WAZIRISTAN UPDATE: GROUND FORCES MAKE GAINS, HOLD

S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 002708 NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER MARR MASS PK SUBJECT: WAZIRISTAN UPDATE: GROUND FORCES MAKE GAINS, HOLD POPULATION CENTERS REF: A. ISLAMABAD 2591 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 2607 ¶C. ISLAMABAD 2672 Classified By: Gerald M. Feierstein for reasons 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (S) Summary: Pakistan ground forces continue Operation RAH-e-NIJAT (Path of Salvation or Deliverance,) in South Waziristan against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and we have seen significant fighting in the major TTP strongholds of Makin, Ladha, and Sora Rogha. It is likely we are now seeing the final stage of the military's efforts to wrest control of the urban centers of South Waziristan from the TTP. The outcome of this ground offensive is not in doubt. The Pakistan Army's 11th Corps has the ability and firepower to overcome militant resistance. That said, it is unlikely we will see the destruction of the TTP or even a reduction of it as a malign force solely by the success of this ground offensive against its geographical strongholds. End Summary. ¶2. (S/NF) Pakistan ground forces continue their ground offensive, Operation RAH-e-NIJAT (Path of Salvation or Deliverance,) in South Waziristan against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its major strongholds in the Mehsud Tribal Area of South Waziristan. We have seen significant fighting in South Waziristan,s three population centers of Makin, Ladha, and Sora Rogha (also known as Sororogha). THREE DIVISIONS CONSOLIDATE THEIR GAINS -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) Elements of three Pakistani infantry divisions - the 14th, 9th, and 7th - of the Army's 11th Corps have moved into all three population centers in their continuing offensive operations against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in South Waziristan (Reftel A, Reftel B, Reftel C). ¶4. (S/NF) On the southeast axis, 14th Division units now hold Sora Rogha; clearing operations there continue; and the Division is consolidating. Artillery units that supported operations six to seven miles south of Sora Rogha either are preparing to or have already moved forward to Sora Rogha, possibly indicating that elements of the Division may soon move to Makin. ¶5. (S/NF) On the southwest axis, the 9th Division holds Ladha and clearing operations there continue. Some of the Division,s armor has been committed to the current battle in Makin. The 7th Division is conducting clearing operations in and around Makin; however, significant numbers of its forces remain on the periphery of Makin in blocking positions and occupy high ground. Elements of the 55th Brigade, usually based in the east along the Indian border, have arrived in Bannu (a district in the NWFP that is northeast of South Waziristan and east of North Waziristan) and will likely be committed to the Razmak-Makin area. Other portions of the Brigade are reportedly in Dera Ismail Khan, a district east/southeast of South Waziristan. There has been no recent reported air activity by the Pakistan Air Force. ¶6. (S/NF) Comment: It is likely we are now seeing the final stage of the Pakistan Army,s 11th Corps efforts to wrest control of the urban centers of South Waziristan from the TTP. While we expect these clearing operations to continue for some days, the outcome is not in doubt. The 11th Corps has the ability and firepower to overcome any militant resistance at any point along the major Lines of Communication (LOCs) or population centers in South Waziristan. Their plans for holding this area, however, are not clear. Some Pakistani officals tell us the Army plans to stay in South Waziristan into the spring, although their past experience in remaining over time in the Federally Administrated tribal Areas (FATA) has not generally been successful. ¶7. (S/NF) That said, it is unlikely we will see the destruction of the TTP or even its reduction as an influential force based solely on the success of this phase of the campaign. We assess that the Pakistan military still faces a difficult choice, especially with the approaching winter, on how to deal with the reality that they have not eliminated this adversary, and that TTP attacks are likely to continue in the settled areas. PATTERSON