UPDATE ON DISPLACEMENT, RETURN, ASSISTANCE, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 ISLAMABAD 002384

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2019
TAGS: PREF PGOV PREL EAID MOPS SNAR PK
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON DISPLACEMENT, RETURN, ASSISTANCE, AND
RECOVERY

Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary and introduction: According to the Government
of Pakistan, approximately 1.85 million of the roughly 2.7
million displaced Pakistanis (69 percent) had returned to
their areas of origin as of September 25. Ongoing military
operations to clear remaining pockets of insurgent resistance
have resulted in numerous militant deaths, apprehensions, and
surrenders, including of a large number of first and second
tier leaders. However, some 850,000 IDPs remain in areas of
displacement, and continued insecurity in some areas suggests
most will remain displaced this winter and that secondary
(in-district) displacement will continue as well. The
security situation in Swat remains challenging, particularly
in the northern and western areas of the district, but the
humanitarian community continues to provide assistance.

2. (SBU) USAID is conducting damage assessments of 29 schools
in Buner and 33 in Swat and will break ground on
reconstruction projects after the winter. State's Bureau of
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL)has
completed target hardening of 132 police stations and
checkpoints in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). UNHCR
is prepared with sufficient winterization non-food item kits
and all-weather tents to meet the winter humanitarian need
and is prepared to construct transitional shelter where
appropriate, including in Bajaur. More than 245,000 of the
430,000 displaced Bajauris have not returned, and military
operations may well displace an additional 50,000-60,000.
UNHCR,s expectation is that currently displaced Bajauris
will remain so over the winter. Septel addresses the
possibility of imminent South Waziristan military operations
that could displace up to 500,000 additional people.


3. (SBU) Displaced community elders, camp managers, and
humanitarian actors in Lower Dir are hearing that IDP camps
there will close by the 10th of October. About 80,000
displaced from South Waziristan have been registered and
verified. While military search operations and curfews make
assistance delivery currently impossible in Tank,
registration, humanitarian assistance and USG-funded
community projects proceed in D.I.Khan. GOP authorities have
determined that of the approximately 80,000 Khyber IDPs,
(only) those in urgent need of shelter will be assisted and
registered (only) at Jalozai camp. The UN early recovery
needs assessment and the World Bank and Asian Development
Bank damage needs assessment are soon to be released. A
GOP-shared draft of the latter indicates approximately USD
1.2 billion in needs. The UN is planning its 2010
humanitarian appeal for Pakistan with the assumption of a
shift from large-scale displacements to short-term, small,
cyclical ones and with an expectation of a greater focus on
early recovery for returnees and those who remained in their
area of origin than was the case in 2009. End Summary and
Introduction.

Status of Military Operations
--------------


4. (C) Expansions of militant activities in NWFP and FATA and
the Pakistan military's operational response to these threats
resulted in significant internal displacements in 2009. The
largest of these conflicts, which generated nearly 2 million
IDPs, was Operation Rah-e-Raast which was launched in April
2009 to respond to increased militancy, restore the writ of
the state, restore public confidence in the government, and
remove insurgent leadership in NWFP's Malakand Division. In
the course of this largely successful operation, the Army has
cleared much of the Division of militant activity and has
laid the groundwork for the Government to reestablish its
writ throughout Malakand. Despite persistent pockets of
insurgent activity in the northern Swat Valley, 77 percent of
displaced Swatis have returned to Swat District, and local
support for the military and government has increased.


5. (C) Clearing operations by more than two Army divisions
are conducted daily and have resulted in numerous militant
deaths, apprehensions, and surrenders including a large
number of first and second tier leaders. First tier leaders
recently placed in custody include Taliban spokesman Muslim

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Khan and senior commanders Mahmood Khan and Sher Muhammad
Qasab. These actions coupled with a significant effort to
establish community police recruited from retired Army
members as well as newly formed local militias in all the
populated areas of Swat Valley are intended to improve the
security situation and eventually permit IDP resettlement
north and west of Mingora where disrupted militant forces
continue to operate.


6. (C) In addition to the Malakand Operation, IDPs have
continued to flee militant activity and military/militant
conflict in numerous parts of the FATA. In June, the Army
launched Operation SHERDIL in Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies.
This operation was a continuation of earlier clearance
operations in these FATA agencies and was focused on
eliminating militants that were using these agencies as a
point of infiltration into the NWFP and Afghanistan. These
operations have been inconclusive, and another phase focused
against militants under Faqir Mohammad may be imminent.
Operation BIA DARAGHLAM in Khyber and Orakzai Agencies
commenced in August to thwart the Mangal Bagh-led terrorist
threat and criminal activities in the region. This operation
is ongoing. In the Waziristans, the Army has deployed a
considerable force of over 3 divisions in support of
Operation Rah-e-Nijat. It is defensively postured and has
established a cordon around the Mehsud Tribal region. Air
strikes and artillery fires have caused migrations of people
primarily from the Razmak-Makeen-Ladha area.

Continued IDP Assistance
--------------


7. (U) Despite progress in clearing areas of NWFP and FATA of
militant activity, the vast majority of currently displaced
and recently returned IDPs will continue to require
assistance over the winter months, as will substantial
numbers of those who remained in areas of conflict and some
of the IDP-hosting families. With support from the Bureau of
Population, Refugees and Migration, UNHCR has distributed
over 230,000 winterized family non-food item kits (including
quilts, blankets, mats, kitchen sets, jerry cans, plastic
buckets, soap, mosquito nets, and plastic sheeting). UNHCR
warehouses are full with more than 150,000 additional family
kits, and the pipeline is strong. UNHCR also has ready
20,000 all-weather tents and is prepared to erect 30,000
temporary winterized shelters in areas of return.
Winterization preparations have been made to include
displacement from Waziristan.


8. (U) UNHCR is in discussion with NGOs on the establishment
of 30 information centers to provide legal advice and
referrals for social services. The centers will be located
in areas of both displacement and return.


9. (SBU) USAID/OTI has funded the International Organization
for Migration to support key GOP assistance offices and the
humanitarian clusters in coordinating and disseminating
information to affected populations in areas of origin during
displacement and in the areas of return. USAID/OFDA-funded
Internews uses local media outlets to support efforts to
provide information to the IDP and returnee populations
throughout Malakand Division.


10. (U) In September alone, 2.5 million people have received
humanitarian food distributions (94 percent from the World
Food Program and the balance from ICRC and the Pakistani
army). Sixty percent were reached in the areas of return
where there are a total of 20 hubs. With the adjustment of
the Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan (PHRP) to include
WFP's USD 100 million budget increase, food is now covered at
72 percent in the appeal. In a September 30 donors' meeting,
WFP predicted that without additional donations there would
be pipeline breaks in oil in November and in wheat in
December although those predictions did not account for the
Government of Saudi Arabia's recent USD 100 million donation
which the UN has not yet apportioned. To date the U.S.
Government has provided nearly USD 138 million in food
assistance to WFP, representing nearly 50 percent of the
total donor contribution to date. USG-provided food

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assistance will continue to arrive in Pakistan through early

2010.

Transitional Assistance in Swat
--------------


11. (U) The security situation in Swat District remains
challenging and unpredictable for the provision of
humanitarian assistance, particularly in the northern and
western areas of the district. However, humanitarian
agencies, includingboth NGOs and UN agencies, continue to
provide assistance to conflict-affected individuals in the
district. In fact, the number of NGOs interested in working
in Swat District has increased, and more than 120 people
attended the first UN General Coordination Meeting in Swat on
September 10.


12. (SBU) In Swat district (as in Buner),USAID/OFDA is
supporting early recovery and livelihood activities
(including cash-for-work and cash voucher programs),
agriculture, health, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)
activities, as well as provision of emergency relief
commodities. OFDA funds ten NGO's to work in Swat. Save the
Children, the Agency for Technical Cooperation and
Development (ACTED),Mercy Corps, Merlin, Catholic Relief
Services (CRS),International Medical Corps (IMC) and the
Regional Institute of Policy Research and Training (Riport)
have begun implementing assistance projects in Swat, while
the International Rescue Committee (IRC),Oxfam, and American
Refugee Committee (ARC) continue to establish offices,
recruit staff, and mobilize community members in preparations
for livelihood and early recovery activities.


13. (SBU) In response to the health needs of returnees in
Swat District, Save the Children, IMC and Merlin are
operating mobile health units through the district. Save the
Children,s three mobile health units have treated
approximately 5,000 beneficiaries. IMC is working in four
health units, including one hospital north of Mingora, and
has conducted 5,300 consultations. About 1,700 families have
visited the Merlin health facility just south of Mingora.


14. (SBU) Numerous USAID/OFDA partners are providing early
recovery and livelihoods support to populations in Swat
district. ACTED is supporting vulnerable populations through
the provision of agricultural inputs, short-term
income-generation opportunities, and access to safe drinking
water and improved sanitation in five union councils, with
plans to expand to three union councils west of the Swat
River. During August, ACTED provided safe drinking water to
400 families per day in Mingora. To date, ACTED has also
distributed 1,200 seed packets and more than 2,000 household
and hygiene kits to populations in Swat. In addition,
ACTED-mobilized committees have identified and prioritized
cash-for-work projects to begin late September.


15. (SBU) CRS is providing livelihoods support in three union
councils, including one west of the Swat River. To date, CRS
has distributed over 800 cash vouchers, with plans to
distribute 6,000 by the end of October. In addition, CRS is
recruiting staff and identifying communities for
cash-for-work activities in Swat.


16. (SBU) Mercy Corps has also mobilized cash-for-work
committees to prioritize projects based on
community-identified needs and is creating a beneficiary list
for a cash voucher program based on results from an ongoing
socioeconomic baseline survey. It has received permission
from local government officials to conduct a needs assessment
in Matta (north of the Swat River) in the coming weeks.


17. (SBU) To prevent the spread of waterborne diseases,
USAID/OFDA is providing support to Mercy Corps for a water,
sanitation and hygiene program in six union councils in Swat.
In cooperation with local government officials, Mercy Corps
has prioritized 8 of 14 damaged water supply systems for
rehabilitation and will provide voltage regulators for seven
of the eight systems while completely rehabilitating the
other.

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18. (SBU) With OFDA funding, Riport is implementing an early
warning information system in Swat and other areas of return
to permit the USG to quickly identify evolving humanitarian
needs in the area. To this end, Riport has deployed field
monitors to collect information on the socio-economic status
of returnees to Swat.


19. (SBU) IRC, Oxfam and ARC are finalizing preparations to
begin implementing OFDA-funded, community-driven,
quick-impact, WASH, agriculture and livelihoods programs in
Swat. IRC will begin a pilot Protection Monitoring System in
10 union councils in the district. The Protection Monitoring
system, which was developed by the UN Protection Cluster, is
being implemented through cluster members to identify
immediate needs and provide a quick-response capability for
community-identified problems and concerns.


20. (U) The UN World Food Program (WFP) is operating 12 hubs
in Swat, including two hubs north of Mingora and two hubs
west of the Swat River. According to UN staff, WFP plans to
open ten additional hubs in Swat District in the coming
weeks.


21. (SBU) While humanitarian agencies have not yet accessed
areas north of Matta, WFP plans to conduct a vulnerability
assessment in northern Swat in the coming weeks. The
assessment will be conducted in response to a GOP request to
provide food assistance to 67,000 families that remained in
25 union councils in northern Swat during the conflict. WFP
plans to conduct the assessment to determine how many of the
67,000 families require food assistance.

Malakand Early Recovery and Reconstruction Needs
-------------- ---


22. (SBU) The UN's Conflict Early Recovery Initial Needs
Assessment (CERINA) and the Damage Needs Assessment (DNA)
prepared by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB)
are currently being finalized and considered by the GOP
before official presentation to donors. The GOP has shared
with the Embassy a draft of the Damage Needs Assessment. The
assessment includes Malakand Division, as well as Bajaur and
Mohmand Agencies in FATA. The assessment considers
reconstruction and recovery costs in the water, health,
housing, transport, energy, and education sectors, as well as
costs associated with reestablishing livelihoods and
government services. In its current form, the assessment
identifies almost USD 1.2 billion in reconstruction and
relief priorities. The largest needs are related to
livelihoods (estimated at USD 309 million, including
livestock, crops, and irrigation) and social protection (up
to USD 420 million in cash assistance). Needs in the
transport sector are estimated at USD 240 million. Damages
in other sectors were more modest: education (USD 68
million),health (USD 23 million),and energy (USD 20
million). The assessment estimates that up to USD 65 million
is needed for housing reconstruction, exceeding previous
estimates on the level of damage sustained to private homes.
Also, the assessment identified close to USD 45 million of
needs in the private sector to repair damage to shops and
reestablish production.


23. (SBU) As the component assessments of the DNA have yet
to be fully consolidated, it is likely that there will be
more revision to the figures presented. In a donor
coordination meeting September 30, the UN Humanitarian
Coordinator and OCHA Head assured donors that the UN, World
Bank and ADB are in agreement on the need to ensure a
seamless transition from early recovery to reconstruction.
In October, building on the Damage Needs Assessment, as well
as on the CERINA and other humanitarian assessments and
programs, the World Bank, ADB, the European Union, and the UN
will undertake a Post-Conflict Needs Assessment (PCNA).
While the DNA is an inventory of physical damage and losses
from the conflict, the PCNA will identify longer term
economic, social and governance development requirements.

School Reconstruction in Buner and Swat

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--------------


24. (U) USAID is conducting preliminary site visits and
detailed damage assessments of 62 schools in Malakand: 29 in
Buner and 33 in Swat. In Buner District, seven schools have
been totally destroyed, requiring new construction, and
USAID,s Community Rehabilitation Infrastructure Support
Program (CRISP) has obtained "No Objection Certificates" to
rebuild these seven schools. The remaining schools require
partial to full rehabilitation. In Swat District, all 33
schools assessed to date have been totally destroyed
requiring new construction. The NWFP authorities have issued
a No Objection Certificate to enable USAID core staff and
local firms to conduct assessments on an ongoing basis.
Contract awards to local design consultants for the first
cluster of schools are scheduled for November 2009.
Ground-breaking for construction work is anticipated in March
2010 after the worst of winter. CRISP has signed a lease for
an office in Buner and is looking for office space in
Mingora.

Khyber Displacement, Registration and Assistance
-------------- --------------


25. (C) UNHCR reports that ongoing military operations which
began September 1 (in Bara tehsil) in Khyber Agency in the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have displaced
between 10,000 and 12,000 families. The majority of the
displaced remain inside Khyber, and a smaller number has
taken refuge with host families on the outskirts of Peshawar.
While UNHCR had originally obtained written authorization
from the Pakistan Government's Special Support Group (SSG)
for the registration of and provision of assistance to all
these families, the NWFP government, after consultation with
the FATA Secretariat, has authorized registration of only
those Khyber IDPs who seek refuge in Jalozai Camp.


26. (C) The FATA Secretariat contends that 70 percent of
Bara IDPs now in Peshawar have houses there and are not in
need of support. On September 26, the Director of the
Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) issued an
official statement designating "all the dislocated population
from Khyber Agency" as IDPs and indicating that "only" those
IDPs without shelter or in dire need of emergency shelter
will be received in Jalozai (and no other) IDP camp. The
statement authorizes the Commissionerate for Afghan
Refugees to register only those Khyber agency IDPs in Jalozai
camp and requests UN agencies and members of the Camp
Management Cluster to assist Khyber IDPs in Jalozai. The
statement indicates that any registered IDPs who receive
tents and other assistance and then depart the camp will be
deregistered immediately. The GOP's Special Support Group
for the humanitarian crisis indicated on September 29 that
all newly displaced, registered IDPs, in general, and the
Khyber IDPs at Jalozai, in specif
ic, will receive humanitarian assistance but will not receive
the PKR 25,000 (approximately USD 300) debit card offered
previously by the GOP to IDPs.

South Waziristan Displacement and Assistance
--------------


27. (SBU) Of the approximately 11,000 registered and verified
families (approximately 80,000 people) displaced from South
Waziristan, 80 percent are in D.I. Khan and 20 percent in
Tank. Consistent with the wishes of both the Government and
the displaced themselves, there are no formal camps in D.I.
Khan or Tank. As of September 26, military search operations
and curfews in effect in Tank had for several days made
registration and assistance provision impossible for the USG-
and UNHCR- funded NGO charged with these responsibilities in
the area. However, the DCO expected these disruptions not to
last for more than a few more days.


28. (SBU) In Frontier Region DI Khan, however, USAID/OTI has
funded a total of 37 projects at a total cost of USD 1.27
million. Of these, 23 are completed and 14 underway. They
include five agriculture projects, primarily related to
irrigation system improvement; ten flood protection wall

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projects; and ten water/sanitation projects, primarily
providing hand pumps and drinking water to communities. OTI
also has a street improvement project, a school and community
center repair projects, and a project that has brought new
equipment to the DI Khan Press Club. Projects serve to
improve relations between the GOP and local communities and
to support pro-government communities. A UNHCR-funded NGO is
registering IDPs and providing assistance. USAID/OFDA has
also provided funds to the NGO to coordinate with the
Government and orient field staff for implementation of
water, sanitation and hygiene projects in D.I. Khan.

Bajaur
--------------


29. (SBU) According to the SSG, more than 245,000 of the
nearly 430,000 displaced persons from Bajaur Agency have not
returned to Bajaur from NWFP. Of these, approximately 14,300
are in Kacha Gari camp (Peshawar),roughly 40,000 in Jalozai
(with at least as many supported by the camp but living with
host families nearby in Nowshera),1,700 in Benazir camp
(Nowshera),and 2,700 in Palosa camp (Charsadda). Bajaur
IDPs are not returning home largely because they have
security concerns, because their homes have been destroyed
(eight villages were flattened and 1500 houses totally
destroyed) and/or because the government will not permit them
to return to their areas of origin.


30. (SBU) The Frontier Corps and government authorities are
not permitting the reestablishment of seven villages and
fields within 200 meters of the main roads. The Frontier
Corps and the FATA Secretariat want to establish a temporary
IDP camp and new townships for IDP families; however, the
Secretariat does not have the funds to purchase land for
these projects. UNHCR does not support forced relocation or
secondary displacement camps but will provide transitional
shelter nearby homes that Bajauris (re)construct. The
Government has not yet procured alternative land for those
from the aforementioned seven villages. UNHCR and government
authorities, including Lt. General Nadeem, expect that
substantial numbers of Bajauris will remain displaced over
the winter. With the GOP,s interest in closing Kacha Gari,
the inhabitants of this camp may have to find alternative
refuge, quite possibly at Jalozai. While the military now
deems Charmang Valley to be "cleared", military authorities
told a UN intercluster a
ssessment team which traveled to Bajaur that impending
military operations in Momand tehsil (Bajaur) might well
displace another 50,000-60,000 Bajauris. The intercluster
team has also identified as a priority need food support to
some 4-5000 families who didn't flee the conflict-affected
area.

Indications of Planned Lower Dir Camp Closures
-------------- -


31. (SBU) IDP elders, camp management officials from the
Commissionerate for Afghan Refugees, and staff of the
International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC),and Medecins
Sans Frontiers in Lower Dir told Refugee Affairs Specialist
(RAS) on September 24 that government authorities intend to
close all Lower Dir IDP camps no later than October 10. RAS
visit to two of these camps, Khungi and Munda, each with a
population of 3000, established mid-August 2009, found them
to be well-functioning and providing essential humanitarian
assistance. RAS also observed new police checkpoints and
police personnel providing additional security in Lower Dir.
The camps in Upper Dir have already been closed.

Target Hardening of Police Stations and Check Points
-------------- --------------


32. (SBU) INL is strengthening civilian law enforcement by
providing training and commodity support and
refurbishing/rebuilding police stations and check points.
The GOP has prioritized the reconstruction of police stations
in Mingora, Rahimabad and Ghalajai. Following a site visit
to Mingora in mid-September, NAS had an architect draw up
plans to rebuild all three police stations there. Security

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and local bureaucracy permitting, USG-funded reconstruction
of these stations will begin in October. INL is also in the
process of hardening select police stations and checkpoints
with Hesco-like barriers and barbed wire and has completed
hardening projects as follows: Schangla (28),Buner (6),Dir
(22),Lower Dir (8),Swat (38),and Peshawar (30). Upon
delivery, approximately 2000 additional Hesco-like barriers
will be installed at GOP-prioritized hardening sites.


33. (SBU) INL is also providing training for both the NWFP
Elite Force and the FATA levies (which work at the direction
of the Police Agents in lieu of a police force in FATA). A
one-week human rights and use of force course for command and
control elements of the Elite Force will commence for 22 levy
personnel on October 5 at the Police Lines in Islamabad, and
a two-week leadership course is slated to start November 2.
The latest reiteration of in-service levy training began on
September 28 at the National Police Academy, and a 12-week
basic training course is being developed for launch in
February 2010. INL has ordered a number of items, identified
by the GOP and NAS as urgently needed, including uniforms,
binoculars, protective vests, vehicles, communications gear,
and night-vision devices. An INL Corrections Expert will
visit Pakistan in October 2009 to assess detention facilities
in the NWFP/FATA.

Planned UN 2010 Humanitarian Appeal for Pakistan
-------------- ---


34. (U) The UN intends in late November or early December to
launch a 2010 humanitarian appeal to cover a ten-month period
ending in December 2010. The appeal is intended to be broad
and to encompass the activities of all humanitarian actors
who have accepted the established humanitarian principles of
impartiality, neutrality, independence and need-based
assistance, and the operating rules for providing
humanitarian assistance in Pakistan and who join the cluster
process. The appeal will present three scenarios: the best
case, the worst case and the most likely scenario. The UN
has urged donors to encourage bilaterally funded NGOs to join
the appeal so that there can be one coherent comprehensive
set of planning documents.


35. (U) The planning process kicked off September 14-15 with
a workshop in which 14 international organizations, 21
international NGOs and 23 NGOs working through 11 clusters
developed cluster-specific criteria for selecting projects
for the appeal. The two main changes in planning assumptions
for 2010 are a shift from large-scale, longer-term
displacements to short-term, small cyclical ones (with the
possible exception of Waziristan) and an expectation that
returnees and those that never left their areas of origin
will make up a larger proportion of the assistance caseload
than will the displaced and that early recovery will make up
a greater proportion of assistance in 2010 than in 2009.
PATTERSON