UPDATE ON PAKISTAN IDP SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000183

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER MOPS
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON PAKISTAN IDP SITUATION

REF: USUN NEW YORK 00035

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. As of January 23, the population of
internally displaced persons (IDPs) from the
conflict-afflicted areas of the Federally Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA) and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP)
continued to rise, with approximately 10,000 families living
in the twelve established camps and approximately 60,000
families living outside the camps. The UN Office of
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has floated a
draft consolidated appeal for funding for $122 million, $99
million of which is new money, which would cover a population
of 600,000. UN offices have been responding to Embassy and
Washington requests to examine programs in Pakistan, and on
January 27, Embassy had a followup meeting with the visiting
OCHA Director, who agreed that the UN has been slow to
adequately respond to a growing humanitarian crisis. The
11th corps in Peshawar has been tasked to take the military
lead on the IDP issue and is forming a team to assist in the
humanitarian efforts. End Summary.

CURRENT IDP SITUATION
--------------


2. (U) According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR),59,224 individuals (or approximately 10,000
families) are currently living in the twelve established
camps. Outside these camps, 149,235 officially registered
individuals (or approximately 25,000 families) are living
with host families or in rental properties, with an
unofficial estimate of these number to be 210,000
individuals. Registration of IDPs is beginning in the
southern districts of the NWFP, especially in Frontier
Regions Hangu, Bannu, and D.I. Khan.


3. (U) On January 24, IDPs from Mohmand Agency, living in
camps in and around Peshawar, staged a protest in Peshawar
against the lack of facilities and services at the various
camps. Additionally, Shaukat Ullah, a Member of the National
Assembly from Bajaur Agency, reported to Poloff recently that
as military operations have continued in the FATA, growing
numbers of Bajaur residents are moving as far as Rawalpindi
and Karachi to find assistance.

PAKMIL INVOLVEMENT WITH IDPS
--------------


4. (C) On January 23, ODRP Deputy Chief and Border
Coordinator met with Pakistan Army Director General of
Military Operations (DGMO) Javed Iqbal to discuss the IDP
situation. Recognizing that the growing IDP situation and
lack of government response posed a significant threat to
military operations in the area, Iqbal said he was
establishing a cell in Peshawar under the 11th Corps command
to examine and assist with the IDP problem. Chief of Army
Staff Kayani had told the Army to start taking the lead on
the IDP issue, he said. Iqbal agreed this was a military
problem -- as the months have dragged on, larger swaths of
the population are becoming disaffected and disillusioned
with both the government and the military. Iqbal recognized
the military had lost months, and needed to start addressing
the needs of the population to turn the situation around.


5. (C) While appreciating the need to serve those already
displaced, Iqbal said the military prefers to focus on
providing quicker compensation (preferably in cash) to
affected families immediately following military operations;
he said he was willing to meet any USG transparency and
accountability requirements to make this program work. Iqbal
also appreciated the need for better security in areas where
IDPs are located and for those delivering assistance.
However, he stopped short of making any kind of commitment on
the part of the military to achieve that. It is unclear if
the civilian government is aware of this military IDP cell,
but Embassy recommended that the NWFP government be included
on these discussions and response. Iqbal said he would

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inform us when the new IDP cell is stood up, and would invite
us to meet with them.

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO IDP ISSUE
--------------


7. (U) Following a number of conversations with various UN
offices, UN headquarters within Pakistan has been
coordinating and reviewing its programs. On January 22, the
various UN offices met to discuss the consolidated appeal
that was reported by the Embassy in previous communications.
The draft consolidated UN appeal came to USD 122 million,
with USD 23 million already received and USD 99 million in
new money. This appeal is based on a projected IDP
population of 600,000, once those in Swat and the southern
districts are registered and the constant growth of the
population by 100 individuals each day is taken into account.
Additionally, we understand the International Committee for
the Red Cross (ICRC) will also make an appeal for
approximately USD 20 million in February for additional
humanitarian relief in Swat, Bajaur, and Dir.


8. (U) The World Food Program (WFP) has brought a consultant
from Somalia to address problems of distribution in insecure
areas and to assess staffing levels. WFP plans to have the
capacity to distribute to all registered IDPs by February
2009 and has submitted an appeal (within the consolidated
appeal) to the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance for USD
8 million, including a "blended food" component, which will
address the shortages in supplements for children and
pregnant women.

SECURITY REMAINS A PROBLEM
--------------


9. (C) On January 27, Acting DCM held a meeting with Rashid
Khalikov, Director of the Office for Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in New York, as a follow up to
the one held on January 21 in New York. (reftel) Khalikov
expressed deep concern over the quality of the response by UN
agencies in Pakistan to the growing IDP situation, but he did
not offer a strong outlook on what he believed would be the
next steps for the UN in country. Khalikov indicated he would
not recommend a change in the security posture of the UN
agencies to allow them to work in the less secure affected
areas. He was apprehensive about the idea of closer
cooperation with the military, and said the UN agencies
strongly preferred to keep their distance from military
forces, especially in a situation in which the military is
seen by some of those displaced as part of the reason for the
IDP crisis. He noted that the UN would be willing to consider
conversations or deals with anti-government militants,
similar to the tactics used by ICRC to gain access to
affected areas, but he fears these groups are so fragmented
that protection and access could never be ensured.
Furthermore, the GOP has explicitly informed ICRC and the UN
agencies that only ICRC has its permission to speak with the
anti-government forces. We observed that the status quo was
not acceptable and stressed the need to work more closely
with the military in the absence of no other options.


10. (U) According to the MFA, the UN Secretary General will
be visiting Pakistan on February 4 to meet with GOP and UN
officials.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Although the decision by the Pakistan Military to
become involved with assisting the growing displaced
population is a welcome gesture, it is unlikely that the
Pakistani military would be willing or able to take over the
entire IDP relief effort. However, there is much more they
could do to create the conditions to allow humanitarian
organizations to do their work. Their renewed focus on the
need to take better immediate care of those affected by
operations is also a step in the right direction.


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12. (C) For its part, the international assistance community
needs to not be paralyzed by a non-permissive security
environment. The fact is that there are a number of security
challenges in the areas around the camps and where IDPs are
concentrated, and not all of them are militancy-related. In
the areas around Peshawar, for example, one of the biggest
threats is criminal - kidnappings for ransom, armed robbery,
etc. The UN may need to spend a larger proportion of its
funding on providing for its own security, through security
guard contracts, armored vehicles, better perimeter security
construction, etc.
PATTERSON