PAKISTAN: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEBATES NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002784

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019
TAGS: MNUC KNNP PREL PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEBATES NATIONAL
COMMAND AUTHORITY BILL

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Pakistan's National Assembly is discussing
a bill to turn into permanent law the Musharraf-era National
Command Authority (NCA) Ordinance, which established
Pakistan's nuclear command and control infrastructure. Media
reports had linked the introduction of the bill to
international concerns about the security of Pakistan's
nuclear weapons. In fact, however, the bill had been
presented to the National Assembly on November 2, well before
the latest media frenzy, as part of the government's effort
to renew several ordinances promulgated by President
Musharraf, but set to expire on November 28 per a July
Supreme Court decision. The passage of the law will have
little practical effect on the operations of Pakistan's
nuclear security apparatus, but provides a legal basis for
the continued role of the civilian government in nuclear
decision-making. End summary.


2. (SBU) As part of its effort to renew several ordinances
promulgated by former President Musharraf, the GOP presented
to the National Assembly on November 2 a bill to provide a
permanent, legal basis for the National Command Authority,
which has command and authority over the research,
development, production and use of nuclear and space
technologies and provides for the safety and security of all
related personnel, facilities, information, installations and
strategic organizations. The NCA was established by an
ordinance promulgated by Musharraf on December 13, 2007, but
the ordinance will lapse on November 28 under a July Supreme
Court decision. The National Assembly's Standing Committee
on Defense debated the bill and tabled it on November 12 for
consideration by the full Assembly. (Copies of the original
ordinance and the Defense Committee report were emailed to
the desk and ISN on November 18). Should it pass as drafted,
the law will simply endorse the existing structure, plans and
operations of the NCA.


3. (SBU) The bill under consideration by the National
Assembly reads nearly verbatim with the NCA ordinance, with
only one major amendment. This amendment appears to
indemnify the Authority and its officers for actions taken
prior to the commencement of the Act. It declares "anything
done, actions taken, orders passed...to have been validly
done." The committee report offers no explanation for the
amendment and its true significance remains unclear.


4. (C) The opportunity to bolster civilian oversight of
Pakistan's nuclear program has not been overlooked by those
seeking to reign in military spending on nuclear weapons.
Some opposition politicians have suggested altering the law
to make the Prime Minister, not the President, the NCA
Chairman, but it seems unlikely this idea will be adopted. A
Post non-governmental contact, Maria Sultan of the South Asia
Strategic Stability Institute, stated that her institute is
arguing for the establishment of a third leg for the NCA, a
technical directorate that would provide independent analysis
and auditing of the strategic organizations. She said she
had approached several National Assembly members with this
proposal, but was not sure whether they would risk angering
the military by proposing it as an amendment.


4. (SBU) Subsequent media coverage questioning the adequacy
of Pakistan's nuclear security, sparked by a critical article
in the New Yorker by Seymour Hersh, portrayed the
introduction of the bill as a response to international
concerns. However, Hersh's article did not appear in the
press until November 8, nearly a week after the bill had
already been introduced in the National Assembly. Some media
reports also suggested the law would give extra powers to the
civilian government over nuclear command and control, but in
fact the law reads nearly verbatim to the existing ordinance.



5. (C) Comment: The media hype surrounding the NCA law is
misplaced. It is an important action, but not because it is
a response to international concerns about Pakistan's nuclear
security. Rather, the law will remove a significant question
mark about the legal and political basis of Pakistan's
nuclear decision-making with the existing NCA ordinance about

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to lapse. Moreover, given questions surrounding the future
of the Zardari government, the law will confirm the role of
civilian leaders in the nuclear command and control system.
End comment.
PATTERSON