UPDATE ON DISPLACEMENT, RETURN, ASSISTANCE, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 ISLAMABAD 002384 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2019 TAGS: PREF PGOV PREL EAID MOPS SNAR PK SUBJECT: UPDATE ON DISPLACEMENT, RETURN, ASSISTANCE, AND RECOVERY Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Summary and introduction: According to the Government of Pakistan, approximately 1.85 million of the roughly 2.7 million displaced Pakistanis (69 percent) had returned to their areas of origin as of September 25. Ongoing military operations to clear remaining pockets of insurgent resistance have resulted in numerous militant deaths, apprehensions, and surrenders, including of a large number of first and second tier leaders. However, some 850,000 IDPs remain in areas of displacement, and continued insecurity in some areas suggests most will remain displaced this winter and that secondary (in-district) displacement will continue as well. The security situation in Swat remains challenging, particularly in the northern and western areas of the district, but the humanitarian community continues to provide assistance. ¶2. (SBU) USAID is conducting damage assessments of 29 schools in Buner and 33 in Swat and will break ground on reconstruction projects after the winter. State's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL)has completed target hardening of 132 police stations and checkpoints in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). UNHCR is prepared with sufficient winterization non-food item kits and all-weather tents to meet the winter humanitarian need and is prepared to construct transitional shelter where appropriate, including in Bajaur. More than 245,000 of the 430,000 displaced Bajauris have not returned, and military operations may well displace an additional 50,000-60,000. UNHCR,s expectation is that currently displaced Bajauris will remain so over the winter. Septel addresses the possibility of imminent South Waziristan military operations that could displace up to 500,000 additional people. ¶3. (SBU) Displaced community elders, camp managers, and humanitarian actors in Lower Dir are hearing that IDP camps there will close by the 10th of October. About 80,000 displaced from South Waziristan have been registered and verified. While military search operations and curfews make assistance delivery currently impossible in Tank, registration, humanitarian assistance and USG-funded community projects proceed in D.I.Khan. GOP authorities have determined that of the approximately 80,000 Khyber IDPs, (only) those in urgent need of shelter will be assisted and registered (only) at Jalozai camp. The UN early recovery needs assessment and the World Bank and Asian Development Bank damage needs assessment are soon to be released. A GOP-shared draft of the latter indicates approximately USD 1.2 billion in needs. The UN is planning its 2010 humanitarian appeal for Pakistan with the assumption of a shift from large-scale displacements to short-term, small, cyclical ones and with an expectation of a greater focus on early recovery for returnees and those who remained in their area of origin than was the case in 2009. End Summary and Introduction. Status of Military Operations -------------- ¶4. (C) Expansions of militant activities in NWFP and FATA and the Pakistan military's operational response to these threats resulted in significant internal displacements in 2009. The largest of these conflicts, which generated nearly 2 million IDPs, was Operation Rah-e-Raast which was launched in April 2009 to respond to increased militancy, restore the writ of the state, restore public confidence in the government, and remove insurgent leadership in NWFP's Malakand Division. In the course of this largely successful operation, the Army has cleared much of the Division of militant activity and has laid the groundwork for the Government to reestablish its writ throughout Malakand. Despite persistent pockets of insurgent activity in the northern Swat Valley, 77 percent of displaced Swatis have returned to Swat District, and local support for the military and government has increased. ¶5. (C) Clearing operations by more than two Army divisions are conducted daily and have resulted in numerous militant deaths, apprehensions, and surrenders including a large number of first and second tier leaders. First tier leaders recently placed in custody include Taliban spokesman Muslim ISLAMABAD 00002384 002 OF 007 Khan and senior commanders Mahmood Khan and Sher Muhammad Qasab. These actions coupled with a significant effort to establish community police recruited from retired Army members as well as newly formed local militias in all the populated areas of Swat Valley are intended to improve the security situation and eventually permit IDP resettlement north and west of Mingora where disrupted militant forces continue to operate. ¶6. (C) In addition to the Malakand Operation, IDPs have continued to flee militant activity and military/militant conflict in numerous parts of the FATA. In June, the Army launched Operation SHERDIL in Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies. This operation was a continuation of earlier clearance operations in these FATA agencies and was focused on eliminating militants that were using these agencies as a point of infiltration into the NWFP and Afghanistan. These operations have been inconclusive, and another phase focused against militants under Faqir Mohammad may be imminent. Operation BIA DARAGHLAM in Khyber and Orakzai Agencies commenced in August to thwart the Mangal Bagh-led terrorist threat and criminal activities in the region. This operation is ongoing. In the Waziristans, the Army has deployed a considerable force of over 3 divisions in support of Operation Rah-e-Nijat. It is defensively postured and has established a cordon around the Mehsud Tribal region. Air strikes and artillery fires have caused migrations of people primarily from the Razmak-Makeen-Ladha area. Continued IDP Assistance -------------- ¶7. (U) Despite progress in clearing areas of NWFP and FATA of militant activity, the vast majority of currently displaced and recently returned IDPs will continue to require assistance over the winter months, as will substantial numbers of those who remained in areas of conflict and some of the IDP-hosting families. With support from the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, UNHCR has distributed over 230,000 winterized family non-food item kits (including quilts, blankets, mats, kitchen sets, jerry cans, plastic buckets, soap, mosquito nets, and plastic sheeting). UNHCR warehouses are full with more than 150,000 additional family kits, and the pipeline is strong. UNHCR also has ready 20,000 all-weather tents and is prepared to erect 30,000 temporary winterized shelters in areas of return. Winterization preparations have been made to include displacement from Waziristan. ¶8. (U) UNHCR is in discussion with NGOs on the establishment of 30 information centers to provide legal advice and referrals for social services. The centers will be located in areas of both displacement and return. ¶9. (SBU) USAID/OTI has funded the International Organization for Migration to support key GOP assistance offices and the humanitarian clusters in coordinating and disseminating information to affected populations in areas of origin during displacement and in the areas of return. USAID/OFDA-funded Internews uses local media outlets to support efforts to provide information to the IDP and returnee populations throughout Malakand Division. ¶10. (U) In September alone, 2.5 million people have received humanitarian food distributions (94 percent from the World Food Program and the balance from ICRC and the Pakistani army). Sixty percent were reached in the areas of return where there are a total of 20 hubs. With the adjustment of the Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan (PHRP) to include WFP's USD 100 million budget increase, food is now covered at 72 percent in the appeal. In a September 30 donors' meeting, WFP predicted that without additional donations there would be pipeline breaks in oil in November and in wheat in December although those predictions did not account for the Government of Saudi Arabia's recent USD 100 million donation which the UN has not yet apportioned. To date the U.S. Government has provided nearly USD 138 million in food assistance to WFP, representing nearly 50 percent of the total donor contribution to date. USG-provided food ISLAMABAD 00002384 003 OF 007 assistance will continue to arrive in Pakistan through early ¶2010. Transitional Assistance in Swat -------------- ¶11. (U) The security situation in Swat District remains challenging and unpredictable for the provision of humanitarian assistance, particularly in the northern and western areas of the district. However, humanitarian agencies, includingboth NGOs and UN agencies, continue to provide assistance to conflict-affected individuals in the district. In fact, the number of NGOs interested in working in Swat District has increased, and more than 120 people attended the first UN General Coordination Meeting in Swat on September 10. ¶12. (SBU) In Swat district (as in Buner),USAID/OFDA is supporting early recovery and livelihood activities (including cash-for-work and cash voucher programs), agriculture, health, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) activities, as well as provision of emergency relief commodities. OFDA funds ten NGO's to work in Swat. Save the Children, the Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED),Mercy Corps, Merlin, Catholic Relief Services (CRS),International Medical Corps (IMC) and the Regional Institute of Policy Research and Training (Riport) have begun implementing assistance projects in Swat, while the International Rescue Committee (IRC),Oxfam, and American Refugee Committee (ARC) continue to establish offices, recruit staff, and mobilize community members in preparations for livelihood and early recovery activities. ¶13. (SBU) In response to the health needs of returnees in Swat District, Save the Children, IMC and Merlin are operating mobile health units through the district. Save the Children,s three mobile health units have treated approximately 5,000 beneficiaries. IMC is working in four health units, including one hospital north of Mingora, and has conducted 5,300 consultations. About 1,700 families have visited the Merlin health facility just south of Mingora. ¶14. (SBU) Numerous USAID/OFDA partners are providing early recovery and livelihoods support to populations in Swat district. ACTED is supporting vulnerable populations through the provision of agricultural inputs, short-term income-generation opportunities, and access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation in five union councils, with plans to expand to three union councils west of the Swat River. During August, ACTED provided safe drinking water to 400 families per day in Mingora. To date, ACTED has also distributed 1,200 seed packets and more than 2,000 household and hygiene kits to populations in Swat. In addition, ACTED-mobilized committees have identified and prioritized cash-for-work projects to begin late September. ¶15. (SBU) CRS is providing livelihoods support in three union councils, including one west of the Swat River. To date, CRS has distributed over 800 cash vouchers, with plans to distribute 6,000 by the end of October. In addition, CRS is recruiting staff and identifying communities for cash-for-work activities in Swat. ¶16. (SBU) Mercy Corps has also mobilized cash-for-work committees to prioritize projects based on community-identified needs and is creating a beneficiary list for a cash voucher program based on results from an ongoing socioeconomic baseline survey. It has received permission from local government officials to conduct a needs assessment in Matta (north of the Swat River) in the coming weeks. ¶17. (SBU) To prevent the spread of waterborne diseases, USAID/OFDA is providing support to Mercy Corps for a water, sanitation and hygiene program in six union councils in Swat. In cooperation with local government officials, Mercy Corps has prioritized 8 of 14 damaged water supply systems for rehabilitation and will provide voltage regulators for seven of the eight systems while completely rehabilitating the other. ISLAMABAD 00002384 004 OF 007 ¶18. (SBU) With OFDA funding, Riport is implementing an early warning information system in Swat and other areas of return to permit the USG to quickly identify evolving humanitarian needs in the area. To this end, Riport has deployed field monitors to collect information on the socio-economic status of returnees to Swat. ¶19. (SBU) IRC, Oxfam and ARC are finalizing preparations to begin implementing OFDA-funded, community-driven, quick-impact, WASH, agriculture and livelihoods programs in Swat. IRC will begin a pilot Protection Monitoring System in 10 union councils in the district. The Protection Monitoring system, which was developed by the UN Protection Cluster, is being implemented through cluster members to identify immediate needs and provide a quick-response capability for community-identified problems and concerns. ¶20. (U) The UN World Food Program (WFP) is operating 12 hubs in Swat, including two hubs north of Mingora and two hubs west of the Swat River. According to UN staff, WFP plans to open ten additional hubs in Swat District in the coming weeks. ¶21. (SBU) While humanitarian agencies have not yet accessed areas north of Matta, WFP plans to conduct a vulnerability assessment in northern Swat in the coming weeks. The assessment will be conducted in response to a GOP request to provide food assistance to 67,000 families that remained in 25 union councils in northern Swat during the conflict. WFP plans to conduct the assessment to determine how many of the 67,000 families require food assistance. Malakand Early Recovery and Reconstruction Needs -------------- --- ¶22. (SBU) The UN's Conflict Early Recovery Initial Needs Assessment (CERINA) and the Damage Needs Assessment (DNA) prepared by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) are currently being finalized and considered by the GOP before official presentation to donors. The GOP has shared with the Embassy a draft of the Damage Needs Assessment. The assessment includes Malakand Division, as well as Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies in FATA. The assessment considers reconstruction and recovery costs in the water, health, housing, transport, energy, and education sectors, as well as costs associated with reestablishing livelihoods and government services. In its current form, the assessment identifies almost USD 1.2 billion in reconstruction and relief priorities. The largest needs are related to livelihoods (estimated at USD 309 million, including livestock, crops, and irrigation) and social protection (up to USD 420 million in cash assistance). Needs in the transport sector are estimated at USD 240 million. Damages in other sectors were more modest: education (USD 68 million),health (USD 23 million),and energy (USD 20 million). The assessment estimates that up to USD 65 million is needed for housing reconstruction, exceeding previous estimates on the level of damage sustained to private homes. Also, the assessment identified close to USD 45 million of needs in the private sector to repair damage to shops and reestablish production. ¶23. (SBU) As the component assessments of the DNA have yet to be fully consolidated, it is likely that there will be more revision to the figures presented. In a donor coordination meeting September 30, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator and OCHA Head assured donors that the UN, World Bank and ADB are in agreement on the need to ensure a seamless transition from early recovery to reconstruction. In October, building on the Damage Needs Assessment, as well as on the CERINA and other humanitarian assessments and programs, the World Bank, ADB, the European Union, and the UN will undertake a Post-Conflict Needs Assessment (PCNA). While the DNA is an inventory of physical damage and losses from the conflict, the PCNA will identify longer term economic, social and governance development requirements. School Reconstruction in Buner and Swat ISLAMABAD 00002384 005 OF 007 -------------- ¶24. (U) USAID is conducting preliminary site visits and detailed damage assessments of 62 schools in Malakand: 29 in Buner and 33 in Swat. In Buner District, seven schools have been totally destroyed, requiring new construction, and USAID,s Community Rehabilitation Infrastructure Support Program (CRISP) has obtained "No Objection Certificates" to rebuild these seven schools. The remaining schools require partial to full rehabilitation. In Swat District, all 33 schools assessed to date have been totally destroyed requiring new construction. The NWFP authorities have issued a No Objection Certificate to enable USAID core staff and local firms to conduct assessments on an ongoing basis. Contract awards to local design consultants for the first cluster of schools are scheduled for November 2009. Ground-breaking for construction work is anticipated in March 2010 after the worst of winter. CRISP has signed a lease for an office in Buner and is looking for office space in Mingora. Khyber Displacement, Registration and Assistance -------------- -------------- ¶25. (C) UNHCR reports that ongoing military operations which began September 1 (in Bara tehsil) in Khyber Agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have displaced between 10,000 and 12,000 families. The majority of the displaced remain inside Khyber, and a smaller number has taken refuge with host families on the outskirts of Peshawar. While UNHCR had originally obtained written authorization from the Pakistan Government's Special Support Group (SSG) for the registration of and provision of assistance to all these families, the NWFP government, after consultation with the FATA Secretariat, has authorized registration of only those Khyber IDPs who seek refuge in Jalozai Camp. ¶26. (C) The FATA Secretariat contends that 70 percent of Bara IDPs now in Peshawar have houses there and are not in need of support. On September 26, the Director of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) issued an official statement designating "all the dislocated population from Khyber Agency" as IDPs and indicating that "only" those IDPs without shelter or in dire need of emergency shelter will be received in Jalozai (and no other) IDP camp. The statement authorizes the Commissionerate for Afghan Refugees to register only those Khyber agency IDPs in Jalozai camp and requests UN agencies and members of the Camp Management Cluster to assist Khyber IDPs in Jalozai. The statement indicates that any registered IDPs who receive tents and other assistance and then depart the camp will be deregistered immediately. The GOP's Special Support Group for the humanitarian crisis indicated on September 29 that all newly displaced, registered IDPs, in general, and the Khyber IDPs at Jalozai, in specif ic, will receive humanitarian assistance but will not receive the PKR 25,000 (approximately USD 300) debit card offered previously by the GOP to IDPs. South Waziristan Displacement and Assistance -------------- ¶27. (SBU) Of the approximately 11,000 registered and verified families (approximately 80,000 people) displaced from South Waziristan, 80 percent are in D.I. Khan and 20 percent in Tank. Consistent with the wishes of both the Government and the displaced themselves, there are no formal camps in D.I. Khan or Tank. As of September 26, military search operations and curfews in effect in Tank had for several days made registration and assistance provision impossible for the USG- and UNHCR- funded NGO charged with these responsibilities in the area. However, the DCO expected these disruptions not to last for more than a few more days. ¶28. (SBU) In Frontier Region DI Khan, however, USAID/OTI has funded a total of 37 projects at a total cost of USD 1.27 million. Of these, 23 are completed and 14 underway. They include five agriculture projects, primarily related to irrigation system improvement; ten flood protection wall ISLAMABAD 00002384 006 OF 007 projects; and ten water/sanitation projects, primarily providing hand pumps and drinking water to communities. OTI also has a street improvement project, a school and community center repair projects, and a project that has brought new equipment to the DI Khan Press Club. Projects serve to improve relations between the GOP and local communities and to support pro-government communities. A UNHCR-funded NGO is registering IDPs and providing assistance. USAID/OFDA has also provided funds to the NGO to coordinate with the Government and orient field staff for implementation of water, sanitation and hygiene projects in D.I. Khan. Bajaur -------------- ¶29. (SBU) According to the SSG, more than 245,000 of the nearly 430,000 displaced persons from Bajaur Agency have not returned to Bajaur from NWFP. Of these, approximately 14,300 are in Kacha Gari camp (Peshawar),roughly 40,000 in Jalozai (with at least as many supported by the camp but living with host families nearby in Nowshera),1,700 in Benazir camp (Nowshera),and 2,700 in Palosa camp (Charsadda). Bajaur IDPs are not returning home largely because they have security concerns, because their homes have been destroyed (eight villages were flattened and 1500 houses totally destroyed) and/or because the government will not permit them to return to their areas of origin. ¶30. (SBU) The Frontier Corps and government authorities are not permitting the reestablishment of seven villages and fields within 200 meters of the main roads. The Frontier Corps and the FATA Secretariat want to establish a temporary IDP camp and new townships for IDP families; however, the Secretariat does not have the funds to purchase land for these projects. UNHCR does not support forced relocation or secondary displacement camps but will provide transitional shelter nearby homes that Bajauris (re)construct. The Government has not yet procured alternative land for those from the aforementioned seven villages. UNHCR and government authorities, including Lt. General Nadeem, expect that substantial numbers of Bajauris will remain displaced over the winter. With the GOP,s interest in closing Kacha Gari, the inhabitants of this camp may have to find alternative refuge, quite possibly at Jalozai. While the military now deems Charmang Valley to be "cleared", military authorities told a UN intercluster a ssessment team which traveled to Bajaur that impending military operations in Momand tehsil (Bajaur) might well displace another 50,000-60,000 Bajauris. The intercluster team has also identified as a priority need food support to some 4-5000 families who didn't flee the conflict-affected area. Indications of Planned Lower Dir Camp Closures -------------- - ¶31. (SBU) IDP elders, camp management officials from the Commissionerate for Afghan Refugees, and staff of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC),and Medecins Sans Frontiers in Lower Dir told Refugee Affairs Specialist (RAS) on September 24 that government authorities intend to close all Lower Dir IDP camps no later than October 10. RAS visit to two of these camps, Khungi and Munda, each with a population of 3000, established mid-August 2009, found them to be well-functioning and providing essential humanitarian assistance. RAS also observed new police checkpoints and police personnel providing additional security in Lower Dir. The camps in Upper Dir have already been closed. Target Hardening of Police Stations and Check Points -------------- -------------- ¶32. (SBU) INL is strengthening civilian law enforcement by providing training and commodity support and refurbishing/rebuilding police stations and check points. The GOP has prioritized the reconstruction of police stations in Mingora, Rahimabad and Ghalajai. Following a site visit to Mingora in mid-September, NAS had an architect draw up plans to rebuild all three police stations there. Security ISLAMABAD 00002384 007 OF 007 and local bureaucracy permitting, USG-funded reconstruction of these stations will begin in October. INL is also in the process of hardening select police stations and checkpoints with Hesco-like barriers and barbed wire and has completed hardening projects as follows: Schangla (28),Buner (6),Dir (22),Lower Dir (8),Swat (38),and Peshawar (30). Upon delivery, approximately 2000 additional Hesco-like barriers will be installed at GOP-prioritized hardening sites. ¶33. (SBU) INL is also providing training for both the NWFP Elite Force and the FATA levies (which work at the direction of the Police Agents in lieu of a police force in FATA). A one-week human rights and use of force course for command and control elements of the Elite Force will commence for 22 levy personnel on October 5 at the Police Lines in Islamabad, and a two-week leadership course is slated to start November 2. The latest reiteration of in-service levy training began on September 28 at the National Police Academy, and a 12-week basic training course is being developed for launch in February 2010. INL has ordered a number of items, identified by the GOP and NAS as urgently needed, including uniforms, binoculars, protective vests, vehicles, communications gear, and night-vision devices. An INL Corrections Expert will visit Pakistan in October 2009 to assess detention facilities in the NWFP/FATA. Planned UN 2010 Humanitarian Appeal for Pakistan -------------- --- ¶34. (U) The UN intends in late November or early December to launch a 2010 humanitarian appeal to cover a ten-month period ending in December 2010. The appeal is intended to be broad and to encompass the activities of all humanitarian actors who have accepted the established humanitarian principles of impartiality, neutrality, independence and need-based assistance, and the operating rules for providing humanitarian assistance in Pakistan and who join the cluster process. The appeal will present three scenarios: the best case, the worst case and the most likely scenario. The UN has urged donors to encourage bilaterally funded NGOs to join the appeal so that there can be one coherent comprehensive set of planning documents. ¶35. (U) The planning process kicked off September 14-15 with a workshop in which 14 international organizations, 21 international NGOs and 23 NGOs working through 11 clusters developed cluster-specific criteria for selecting projects for the appeal. The two main changes in planning assumptions for 2010 are a shift from large-scale, longer-term displacements to short-term, small cyclical ones (with the possible exception of Waziristan) and an expectation that returnees and those that never left their areas of origin will make up a larger proportion of the assistance caseload than will the displaced and that early recovery will make up a greater proportion of assistance in 2010 than in 2009. PATTERSON