PAKISTAN MILITARY LAUNCHES GROUND CAMPAIGN IN

S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 002591 E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2034 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL MOPS PK SUBJECT: PAKISTAN MILITARY LAUNCHES GROUND CAMPAIGN IN SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (S) Summary: The Pakistan military launched a ground combat campaign against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in South Waziristan on October 17. Reconnaissance in force (RIF) operations have transitioned to preparations for a major ground assault. Military sources have described the fighting as "fierce," but the Army has not yet encountered the main belts of TTP resistance. Over 40,000 residents have fled the region since the operation began. The Army predicts a six to eight week campaign, but we believe the fighting might extend for six months or longer, just as in Swat. Terrorists continued their attacks in the settled areas with the aim of weakening the resolve of the military, government, and public, but their efforts do not appear to be succeeding. End Summary. MILITARY LAUNCHES OPERATION RAH-E-NEJAT -------------- ¶2. (S) On October 17, the Pakistan military launched a ground combat campaign, named Operation Rah-e-Nejat ("Path of Salvation"),against militants in the FATA's South Waziristan Agency. Elements of three divisions, which are under the command of the Pakistan Army's 11 Corps and composed of approximately 30,000 troops, commenced offensive operations to eliminate Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) strongholds in Ladha, Makeen, and the area south of Ramzak -- i.e, the Mehsud region of South Waziristan. An estimated 10,000 to 12,000 militants, including perhaps 1,500 foreign fighters (mostly Uzbeks, Afghans, Chechens, and Arabs),are encamped there. Air strikes to prepare the terrain for the ground campaign began in June and entered a decisive phase in mid-August. ¶3. (S) The 11th Corps' 14th Division is advancing from the southeast, while the 9th Division is advancing from the southwest. The 7th Division is poised to attack from the north and currently occupies blocking positions to try to prevent militants from fleeing into North Waziristan. The initial two days of the campaign could be characterized best as reconnaissance in force (RIF) operations, but we now are seeing evidence of a transition to a major ground assault. The 14th Division secured the heights around Kotkai, the home town of TTP leader Hakeemullah Mehsud, on October 19, following a successful night attack, but is facing heavy resistance from inside the built-up area. The 9th Division 
secured Sherwangi, and is currently preparing to advance to Kaniguram, which is just 7-8 kilometers south of Ladha. Units have reportedly taken the heights around Ramzak, Ladha, and Makeen. The Army's Special Services Group is staged at Wana, but we do not know yet whether it is being employed in the operation. ¶4. (C) Military sources quoted in the media have described the fighting as "fierce," with the Army meeting "stiff resistance" from the TTP, though these sources nevertheless maintain that the combat campaign is proceeding successfully and in accordance with the expected timeline. We believe, however, that the Army has not yet encountered the main belts of TTP resistance. ¶5. (SBU) According to the ISPR, the military's public relations service, 16 soldiers have been killed and 37 injured in the fighting through October 22. The military frequently underreports casualty counts. The actual casualty figures may be larger. The ISPR maintains that 130 militants have been killed thus far. The military has destroyed or captured several large ammunition caches, heavy machine guns, and anti-aircraft guns, along with grenades, mortars, RPGs, IEDs, and material to prepare suicide vests. ¶6. (SBU) On October 19, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashraf Pervez Kayani wrote an open letter to the leaders of the Mehsud tribes in South Waziristan seeking their support for the military's offensive against "Uzbeks, foreigners, and local terrorists." Written in Pashto and Urdu with a picture of Kayani, the letter -- which was dropped from helicopters into South Waziristan and also distributed to the media and displaced Waziris in adjoining districts -- argues that the military offensive was launched against terrorists and not against "the peaceful and patriotic people of the Mehsud tribes." Described in the local media as an attempt to win the hearts and minds of the Mehsud people, who make up 60% of South Waziristan's population, the letter was aimed at isolating the TTP and its leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, from their base of support. ¶7. (U) The ISPR also reported that from the start of Operation Rah-e-Nejat through October 20, 4447 families from South Waziristan, comprising 41,289 people, registered themselves as IDPs in the Dera Ismail Khan and Tank Divisions of NWFP. Approximately 80,000 IDPs from South Warizistan were already registered there prior to the operation. UN OCHA is making preparations to handle a cumulative IDP caseload of 250,000 individuals in Dera Ismail Khan and Tank. (Note: In 1998, when Pakistan's last census was taken, the total population of South Waziristan was 429,841. End Note.) ATTACKS CONTINUE IN SETTLED AREAS -------------- ¶8. (U) Pakistani terrorist/militant groups are continuing a campaign of attacks in Pakistan's settled areas that began in late September with the apparent aim of weakening the government's resolve and reducing public support for the South Waziristan campaign. On October 20, six people were killed and up to 42 injured when two suicide bombers blew themselves up in separate incidents on the campus of Islamabad's International Islamic University. In response, the federal and all provincial governments ordered a temporary shutdown of all public and private educational institutions. ¶9. (U) On October 21, gunmen on motorcycle assassinated Brigadier General Moinuddin Ahmed, who was seconded to the UN peacekeeping mission in Sudan, shortly after he departed his house in Islamabad in a military jeep. In response to the assassination, the police quickly rounded up 88 "suspicious people" and tightened checkpoints around the city. ¶10. (U) On October 22, a suicide bomber blew himself up at a security checkpoint near an entrance to the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC),in Kamra, Punjab province, killing five people and injuring four. The PAC encompasses manufacturing and servicing facilities for military aircraft and related equipment. ¶11. (S) Comment: The Army claims that the South Waziristan campaign will last just six to eight weeks, but we expect operations to last must longer, perhaps for six or more months. (When the Swat campaign began in the Spring, the Army predicted a four to six week campaign, yet operations are continuing six months later.) The Army is fighting in very difficult terrain against a competent, determined enemy, with winter coming on. After the Army clears populated areas, establishes ground lines of communication, and consolidates its forces, it will need to initiate systematic search and attack operations to root TTP militants out, village by village and hideout by hideout. ¶12. (S) Comment Continued: Pakistan's military leadership appears to have learned from its previous unsuccessful campaigns in South Waziristan in 2004 and 2007 and has dedicated more troops to its effort this time around. A more important distinction between this operation in South Waziristan and the previous ones is that there is much greater political will on the part of the military, government, and Pakistani population to see this through to the end. The recent attacks in the settled areas -- which include the brazen October 10 attack on Army General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpandi -- appear to have strengthened, rather than weakened, this resolve. PATTERSON