PML-N WARNS NSA JONES THAT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001437 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019 TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK SUBJECT: PML-N WARNS NSA JONES THAT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AGAINST TALIBAN IS NARROW Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: National Security Advisor General James Jones joined Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif and several other Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) leaders for lunch on June 25. The PML-N leaders explained to NSA Jones that Pakistani public opinion currently supported the war against the Taliban, primarily because their political party and others had convinced the populace that it was Pakistan's own war. However, all the leaders warned that this window of good will was narrow, and public opinion would soon sour unless the GOP could deliver good governance, access to justice, and economic development. Shahbaz and his fellow PML-N leaders were clear that they wanted a frank and cooperative relationship with the USG, and that they felt that President Zardari did not have the confidence of the Pakistani people. The PML-N appreciated President Obama's outreach to the Muslim world and his regional approach to Pakistan's problems. However, the PML-N felt that a true regional approach could not be undertaken without bringing India to the table. End summary. AN OPPORTUNITY TO SOLVE PROBLEMS -------------- ¶2. (C) Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif conveyed warm regards from his brother, Nawaz Sharif, who was in London for his wife's medical treatments. Shahbaz also extended an invitation to General Jones and Secretary Clinton to the Sharif estate at Raiwind. Shahbaz explained that both the Sharif brothers have a warm relationship with former President Bill Clinton and Secretary Clinton. Shahbaz described a complete change in the PML-N's relationship with the United States in the last year. Under the Musharraf regime, according to Shahbaz, PML-N was marginalized and castigated as being "friends of the militants". Now with the President Obama, PML-N has revived many of their old relationships with USG officials who served in former President Clinton's administration. ¶3. (C) Shahbaz cited this moment in Pakistan as one of great opportunity to solve problems. The two main players in the country, President Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, are on the same side of the militancy issue, he said. Despite differences between Zardari and Nawaz, the two have united the nation in the cause of defending Pakistan. This opportunity can be used to build Pakistan, to alleviate a myriad of problems, and to create deeper understanding with the U.S. Shahbaz commented that this opportunity in Pakistan was coupled with President Obama's message of friendship to the Muslim world. President Obama's speech in Cairo was well received in Pakistan, and despite some critics, it touched the hearts and minds of Pakistanis. Shahbaz said that President Obama was a in a position to "rescue the world" with his genuine and serious message. However, it all rested on implementation. DIRE SECURITY SITUATION -------------- ¶4. (C) Shahbaz explained that the security situation had reached a dire state, but it could have been avoided if better dealt with by the Musharraf regime. He cited Musharraf's basic flaw had been a lack of legitimacy. In Shahbaz's opinion the Musharraf regime went beyond its understanding of issues and as a result made Pakistanis believe that this was not their war. In response to General Jones' question about the tipping point in terms of Pakistani opinion, Shahbaz explained that it was both the election of a civilian-led government and the stance of the PML-N supporting cooperation with the U.S. The PML-N had a strong nationalist stance, and would defend Pakistan's interests. Pakistanis felt that the PML-N would not "roll over" to U.S. demands. Shahbaz used his meeting with Ambassador Holbrooke as an example of his party's frank exchange with the USG. ¶5. (C) On solving the security situation, Shahbaz stressed that the solution would take time as the problem did not arise overnight. The most important thing that the PML-N feels it is doing is convincing Pakistanis that this is their war. NSA Jones welcomed this effort. ISLAMABAD 00001437 002 OF 004 KEEPING PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE WAR -------------- ¶6. (C) To continue to receive public support for the war, Shahbaz stressed that the GOP must treat the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) well in camps, help them to return home, and then launch an effective and diligent rehabilitation program. If these things are not done properly, the GOP will push the IDPs back into the arms of the Taliban. Ishaq Dar explained that as Chief Minister of Punjab, Shahbaz was preparing camps for the arrival of IDPs in his province. Already 30,000 IDPs have arrived in northern Punjab, and they were expecting many more from South Waziristan. ¶7. (C) Shahbaz said that the spread of "Talibanization" can not be stopped by the military alone, the GOP needs to use both "the stick and the carrot." The most vulnerable people need the GOP to deliver good governance, assure them of uplift, and help them build a standard of life that includes education, health, and security. He further described the Taliban as a "vision," defining the only alternative manner of finding justice in a country where the government often let people down. ¶8. (C) Parliamentary Leader of the Opposition Chaudhry Nisar opined that several incidents have cumulatively caused people to reject the Taliban. Under the last regime, Musharraf was seen as duplicitous and synonymous with the U.S. During 2006-07, if Musharraf had launched a serious military operation against the Taliban, he would have faced opposition even within his own ranks. With General Kayani as the Army Chief, people have confidence in the armed forces, and there is for the first time a vigor and will for a decisive fight. The second factor, in Nisar's opinion, is approach of the civilian government where parliament is briefed on national security and then does its homework convincing its constituents. Nisar gave the example of his northern Punjab constituency from where many Pakistani soldiers hail. During Musharraf's regime, people would not attend the funerals of soldiers killed in battle, whereas now people come from other villages to the fallen soldier's funeral and praise him as a "martyr." ¶9. (C) However, Nisar warned NSA Jones that the tide of public opinion has not completely turned and the window of opportunity is narrow. The Pakistani people still demand transparency, rule of law, and justice from the GOP. According to Nisar, the current GOP has inherent weaknesses and there is a lack of credibility on Zardari's part. Nisar believes the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the GOP would have been better off with Zardari as PPP Co-Chairman and not president. Nisar praised Prime Minister Gilani as someone who enjoys support across political parties. Nisar suggested that though Gilani has his limits, he would be better off as the chief executive because Gilani has his head in the "right place." The PML-N, despite reservations about its transparency, supported the budget because of Gilani. The PML-N leaders had told Kayani, when the General briefed the party on military operations, that there is a limited Pakistani tolerance for military action. In light of this, Nisar reiterated that the GOP needed a political solution coupled with the military one. US-PAK RELATIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Nisar noted that the new Obama administration was positive for Pakistan, and it allows people to distance themselves from the anti-Americanism of the "Mush-Bush" years. The PML-N, Nisar explained, was not looking for USG direction or for help getting into power. Actually, Nisar said that PML-N's poll ratings fall every time they are seen to be close to the USG. However, the PML-N shares certain values with the U.S., namely the importance of private market economics, privatization, rule of law, and democracy. Nisar described PML-N as a nationalist, patriotic party that is slightly right of center. The PML-N believes that a close relationship with the U.S. is in the interest of Pakistan, however, Nisar stressed that his party would be clear about where it differs with the U.S. and wanted a relationship ISLAMABAD 00001437 003 OF 004 based on mutual trust. The PML-N has worked closely with three past USG administrations, and Nisar used the example of the first Gulf War as one where his party had supported the U.S. in spite of Pakistani popular opinion. In other instances, such as the nuclear tests of 1998, the PML-N had been frank about its difference of opinion with the USG. JUDICIAL, ECONOMIC, INSTITUTIONAL PROBLEMS -------------- ¶11. (C) Ishaq Dar commented that the civilian government needed to quell Pakistani public demand for "speedy justice." In Pakistan, the appellate and judicial processes were disconnected and many pending cases sit for years. Fixing the judicial system would undercut the draw of the Taliban. Additionally, aid money must be carefully monitored and IDP funds should not be mixed with other development funds, according to Dar. For longer term development, the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) are key in the PML-N's view. Shahbaz reiterated that the "good mood" will not be endless, and the government must provide security and economic growth. Pakistan can not depend on foreign aid alone and needs to effectively control its own economy. This will require serious leadership from Islamabad and credibility in the minds of Pakistanis. ¶12. (C) Nisar examined the larger institutional situation in Pakistan and expressed the PML-N view that Pakistan needed a soft revolution through the ballot box. Until the country had a government with "revolutionary vision," Pakistan would always be on the "brink." Nisar explained that PML-N has had many in-house discussion about unconventional and creative ways to solve Pakistan's problems. The PML-N understands that the U.S. can not remain in Pakistan and Afghanistan forever, and thus it has to be the GOP that looks after its own country's security. Ultimately it will be the will of the people that will decide the course of events, and the biggest battering of the Taliban will be when the U.S. leaves because Pakistan will realize it must look after itself. The underlying weakness in regional security, according to Nisar, is the situation in Afghanistan. The PML-N is willing to work with the Karzai government, because in the end the GOA will also have to handle its own security. PAK-INDIA RELATIONS -------------- ¶13. (C) Nisar opined that regional security has to include India as well. Even though Pakistan has had long-standing animosity with India, the PML-N was the first party to win an election in 1997 on the slogan "peace with India," and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, with his roots in Punjab, was able to reach out to India. The PML-N is supportive of friendship with India but feels the Indian response is not productive. Until the issue of Indian involvement in Balochistan and other border areas is addressed, real cooperation can not be achieved. Nisar declared that the real key to stability in the region was peace between India and Pakistan. ¶14. (C) Shahbaz highlighted how much India and Pakistan have in common, and he envisioned an agenda of trade and investment with India that would benefit and stabilize Pakistan and the region. However, according to Shahbaz, to reach such a beneficial understanding, both countries have to sincerely agree to end cross-border terrorism. Shahbaz cited several examples of Nawaz Sharif promoting a reduction of tensions and a sharing of resources, including his suggestion to send the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to India after the 2008 Mumbai attack. Shahbaz cited his own efforts as Punjab Chief Minister to crack down on jihadi camps, and he believed that this was the first time that Pakistanis were admitting their mistakes in supporting such militants. Shahbaz did not think that India was ready to accept its mistakes in fomenting cross-border insurgency. Ultimately, Shahbaz said that this understanding can only be reached through USG intervention. ¶15. (C) NSA Jones affirmed this was a strategic moment in time for both Pakistan and Afghanistan. President Obama is committed to a strategic and regional approach to counter ISLAMABAD 00001437 004 OF 004 these sophisticated threats. NSA Jones described the security situation as the attack of extremism on the voices of moderation. He appreciated the PML-N sentiment that there is a finite period of time to get this right. NSA Jones agreed with the PML-N leaders that the USG will not be here forever, but at the current time the USG is willing to dedicate extraordinary resources to build Pakistani capacity. NSA Jones appreciated Pakistan's resolve to solve this problem, and he reiterated the USG's willingness to support Pakistan in this fight. ¶16. (C) Present in the lunch meeting in addition to NSA Jones and Ambassador Patterson were: NSC Staff Senior Director Don Camp, NSC Staff Afghanistan Senior Director Col. John Tien, NSC Staff Senior Policy Advisor Matt Spence, NSC Staff Communications Senior Director Mike Hammer, Washington Post's Bob Woodward, National Geographic Society's John Fahey, and Embassy A/PolCouns. GOP participants in addition to Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif included: National Assembly Opposition Leader Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, Senator Ishaq Dar, and former Senator Shafqat Mahmood. ¶17. (SBU) NSA Jones cleared this cable. PATTERSON