PAKISTAN: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEBATES NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002784 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019 TAGS: MNUC KNNP PREL PGOV PTER PK SUBJECT: PAKISTAN: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEBATES NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITY BILL Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Pakistan's National Assembly is discussing a bill to turn into permanent law the Musharraf-era National Command Authority (NCA) Ordinance, which established Pakistan's nuclear command and control infrastructure. Media reports had linked the introduction of the bill to international concerns about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. In fact, however, the bill had been presented to the National Assembly on November 2, well before the latest media frenzy, as part of the government's effort to renew several ordinances promulgated by President Musharraf, but set to expire on November 28 per a July Supreme Court decision. The passage of the law will have little practical effect on the operations of Pakistan's nuclear security apparatus, but provides a legal basis for the continued role of the civilian government in nuclear decision-making. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) As part of its effort to renew several ordinances promulgated by former President Musharraf, the GOP presented to the National Assembly on November 2 a bill to provide a permanent, legal basis for the National Command Authority, which has command and authority over the research, development, production and use of nuclear and space technologies and provides for the safety and security of all related personnel, facilities, information, installations and strategic organizations. The NCA was established by an ordinance promulgated by Musharraf on December 13, 2007, but the ordinance will lapse on November 28 under a July Supreme Court decision. The National Assembly's Standing Committee on Defense debated the bill and tabled it on November 12 for consideration by the full Assembly. (Copies of the original ordinance and the Defense Committee report were emailed to the desk and ISN on November 18). Should it pass as drafted, the law will simply endorse the existing structure, plans and operations of the NCA. ¶3. (SBU) The bill under consideration by the National Assembly reads nearly verbatim with the NCA ordinance, with only one major amendment. This amendment appears to indemnify the Authority and its officers for actions taken prior to the commencement of the Act. It declares "anything done, actions taken, orders passed...to have been validly done." The committee report offers no explanation for the amendment and its true significance remains unclear. ¶4. (C) The opportunity to bolster civilian oversight of Pakistan's nuclear program has not been overlooked by those seeking to reign in military spending on nuclear weapons. Some opposition politicians have suggested altering the law to make the Prime Minister, not the President, the NCA Chairman, but it seems unlikely this idea will be adopted. A Post non-governmental contact, Maria Sultan of the South Asia Strategic Stability Institute, stated that her institute is arguing for the establishment of a third leg for the NCA, a technical directorate that would provide independent analysis and auditing of the strategic organizations. She said she had approached several National Assembly members with this proposal, but was not sure whether they would risk angering the military by proposing it as an amendment. ¶4. (SBU) Subsequent media coverage questioning the adequacy of Pakistan's nuclear security, sparked by a critical article in the New Yorker by Seymour Hersh, portrayed the introduction of the bill as a response to international concerns. However, Hersh's article did not appear in the press until November 8, nearly a week after the bill had already been introduced in the National Assembly. Some media reports also suggested the law would give extra powers to the civilian government over nuclear command and control, but in fact the law reads nearly verbatim to the existing ordinance. ¶5. (C) Comment: The media hype surrounding the NCA law is misplaced. It is an important action, but not because it is a response to international concerns about Pakistan's nuclear security. Rather, the law will remove a significant question mark about the legal and political basis of Pakistan's nuclear decision-making with the existing NCA ordinance about ISLAMABAD 00002784 002 OF 002 to lapse. Moreover, given questions surrounding the future of the Zardari government, the law will confirm the role of civilian leaders in the nuclear command and control system. End comment. PATTERSON