ZARDARI AND NAWAZ MEET IN RAIWIND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001658 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2019 TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK SUBJECT: ZARDARI AND NAWAZ MEET IN RAIWIND Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 17, President Zardari and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met outside of Lahore at Sharif's Raiwind estate and discussed ongoing military operations in Pakistan and potential constitutional changes in their first meeting since the Long March crisis. The relationship between the two leaders continues to be marked by a high level of mistrust, and this public event, though it did not achieve anything substantive, was an opportunity for each to try to outmaneuver the other in gaining political capital. They released a joint statement that repeated a commitment to national stability, cooperation between their respective parties, support for the military operations, and to removing the undemocratic Musharraf-era changes to the constitution. End summary. ZARDARI AND SHARIF: VYING FOR POLITICAL POINTS -------------- -- ¶2. (C) On July 17, for the first time since the "Long March" and the restoration of the judiciary in March, President Asif Zardari and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif met at Sharif's Raiwind estate. The relationship between the two leaders continues to be marked by a high level of mistrust, and this public event, though it did not achieve anything substantive, was an opportunity for each to try to outmaneuver the other in gaining political capital. Zardari's calculated trip to Sharif's home attempted to show his control of Pakistan and his magnanimity in reaching out to the opposition. Additionally, Zardari hoped to gain public support by maintaining a relationship with the popular Sharif. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Babar Awan, who was in the meeting, told PolCouns that since the "Long March" most people perceived that there was no working relationship between the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Zardari felt it was wise to accept Sharif's invitation to Raiwind to dispel this misperception, according to Awan. ¶3. (C) Nawaz Sharif also used this photo-op to advance his image as a statesman who is committed to national unity. Additionally, Sharif is actively trying to cultivate his international image as a leader who is beyond petty politics and cares about Pakistan's stability. PML-N leader Khwaja Asif, a participant in the meeting, commented to PolCouns that even though being seen with Zardari "tainted" his party's domestic image, Sharif did so for the stability of Pakistan, including avoiding room for military interference. Asif hinted that Sharif agreed to the meeting in light of Secretary Clinton's anticipated visit to Pakistan. ¶4. (C) The two leaders and their delegations did not make any new decisions, and instead reiterated old pledges to democracy and against militancy. Pakistani press described the meeting as a bid to "normalize" relations between the two most powerful political parties, since they had soured over the judiciary issue. The meeting did not engender any real trust between Zardari and Sharif, but the two will continue to meet in attempts to outflank the other. JOINT STATEMENT: AGREED ON PREVIOUS AGREEMENTS -------------- -- ¶5. (U) After the meeting, a joint statement was released that largely reiterated issues which the two parties had agreed to previously. In the statement, the parties stressed that dialogue and discussions were the essence of the democratic process and doors to meaningful dialogue between the two parties would remain open. The statement resolved to remove all undemocratic clauses from the Constitution that had been added by previous dictatorships, to support the Charter of Democracy, to remove the 17th Amendment, and to address the situation in Balochistan. The joint statement recognized that militancy was the most serious threat to national security and that a holistic approach was needed to address the issue. The two parties agreed to continue contacts and meetings because the problems facing Pakistan were too challenging to be resolved by any one party. CHARTER OF DEMOCRACY & THE 17th AMENDMENT -------------- ISLAMABAD 00001658 002.3 OF 003 ¶6. (C) Much of the meeting focused on implementing both parties' campaign promises to remove "undemocratic" clauses from the constitution. Sharif and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto signed the Charter of Democracy in 2006 agreeing to undo many of former president Musharraf's amendments. Sharif has used this agreement to gain popularity at Zardari's expense, accusing the PPP leader of stalling democratic change. ¶7. (C) At the Raiwind meeting, Zardari promised (again) to amend the constitution to remove the Musharraf-era dictates. For the PPP, this means a return to the famed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto 1973 constitution. Awan insisted that both parties were in agreement on how to amend the constitution, through an amendment to repeal parts of the 17th Amendment while retaining the increased number of National Assembly seats, the increased number of womens' seats, the joint electorate that includes non-Muslims, and all provisions related to the legitimacy of the February 2008 elections. Awan said the government intends to complete the constitutional changes by the end of the year, while he allowed this timeline might slip by a month or two. ¶8. (C) Sharif and the PML-N demanded a schedule for these changes, a move that will play well with the Pakistani public. As Zardari has stalled on some of his campaign promises, Sharif has attempted to hold the high moral ground in the name of democracy. The PML-N's additional requests include a repeal of the two-term limit of prime ministerships-- the only hurdle blocking Sharif from running for his former office. FIGHT AGAINST MILITANCY -------------- ¶9. (C) Cognizant of their international audience, both Sharif and Zardari reiterated that militancy was Pakistan's biggest threat and both leaders vowed to support the military's ongoing operations. For Zardari to maintain the public support of the war it is important ostensibly to build a consensus with the popular Sharif. Moreover the PPP would like to share any inevitable blame with the PML-N. According to Awan, Zardari invited Sharif to meet with all visiting dignitaries to discuss militancy, and the President also offered to send DG/ISI Pasha to brief Sharif on the security situation. ¶10. (C) According to Asif, the PML-N understood that the operations against the militancy could last years, and Sharif's party agreed to support the GOP for the long run. In Asif's view the military operations have helped to rehabilitate the Army's reputation, but have only marginally helped Zardari. Improving the Army's image is important for Sharif, whose party is traditionally seen as pro-military. PAKISTAN'S STABILITY -------------- ¶11. (C) Despite their mutual distrust, during the meeting both leaders committed to the survival of the civilian government and to avoiding military intervention. In the interest of self-preservation, Zardari and Sharif are trying to keep the military out of politics and allow the National Assembly and provincial assemblies to serve constitutional terms. According to Awan, the PPP understood this agreement to mean that there would be no call for mid-term elections and national elections would next be held in 2013. Sensing Zardari's unpopularity, the PML-N is willing to let the assemblies serve their terms as long as the "democratic changes are made to the constitution and the PPP keeps the trust of the public," according to Asif. The PML-N's caveat leaves open the door for a mid-term bid to control the national government, despite Awan's conviction that Nawaz has pledged "non-interference." ¶12. (C) Sharif also gained public points by raising populist issues, such as load shedding, corruption, and a lack of good governance. In response, Zardari invited Sharif and his advisers to help the PPP government find solutions. However, Nawaz was not offered an official place in the ruling coalition, said Awan. ISLAMABAD 00001658 003.2 OF 003 ¶13. (C) Comment: Since the public duel between Zardari and Sharif over the restoration of the judiciary, there has been no public interaction between the two leaders. The Raiwind meeting was an opportunity for the two leaders to try to outmaneuver one another for domestic and international points, while doing little to ameliorate the mistrust between them. The meeting itself was full of platitudes, photo-ops, and reiterations of previous declarations, with no real substantive decisions. The fact that they met was significant in and of itself; both leaders recognize that for their own political survival they must appear to play nice. Zardari wants to tap Sharif's popularity and also force him to share some of the blame for Pakistan's intractable economic and energy problems. Sharif, for his part, can burnish his international image and demand self-serving constitutional changes. The two will continue to meet, but the competition between them will not allow for much substantive progress. PATTERSON