WAVE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002947

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PK
SUBJECT: WAVE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS CONTINUES

REF: A. PESHAWAR 220

B. ISLAMABAD 2591

C. ISLAMABAD 2523

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Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its
allies are continuing -- and intensifying -- their wave of
terrorist attacks in Pakistan's settled areas. Separate
attacks in Multan, Lahore, and Peshawar during December 7-8
killed over 70 people. These three attacks came on the heels
of a December 4 attack on a Rawalpindi mosque which killed
approximately 40 people, mostly military officers and
soldiers and their family members. Peshawar remains the
focal point for the terrorism wave, with 13 bombings that,
according to press reports, claimed almost 300 lives.
Though the attacks are aimed at weakening the country's
resolve to continue the military campaign against the TTP in
the FATA, the Army appears to remain committed to the fight.
President Zardari, however, is preoccupied with his own
future and has not demonstrated leadership in rallying the
public against the terrorist and in support of the military.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) A wave of terrorist attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) and its allies in Pakistan's settled areas,
which began several weeks before the Army launched its South
Waziristan campaign on October 17, appears to be
intensifying. On December 8, a car bomb blast near the
offices of a "security agency," possibly the ISI, in Multan,
Punjab province, killed eight people and injured 35. Multan
-- which is Pakistan's sixth largest city, with a population
of around 1.5 million -- had not previously been struck by a
terrorist attack during 2009. Several hours later, in NWFP's
Lakki Marwat district, a bomb exploded on a bridge as a bus
was passing by. The media has not yet reported casualty
figures for that attack.


3. (C) Just a day before, on December 7, two bomb blasts at
Lahore's Moon Market killed 49 and injured over 150, while a
suicide bomber blew himself up outside of a Peshawar
courthouse, killing 11 and wounding at least 50. (Note:
Whether a third December 7 attack -- a bombing in Quetta that
injured nine outside the entrance to a military residential
complex -- is connected to the TTP terrorism wave is less
clear, given that other groups, including extremist Baloch
organizations, have also been responsible for terrorist
attacks in the Quetta area. However, most of those attacks
have been targeted assassinations of government officials.
End Note.)


4. (C) The Moon Market attack was the first in Lahore since
November 2, when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a
highway checkpoint. On October 15, armed militants conducted
simultaneous attacks in the Lahore area against two police
training centers and the Federal Investigation Agency's
regional headquarters. ConGen Lahore contacts have remarked
that they found the Moon Market attack particularly
disturbing because it was a departure from previous attacks
on security facilities or on public figures (i.e., the Sri
Lankan cricket team). Lahoris fear they will see more
attacks on soft targets. The Lahore District Commissioner
and Deputy Speaker of the Punjab Assembly told ConGen Lahore
that they were convinced there was an Indian hand behind the
attacks. When pressed, they admitted no evidence had yet
been discovered at Moon Market; however, they did not believe
a Pakistani could have conceived of an attack on innocent
women and children.


5. (U) On December 4, a group of armed militants disguised as
worshippers attacked Rawalpindi's Parade Lane mosque, which
is frequented by military officials and their families,
killing around 40 people through a combination of gunfire,
grenades, and bombs. The victims included one major general,
a brigadier general, several other military officers, the
20-year-old son of Army 11th Corps Commander Lieutenant
General Masood Aslam, and 17 children. The TTP publicly
claimed responsibility for the attack. On December 2, a
suicide bomber blew himself up in front of the main entrance
gate to Naval Headquarters in Islamabad after security
personnel stopped and questioned him. Two security guards

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were killed in the incident.


6. (U) Peshawar remains the focal point for terrorist attacks
in Pakistan's settled areas. Since the latest wave began in
late September, there have been 13 bombings in Peshawar
which, according to media calculations, have claimed almost
300 lives. This includes an October 28 car bombing during
the Secretary's visit to Pakistan that devastated Peshawar's
Meena bazaar, killing 117 people and injuring at least 168.


7. (C) Comment: The TTP's wave of terrorism appears to be
intensifying, and we see no signs that it will abate any time
soon. The TTP's terrorist acts remain aimed at weakening the
resolve of the Army, government, and public to continue the
military campaign against TTP strongholds in the FATA.
However, there is no evidence thus far that the Army plans on
backing down. On the contrary, at a December 5 funeral for
military victims of the Parade Lane mosque attack, COAS
General Kayani stressed that the Army's commitment to "defend
and protect Pakistan at all costs." That said, the Army has
made clear that maintaining strong public support for its
military operations is essential. The TTP has continued its
own strategy of claiming responsibility solely for its
attacks against military and law enforcement installations
and officials, which has fueled conspiracy theories of
foreign -- especially U.S. or Indian -- involvement in
attacks against markets and other civilian targets (see ref
A).


8. (C) Comment Continued: Unfortunately, President Zardari
remains preoccupied with his own future and has not used the
power of his office to rally the public against the
terrorists and in support of the military and its campaign.
While he later visited survivors of the Parade Lane mosque
attack, he was notably absent from the December 5 funeral
attended by COAS Kayani and Prime Minister Gilani. For his
part, PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif is also not playing a
constructive role. After visiting survivors of the Moon
Market attack at a Lahore hospital on December 8, Nawaz gave
a statement to the media in which he implied that there was
an Indian hand behind the terrorism wave.
PATTERSON