INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN PAKISTAN: TRANSITION TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001654

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREF PREL PHUM EAID PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN PAKISTAN: TRANSITION TO
RETURN


1. (SBU) Summary: With the exception of expected further
displacement from Waziristan, the current internal
displacement from conflict-affected areas in Pakistan appears
close to an end. The government has signed on to principles
of safe, voluntary, informed and dignified return and began
on July 11 to facilitate the return home of the displaced to
Malakand through a phased return plan based on area of
origin. Return to Buner, much of it spontaneous, is
proceeding apace, and life in Buner is returning to normal
although trading centers and main roads are more secure than
more remote villages. Humanitarian attention is turning to
early recovery. Vast areas of Swat, particularly to the
north of Mingora, remain insecure, however, and while returns
to Swat have begun, most Swatis and humanitarian assistance
community representatives believe that conditions are not yet
sufficiently secure to support a return to civilian life. As
the military moves to close in on Baitullah Mehsud in South
Waziristan, displacement into D.I. Khan and Tank has not yet
peaked. Current displacement from South Waziristan is
estimated at over 60,000. Registration and humanitarian
assistance for this displacement will be through the GOP and
a local NGO, as the GOP will permit neither international
humanitarian presence nor the establishment of camps. End
summary.

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Displacement Overview
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2. (SBU) Displacement in Pakistan first began in August 2008
when nearly 100,000 people left Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies
and the Lower Dir District. This first displacement had
reached approximately 556,000 when one of the world's
fastest, largest displacements began in late April and early
May, 2009 from Lower Dir, Buner and Swat as a result of
military operations against the growing taliban presence in
Northwest Frontier Province. Estimates of the total number
of displaced peaked at around 3 million (468,000 families),
registered in a fast-track manner in immediate response to
the humanitarian crisis. A later verification process by the
National Registration and Database Authority weeded out
duplications, split family registrations, fraudulent
registrations, those previously without national identity
cards, and other anomalies and resulted in an initial figure
of less than 2 million verified, registered, displaced
(289,000 families). The current total overall number of
verified displaced individuals, as of July 14, is
approximately 2.289 million, with another 10,000 to 20,000
registrations remaining to be verified and a grievance
process underway for those appealing the decision on their
cases. As of July 14, approximately 2.073 million verified,
registered, displaced individuals are staying with host
families, in schools and in spontaneous camps, and another
216,173 are in 21 official camps.


3. (SBU) The Pakistani government at the federal and
provincial levels and the humanitarian community worked
together in May, June and July to ensure that all IDPs had
access to food, shelter, medicines, water, sanitation and
protection. Despite difficulties and challenges, no IDP was
left hungry, and there were no disease epidemics among the
IDPs. This enormous and successful humanitarian assistance
operation was possible only because thousands of families
across NWFP opened their homes to receive hundreds of
thousands of families who were in search of shelter and
sustenance. Less than 15 percent of all registered IDPs
resided in official camps; the rest availed themselves of the
generosity of fellow Pakistanis. The humanitarian assistance
operation would also not have been a success without the
disproportionately large funding role played by the United
States. In FY 2008 and in FY 2009, the USG has provided more
than USD 171 million in assistance to conflict-affected
populations in Pakistan.


4. (SBU) In mid-May, the Government of Pakistan committed
to provide a PKR 25,000 (USD 310) debit card to each
displaced family. Initial response to this commitment was a
flood of attempted new IDP registrations. After a brief

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government-imposed break in registrations and a thorough
verification process, however, the government began
distributing these cards. As of July 15, debit cards had
been distributed to almost exactly half of the 289,000
verified, registered displaced families.

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Restricting Displaced Access to Benefits
--------------


5. (SBU) On June 16, the NWFP authorities issued a
notification identifying as "Conflict Zones" specific union
councils in Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Buner, Swat and Shangla
"where there is an army operation or imminent fear of an
operation." According to the notification, only people
"displaced in consequence of such fear" from these areas
"will be deemed IDPs." By July 6, the authorities had
further reduced the areas from which IDPs could be newly
registered to just 27 villages in the Charmang Valley of
Bajaur, 25 villages in the Union council of Kabal in Swat,
and 9 villages in the Union Council of Shamozai also in Swat.


6. (SBU) The humanitarian assistance community has expressed
serious concern that this restriction in areas considered
conflict-affected will result in the denial of benefits to
those who may have left home out of understandable and
genuine fear due to military operations in a neighboring
union council. A map of the Conflict Zones identified on
June 16 shows areas in southern Buner not identified as
conflict-affected, and even a non-confict area within Buner
entirely surrounded by Conflict Zones. There is also some
concern that a cash-strapped government has limited the areas
considered conflict-affected to limit its liability for
payment of PKR 25,000 debit cards.


7. (SBU) As of July 17, both spontaneous and facilitated,
voluntary IDP return was ongoing, while the situation in the
camps was tense as many displaced families not only remained
uncertain of the security conditions in their home areas but
also waited, often ill-advisedly, for the government
distribution of the debit cards. In Jalozai camp, for
example, only 9,500 of the 22,000 families at the camp have
verified registrations and thus are entitled to the cards.


8. (SBU) A riot broke out in Yar Hussein Camp when the Camp
Administrator informed IDPs, particularly those with
unverified registrations, that they would receive their next
World Food Program distribution in their home areas.
Following this event, the UN has made and conveyed a policy
decision that all IDPs in camps (whether or not their
registration has been verified) will continue to receive food
and all other humanitarian assistance normally provided in
the camps.

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Continued Needs of IDPs and Hosting Areas
--------------


9. (SBU) As return progresses, support will continue to be
necessary for the small proportion of people who will remain
displaced perhaps because home areas are still or newly
affected by ongoing military operations, or because with the
arrival of winter they cannot return to live in damaged or
destroyed homes, or because they have not received the
government's PKR 25,000 debit card or perhaps because
conditions in camps or hosting arrangements are economically,
socially, or politically more attractive than those in places
of origin. In addition, host communities, which have allowed
IDPs to occupy nearly 4,000 school buildings (now empty
during the school holidays),will require school buildings in
approximately six weeks when more than 700,000 children of
the host communities will need to go back to school. As a
result, alternative accommodation will need to be provided to
nearly 180,000 IDPs if they have not returned home. It
remains to be seen the extent to which humanitarian
assistance and movement of humanitarian assistance personnel
will be constrained by security concerns following the
attempted kidnapping and July 16 shooting death of UNHCR

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personnel at Kacha Gari camp on the outskirts of Peshawar.

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Returns
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10. (SBU) On July 11, 2009, the Government of NWFP and the
humanitarian community came to an agreement on the core
principles, guidelines and standards that would govern the
return process. The core of the resulting return policy
framework, signed by the Provincial Relief Commissioner, on
behalf of the Chief Secretary, and the head of UNHCR's
Peshawar office, on behalf of the humanitarian community, is
that the return of the IDPs should be voluntary, informed,
dignified, safe and sustainable. On July 13, the NWFP
authorities began implementation of a phased, facilitated
return plan, with phases based on the area of origin of the
displaced. Return has run smoothly in its first few days.
UNHCR has found the NWFP authorities to be cooperative, and
there is no/no issue of forced return. The UN has requested,
however, that the NWFP government provide notification of
which Union Councils are safe for return and civilian life,
just as the government previously formally notified which
Union Councils were classified as conflict-affected areas.
The UN is very clear that it is not within its mandate to
determine whether areas are safe for return and that such a
determination is rather a governmental responsibility. The
UN is looking similarly for determinations in relation to the
Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies of FATA.


11. (SBU) UNHCR has agreed to assist and facilitate
transportation. It is providing resources to the NWFP
Emergency Response Unit (ERU) to rent trucks and buses and is
also assisting in documenting return in order to ensure
protection. UNHCR intends to have independent NGO monitors
in the locations of return to monitor conditions, and it will
assist with early recovery. It is considering establishing
linkages between IDP return and assistance that can be
through the UN-GOP agreed program for refugee assisting and
hosting areas (RAHA). IDPs are permitted to take all their
donated non-food items as well as their tent with them when
they return. UNHCR will provide non-food items to all those
who have not received them and will supplement the non-food
items kits of those who may need an additional or replacement
item.


12. (SBU) On July 17, the spokesman of the NWFP Emergency
Response Unit reported that the provincial authorities had
thus far facilitated the return of 8,957 families. The plan
for facilitating return to Buner (where much spontaneous,
voluntary return has already occurred) has five phases based
on areas of return. It targets 11,221 families of the 31,062
IDP families of Buner origin and is scheduled to take 19
days. The phased return to Swat is also phased based on
areas of return but begins first with those IDPs in official
camps and then moves on to those with host families and in
schools and spontaneous camps. The return of Swat IDPs just
from camps is scheduled in three phases over the period July
13 ) 20, and each phase brings IDPs to homes further north
than the previous phase. General Nadeem told the Ambassador
on July 16 that 23 percent of all IDPs had thus far returned
to their home areas. While 70 percent of those displaced
from Buner have returned, only 2 percent of those displaced
from Swat have done so.


13. (SBU) According to the Prime Minister's original
announcement that facilitated return would begin July 13,
total repatriation was to take five to six weeks, although
few in the humanitarian community believe this to be a
reasonable time frame where Swat is concerned.
International Committee of the Red Cross delegation head
Pascal Cuttat has told the Embassy that other than certain
areas in Mingora, nothing in Swat is safe, particularly in
areas north of Mingora, and that there is a substantial
militant presence in vast areas. Surveys in the IDP camps
have found that while virtually everyone in the camps wants
to return home, more than half say it is too early and
unsafe. A USAID/OFDA assessment team found destruction to be

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limited in the areas it surveyed in southern Swat but found
destruction and insecurity to be more extensive in Mingora
and areas to its north. Return appeared to be robust and
organized with many time-consuming checkpoints to ensure
security.


14. (SBU) Both ICRC and the UN agencies believe that the
return process to Swat will not be as easy or as fast as the
government says. In Buner, where the DCO estimates that
return is already at 80 percent, the capital Daggar is seen
by all as safe, although NGO staff members of Buner origin
still express concern about safety in villages far off the
main road. The humanitarian assistance community is already
staging to provide early recovery assistance in Buner. With
USAID/OFDA funding, UNHabitat is ready to assist with
debris-clearing and utility restoration in the virtually
flattened town of Sultanwas. The UN has one food and
non-food hub, and WFP is installing more; WHO is providing
support to the health infrastructure. USAID/OFDA is
initiating a range of grants providing support for housing
repair, livelihood restoration, and health services to
returned populations. There will be a need to make a true
estimate of needs and to provide access to quick disbursing
schemes (including cash for work) to help repair damaged
homes, replant fields, restock herds, re-open business, or
meet basic needs until sustainable jobs can be obtained.


15. (SBU) While perhaps 70 percent of those displaced from
Bajaur have returned home, Bajaur is generating fresh
displacement from conflict-affected areas in the Charmang
Valley.

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South Waziristan
--------------


16. (SBU) South Waziristan represents a humanitarian crisis
that has not yet occurred. All major roads from the East are
blocked, and a military operation with humanitarian
ramifications is expected shortly. The government estimates
that 60,000 people have been displaced. Humanitarian
assistance has been prepositioned in Bakkar. The GOP has
determined that there will be no camps or international
humanitarian presence in D.I. Khan or in Tank, the areas
receiving the displaced. Under agreement with UNHCR, the
Ministry of Social Welfare and a local NGO are undertaking
registration with verification by NADRA. The NGO
representative estimated that 5000 displaced families from
South Waziristan were in D.I. Khan and more than 1600 in
Tank; family size is estimated at ten for this area. USAID
and the UN are also working through the same NGO to provide
assistance to those displaced from Waziristan, and the UN has
prepositioned food and non-food assistance in Bakkar in
Punjab. Access for even an NGO staffed with people from the
area is highly complicated due to fundamental distrust of the
population of those outside the tribe and complex tribal
structures. The UN is preparing for a worst case scenario of
150,000 displaced with the assumption that the conflict will
be limited to South Waziristan and not include North
Waziristan. An estimated 15,000 people have displaced to
Afghanistan, but it is not clear whether these people are
Afghans or Pakistanis.





PATTERSON