WORLD FOOD PROGRAM FEARS SHORTAGE OF FOOD FOR IDPs

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002880 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR ECON ETRD EAID PGOV PK PREL PREF IO SUBJECT: WORLD FOOD PROGRAM FEARS SHORTAGE OF FOOD FOR IDPs REF: ISLAMABAD 002611 This is an Action Request. See para 9. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The U.N. World Food Program (WFP) is taking steps to prevent a food shortfall in its Emergency Operation in Pakistan (EMOP) in the coming months. Left unaddressed, this break in the WFP assistance pipeline could affect the 2.7 million individuals, including internally displaced persons (IDPs),receiving donations such as wheat, oil and other ready-to-use supplementary food through the EMOP. Members of the international community, including the U.S., have recently pledged additional funds to EMOP; however these may not be disbursed rapidly enough to address the looming shortage. But there are sufficient supplies available locally to meet the shortfall. WFP is negotiating with the GOP to donate a portion of GOP stockpiles of wheat to support the EMOP. We also recommend asking donors to use their funds to purchase and distribute Pakistani wheat, which would have three advantages: avoiding a break in the WFP food pipeline, addressing the EMOP shortage, and reducing the GOP's debt burden with an infusion of foreign currency. End Summary. -------------- THE NEED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The U.N. World Food Program (WFP) currently feeds 2.7 million people, including internally displaced persons (IDPs) and returnee families. WFP has determined that its Emergency Operation in Pakistan (EMOP) requires monthly approximately 36,000 metric tons (MT) of wheat, nearly 2,000 MT of oil and monetary or in-kind food contributions valued at $30 million, which includes logistics and support costs. To continue supporting all 2.7 million beneficiaries, WFP will require approximately 250,000 MT of food aid at an estimated cost of $233 million for calendar year 2010. -------------- FOOD PIPELINE BREAK -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On November 25, the WFP Deputy Country Director alerted donors that WFP anticipates a shortage of wheat, pulses, sugar, and ready-to-use supplementary food in January 2010. Based on WFPs' November 22 pipeline analysis, this would translate into shortage of some $61 million or 9,000 MT of wheat in late January; 34,700 MT for February; and 15,500 MT for April. -------------- DONOR CONTRIBUTIONS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) WFP expects to receive $24 million from Saudi Arabia in the coming months. These funds are part of the $100 million pledged by the Saudis in October and were to be released in two tranches beginning in mid-November. According to U.N. officials, however, the need for multiple MOUs between the U.N. and the Saudi government, bilateral MOUs between U.N. agencies, and approval of final grant agreements between various U.N. agencies and their implementing partners have delayed the disbursement of the funding. The first shipment of 24,500 MT of wheat, provided by USAID's Office of Food for Peace, is scheduled to arrive sometime in April 2010. ¶5. (SBU) During a November 25 donor coordination meeting, the U.K. Department for International Development (DFID) pledged a new contribution of $1 million to WFP. Representatives from Australia are also donating $4.7 million, of which $3 million is earmarked for food and $1.7 million is for logistics. ¶6. (SBU) To date, the USG has provided more than $179 million in emergency food assistance in FY 2009 and FY 2010. This figure includes USAID's recent contribution of $21 million from the Economic Support Fund, used to procure 37,000 MT of wheat from the provincial government of Punjab and 2,000 MT of vegetable oil from Malaysia. This emergency contribution will cover the WFP needs for November and December 2009. ISLAMABAD 00002880 002 OF 002 -------------- CAN THE GOP GIVE MORE? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In May, the GOP gave 5,000 MT of wheat to the EMOP; and the Punjab provincial government subsequently donated an additional 7,200 MT of wheat to WFP in June. WFP is currently negotiating for an additional contribution of at least 7,200 MT of wheat flour from the Punjab provincial government to cover their expected shortfall. ¶8. (SBU) According to Dr. Shakeel Ahmed, Wheat Commissioner at the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, in 2009 the GOP bought 9.2 million tons of wheat from Pakistani farmers for approximately $2.7 billion using credit lines guaranteed by the State Bank of Pakistan. These loans are typically paid back following the sale of wheat to private flour mills. The GOP's stockpiles of wheat currently stand at 8.1 million tons, of which approximately one million tons are consumed per month. At this rate, Post estimates the GOP should have carryover stocks of about three million tons by the time of the next harvest in late April. -------------- PICKING UP THE TAB? -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Comment and Action Request: In theory the GOP has more than enough wheat to cover the EMOP's shortfall and we are encouraging the GOP to contribute. However, having paid for the wheat on credit, the wheat is not technically the GOP's to donate freely. Therefore, we also recommend that the Department demarche relevant governments asking donors to use their funds to purchase and distribute Pakistani wheat, which would have three advantages: avoiding a break in the WFP food pipeline, addressing the EMOP shortage, and reducing the GOP's debt burden with an infusion of foreign currency. End Comment. PATTERSON