GROUND FORCES MOVE TO SECURE MILITANT STRONGHOLD

S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 002780 NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER MARR MASS PK SUBJECT: GROUND FORCES MOVE TO SECURE MILITANT STRONGHOLD IN SOUTH WAZIRISTAN REF: A. ISLAMABAD 2591 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 2607 ¶C. ISLAMABAD 2672 ¶D. ISLAMABAD 2708 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: The Pakistan Army's Operation Rah-e-Nijat ("Path of Salvation") continues to make progress against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in the Mehsud tribal Area of South Waziristan. Three infantry divisions assigned to the Army's 11th Corps continue to be engaged in the operation. Ladha and Sora Rogha are under Army control, while Makin, the reputed key TTP stronghold in South Waziristan, is the next and final major objective of the maneuver phase of the campaign. We are also seeing small but interesting developments as it appears that enemy resistance is stiffening in several areas throughout the battle space. End Summary. ¶2. (S/NF) In the Mehsud tribal area of South Waziristan, the Army's Operation Rah-e-Nijat ("Path of Salvation") continues to attack and seize TTP strongholds. That said, we are seeing small, but interesting developments as it appears that enemy resistance is stiffening in several areas along each of the axes of advance of the three infantry divisions involved in the operation. We believe this is the result of two concurrent situations: areas previously bypassed by Pakistani ground forces must now be engaged by rear area security elements because of stay-behind militant activity, and routes and locations previously considered secured by Army forces are now being subjected to harassing attacks by militants from surrounding mountainous areas. Air strikes were conducted in South Waziristan throughout the week. STATUS OF GROUND FORCES -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) On the southeast axis, armor and infantry units of the 14th Division, which secured Sora Rogha (also known as Sararogha),have advanced to within 250 meters of Janata (7 miles north of Sora Rogha) and are likely building combat strength to seize that village. We assess that the Army will now move quickly to take Janata, a traditional stronghold of Uzbek militants, then direct the 14th Division to proceed north to seize the town of Ghariam, which lies another 12 miles north of Janata and 7 miles east of Kund Mela, which is currently controlled by elements of 7th Division. We believe the intent of this movement is to intercept militants retreating to North Waziristan. ¶4. (S/NF) On the southwest axis, the 9th Division holds Ladha and continues to conduct clearing operations. Clearing operations around Kaniguram and along the western flank of the axis between Kaniguram and Ladha resulted in numerous small unit engagements and the recovery of large militant weapons caches. Lead elements of the 9th Division are at least 2 miles north of Ladha and efforts to advance to Makin to link-up with 7th Division units are expected soon. ¶5. (S/NF) Meanwhile, the 7th Division continues to conduct clearing operations in and around Makin, while a significant number of its forces remain on Makin's periphery in blocking positions and occupy the high ground observing the built-up area. There does not appear to have been a significant effort to penetrate Makin's built-up area. An armored task force has moved southeast to block and isolate Makin at the village of Marobi Raghzai. Units continue to clear north of Makin. Makin is the nerve center of the TTP in South Waziristan, the remaining major population center and the objective of the originally planned maneuver phase of the current campaign. Its capture is vital to the success of this phase of the campaign. ¶6. (S/NF) Comment: Pakistani ground forces continue to secure South Waziristan population centers and lines of communication before winter sets in. However, the local population appears far less welcoming of the Pakistan Army than the population of Swat has been. A military source told Post that the people of South Waziristan are "against us." Local newspapers have featured pictures of disgruntled-looking Waziri IDPs crouching before baton-waving Army soldiers. PATTERSON