PAKISTAN WILL OBSERVE CTBT CONFERENCE, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 002285 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2019 TAGS: PARM KNNP PREL KTBT PGOV MNUC PK SUBJECT: PAKISTAN WILL OBSERVE CTBT CONFERENCE, BUT CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE INDIAN NUCLEAR TESTS REF: STATE 95946 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) POLOFF raised GOP participation in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Article XIV Conference (reftel) with MFA Disarmament Director General Irfan Yusuf Shami on September 18. Shami reported that Pakistan will be an observer at the conference, as it has been since 1998. He indicated that an officer from the Pakistani mission in New York probably would represent the GOP. Although he welcomed the offer of bilateral discussions on the sidelines of the conference, he did not believe Pakistan would be represented at an appropriate level. ¶2. (C) Shami stated that the GOP is worried about signals from India that it is considering a new round of nuclear explosive tests. These signals, coupled with the recent launch by India of a nuclear-powered submarine and its ongoing investment in anti-ballistic missile systems, suggests an arms race in progress, he asserted. Reiterating previous remarks by Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi that Pakistan would not automatically follow a tit-for-tat policy should India test, Shami expressed concern at the possibility that India would conduct new nuclear tests and then immediately sign the CTBT. "Such a scenario would be extremely difficult for Pakistan," he said. He urged the USG to pressure New Delhi to not conduct new nuclear tests. ¶3. (C) Comment: Shami's statements reveal some concern in Islamabad about Pakistan's strategic position vis-a-vis India. Earlier, in the context of U.S. and allied demarches on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, GOP officials had expressed dismay about India's nuclear submarine launch, arguing that it changes the strategic equation on the sub-continent. With the advent of the nuclear testing debate in India, the concerns in Islamabad appear to have ratcheted up a degree, such that Foreign Minister Qureshi decided to weigh in on September 9 saying Pakistan is "disturbed" by the reports from India, but "Pakistan is capable of protecting its interests." While a repeat of the May 1998 nuclear tests seems remote at this juncture, Pakistani concerns bear further watching. End comment. PATTERSON