra Fazal Pechuho was added to and then elected chair of the Defense Committee. Zardari backed Abdul Qadir Patel to lead the Interior Committee, according to one PPP source. Patel is a long-time rival of Zardari's brother-in-law, Murtaza Bhutto, who Zardari reportedly detests. Patel also represents one of just a couple PPP strongholds in Karachi. PPP's Nadeel Afzal Chan, from a central Punjab feudal family, now chairs the Rules Committee, representing another attempt by Zardari to appease the party's feudal faction. Here's Your Hat - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Meanwhile, the PPP has moved to marginalize non-Zardari adherents. On February 17, the party suspended former Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) president Aitzaz Ahsan and Senator Safdar Abbasi from its central executive committee (CEC). Both were cited for issuing "harsh" statements against party leadership; Ahsan was additionally accused of violating party discipline by leading the lawyers' "long march" against the government. Speaking to reporters on February 18 at the house of former Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Ahsan further poked at PPP leadership, noting the public commitments made by Zardari and martyred Benazir Bhutto to restore fully the deposed judiciary. Ahsan, a long-time PPP member with his own support base, was appeased by Benazir to ensure party unity. Abbasi was a Benazir confidant, serving as her political secretary throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. The party also recently refused to support him for senate re-election. PML-N Playing Nice - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) With court cases still pending on Nawaz' and Shahbaz' eligibility to hold public office, the PML-N appeared to slowly back away from supporting the lawyers' plans for another "long march." The demonstration is now scheduled to begin in Karachi on/about March 12, ending with a sit-in at the National Assembly on March 16. Nawaz stated in a February 17 news conference: "We have not been contacted with respect to the announced sit-in," adding: "We have certain reservations in this regard." Nawaz was similarly lukewarm during a February 19 party meeting, but rank-and-file grumblings led the PML-N's Punjab Law Minister to reaffirm: "There is no question of (PML-N) backing out." SCBA president Ali Ahmad Kurd is supposed to meet with Nawaz February 20 to encourage his party's active participation in the march/sit-in. ¶8. (SBU) In the same February 17 news conference, the PML-N leader offered a small olive branch to PPP's coalition partner MQM, noting that their differences were "not personal" but based on principle. Earlier in the week, Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif (PML-N) met with Sindh Governor Ishratul Ibad (MQM). Though the PML-N later denied the meeting was a "political contact," Shahbaz reportedly said the meeting was "the beginning of political affiliations between the two parties." He traveled southward to donate needed wheat from his native Punjab to Sindh in a clear attempt to extend PML-N influence in the province. An all-parties conference in London, meeting soon after the May 12, 2007, Karachi clashes, severed party contacts with the MQM; unnamed PML-N officials planned to complain to Nawaz about Shahbaz' allegedly unauthorized meeting with Ibad. ¶9. (C) Comment: President Zardari continues to prove himself a master political tactician. He has simultaneously consolidated his hold over his party, and his party's hold over the National Assembly and the Senate. By contrast, main rival Nawaz Sharif has failed to mend fences with the other wing of his traditional center-right Muslim League or to undercut Zardari from within by wooing the PPP's feudals and ISLAMABAD 00000378 003 OF 003 marginalized Bhutto confidants. Consequently, with his accumulating political power, Zardari has been able to manipulate government levers just enough to address Nawaz's most populous rallying cries. However, Zardari's tactical wins have not been matched with strategic responses to the country's most pressing problems. Given Pakistan's longer term economic and security challenges, Nawaz may just be waiting out this round as he continues to build his geographic and voter base. End comment. PATTERSON