FORMER RULING PARTY PML SPLITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 002162


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL
SUBJECT: FORMER RULING PARTY PML SPLITS

REF: ISLAMABAD 01665

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Following weeks of wrangling within the
former ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) about the
intra-party electoral process, and on the heels of the July
20 national-level party elections in which Chaudhry Shujaat
Hussain was reelected unopposed as PML president, dissident
party members formally announced on August 20 their split
with the party to form the "genuine" PML. The
dissidents--led by Salim Saifullah Khan, Hamid Nasir Chattha,
and Humayun Akhtar--charged Shujaat with seeking an
unconstitutional third term and of transforming the party
into a family enterprise. Shujaat loyalists largely dismiss
the dissidents. PML members have claimed in the media that
the dissident group is being bankrolled by former President
Pervez Musharraf, who they say is using the faction as a
vehicle for a possible political comeback, a charge PML
dissidents deny. While elements within the dissident group
seem amenable to reunification if certain conditions are met,
it is unlikely to happen at this time. End Summary


2. (U) On August 20, the split within the PML became
official when the "like-minded" or "dissident" members of the
party announced an interim new party leadership following a
convention they held that day in Islamabad. The PML
dissident group claim that the July 20 reelection of Chaudhry
Shujaat Hussain to a third term as the party president and
Mushahid Hussain Sayed as the secretary general did not
conform to the party's constitution and electoral procedures,
which they say bars a president from running for a third term
(Reftel). The PML splinter group is headed by Salim
Saifullah Khan, Hamid Nasir Chattha, Humayun Akhtar, and
Khurshid Kasuri, respectively the splinter group's interim
president, chairman, secretary general, and chairman of the
steering committee. They reportedly plan to hold party
elections at the central and lower level within a year, and
have submitted to the Election Commission of Pakistan a
request to retain use of the PML party name and symbol.


3. (C) Khan, the president of the PML splinter group and a
National Assembly Senator, told PolCouns in a September 1
meeting that members of the dissident group parted ways with
Shujaat because of the latter's dominance of the party and
violation of the party's constitution in seeking a third
term. He argued that his group ultimately wants a party
where a "merit-based system" prevails in selecting party
leaders and not one led by a family "dynasty."


4. (C) On August 21, POLOFF met with Chattha, the chairman
of the PML splinter group and current member of the Punjab
Provincial Assembly who lost his National Assembly seat in
the 2008 elections. He downplayed the division within the
party as an "internal squabble" and characterized it as a
"split but not a split." Chattha noted that the dissidents'
goal was not/not the formation of a new party, but rather to
reclaim the PML through a true democratic process. Chattha,
like Khan, cited Shujaat's family dominance within the party
as a significant factor in the split. He revealed that, as a
compromise, the dissidents had given Shujaat the option to
step down to let another family member run for party
president, but he refused.


5. (C) Both Chattha and Khan expressed concern about
Shujaat's health and consequently his ability to effectively
lead the PML. While Chattha was careful not to be overly
critical of Shujaat, he said Shujaat suffers from Parkinson's
disease and was not in a position to lead the party. Khan
also echoed similar views about Shujaat's health, adding that
Shujaat's lack of verbal acuity was a hindrance in this
"media age." Chattha, however, reserved his harshest
comments for Shujaat's cousin and former Punjab Chief
Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, who he said was greatly
disliked within the party and who was yet another factor that
led the group to splinter. Despite these criticisms, Chattha
suggested the split was not irrevocable should party
reelections take place through a newly-elected general
council.


6. (C) The dissident group seems confident they have the
numerical support to take over the party. Chattha declared
that 10,000 party members were present at the convention
they held on August 20, a figure which seems highly
exaggerated. Khan told PolCouns that 11 National Assembly
Members and six Senators had joined their ranks and that they
were seeking the support of four other Senators from
Balochistan; he added they needed 11 Senators to take control
of the bench (Note: The PML holds 53 seats in the National
Assembly and 21 in the Senate. End Note.).


7. (C) Chattha disclosed to POLOFF that Atta Maneka, leader
of the PML Forward Bloc in the Punjab Assembly which had
earlier split with the PML in 2008, was now supporting their
group; Khan also confirmed this point in his meeting with
PolCouns. Maneka, who controls approximately 30 Members of
the Punjab Assembly and who wields influence at the
provincial level, has had ties with the Pakistan Peoples
Party (PPP). Overall, Chattha stated the PML dissident group
had its eyes on the next general elections and was less
concerned with gaining influence in the current National
Assembly, where he said the group was happy to sit on the
Opposition benches.


8. (C) Members of the PML Shujaat group largely dismiss the
dissident group. Donya Aziz, a PML member of the national
assembly and Shujaat loyalist, described the group as
"insignificant" in a August 28 meeting with PolCouns. She
argued the dissidents simply do not have the grassroots
support they claim to have. She discounted claims that
thousands of people showed up to the group's August 20
convention, citing the event venue simply lacked such
capacity. On August 31, POLOFF met with Makhdoom Syed Faisal
Saleh Hayat, leader of the PML party in the National Assembly
and former Interior Minister, who echoed similar sentiments
about the lack of real heavyweight support behind the
dissidents. He charged they were mainly disgruntled members
who once held prominent political positions but were defeated
in the 2008 national elections, and who now blame the party
for this loss. He speculated that members of the dissident
group would eventually defect to the PML-N.


9. (C) PML members have alleged in the media that Musharraf
has aligned himself with the PML dissident group. They claim
he is providing the dissidents with financial backing and
that he is in fact the mastermind behind the split. They
further charge that Musharraf was denied the party's
leadership in favor of Shujaat and consequently he is using
the PML dissident group to stage a political comeback. Khan
in his meeting with PolCouns denied that Musharraf was
affiliated with the dissident group or that he was funding
them. He admitted his older brother and National Assembly
Member Humayun Saifullah Khan had met with Musharraf
recently, but simply out of courtesy. Khan added that if he
goes to London he would meet with Musharraf and would advise
him to remain abroad where he could still play a role
politically while traveling the lecture circuit. Khan
maintained that their decision to split was "a principled
stand."


10. (C) Comment: The dissident group seems determined to
move ahead with plans to claim the PML as its own. While
dissident members like Chattha seem amenable to a party
reunification should Shujaat capitulate to their demands of
holding new intra-party elections under a more democratic
process, it is unlikely Shujaat would agree to such terms,
thereby making party reunification doubtful. The dissident
group will continue to seek out more support from among PML
ranks and elsewhere to bolster its numbers within the
National Assembly, but its focus is primarily on finding a
political home for its members in one of the two major
parties (PPP or PML-N) in advance of the next general
elections. Assertions that Musharraf may have played a role
in the party's split and that he is supporting the
dissidents, while unverified, are plausible. End Comment.


PATTERSON